LEDGER
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La Liga
Real Betis
5–2Finished
Osasuna
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 17:30 BSTMatchday 8

Real Betis v Osasuna match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 11 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Real Betis are favoured at home with a 56% win probability against Osasuna's 19%, with a draw at 25%. The model expects 2.78 total goals and a 0.84 expected goals gap in Betis's favour.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 56%Real Betis win
  • 25%Draw
  • 19%Osasuna win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Real BetisReal Betis

Last 5: 4 wins, 1 draw, no defeats

OsasunaOsasuna

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Real Betis won 31 of 49 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Osasuna won 17 of 30 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Real Betis won 6 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Real Betis unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Real Betis 6, draws 3, Osasuna 1

Goals: Real Betis 18, Osasuna 9

DateMatchScore
12 Apr 2026Osasuna v Real Betis1–1
28 Sep 2025Real Betis v Osasuna2–0
11 May 2025Real Betis v Osasuna1–1
19 Oct 2024Osasuna v Real Betis1–2
5 May 2024Osasuna v Real Betis0–2
29 Oct 2023Real Betis v Osasuna2–1
22 Apr 2023Osasuna v Real Betis3–2
18 Jan 2023Real Betis v OsasunaCopa del Rey1–1 PEN 2–2
26 Aug 2022Real Betis v Osasuna1–0
3 Apr 2022Real Betis v Osasuna4–1

Home and away

Real Betis

Real Betis at home

Last 5: 5 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonGetafe17 Sep 20261–0
  • WonReal Madrid4 Sep 20261–0
  • WonReal Sociedad21 Aug 20261–0
  • WonLevante23 May 20262–1
  • WonElche12 May 20262–1

Real Betis: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
14 scored, 6 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10
Osasuna

Osasuna away

Last 5: 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostAtletico Madrid16 Sep 20260–4
  • LostAlaves6 Sep 20262–5
  • WonCelta Vigo27 Aug 20262–1
  • LostGetafe23 May 20260–1
  • LostLevante8 May 20262–3

Osasuna: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
9 scored, 21 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Real Betis
Last match
21 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga
Next match
3 days after14 Oct 2026 · v FC Porto · UEFA Champions League
Osasuna
Last match
22 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Rayo Vallecano · La Liga
Next match
7 days after18 Oct 2026 · v Racing Santander · La Liga

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Real Betis

ScoreReal BetisLeague sides
Scored first31 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 49 matches755 won, 243 drawn, 143 lost in 1141 matches
Conceded first9 won, 11 drawn, 15 lost in 35 matches143 won, 243 drawn, 755 lost in 1141 matches
1 goal up at half-time12 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches326 won, 124 drawn, 60 lost in 510 matches
Level at half-time15 won, 11 drawn, 8 lost in 34 matches342 won, 368 drawn, 342 lost in 1052 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes15 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches362 won, 118 drawn, 38 lost in 518 matches
Level after 60 minutes12 won, 13 drawn, 3 lost in 28 matches263 won, 376 drawn, 263 lost in 902 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes18 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches393 won, 102 drawn, 26 lost in 521 matches
Level after 70 minutes6 won, 16 drawn, 3 lost in 25 matches205 won, 414 drawn, 205 lost in 824 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes20 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches408 won, 87 drawn, 12 lost in 507 matches
Level after 80 minutes5 won, 18 drawn, 2 lost in 25 matches151 won, 446 drawn, 151 lost in 748 matches
Level after 15 minutes29 won, 20 drawn, 10 lost in 59 matches638 won, 482 drawn, 638 lost in 1758 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes17 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches289 won, 99 drawn, 61 lost in 449 matches
Level after 30 minutes17 won, 16 drawn, 7 lost in 40 matches471 won, 418 drawn, 471 lost in 1360 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes6 won, 6 drawn, 10 lost in 22 matches61 won, 99 drawn, 289 lost in 449 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreReal BetisLeague sides
All matches24 scored, 22 conceded (87)783 scored, 783 conceded (2428)
When leading after 75 minutes4 scored, 10 conceded (38)278 scored, 272 conceded (823)
When level after 75 minutes7 scored, 6 conceded (26)233 scored, 233 conceded (782)
When trailing after 75 minutes13 scored, 6 conceded (23)272 scored, 278 conceded (823)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 26(league sides: 1,281 times, within 15 minutes 212, by full time 598)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Osasuna

ScoreOsasunaLeague sides
Scored first17 won, 8 drawn, 5 lost in 30 matches755 won, 243 drawn, 143 lost in 1141 matches
Conceded first4 won, 11 drawn, 24 lost in 39 matches143 won, 243 drawn, 755 lost in 1141 matches
1 goal up at half-time12 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 21 matches326 won, 124 drawn, 60 lost in 510 matches
Level at half-time5 won, 14 drawn, 12 lost in 31 matches342 won, 368 drawn, 342 lost in 1052 matches
Level after 60 minutes8 won, 15 drawn, 9 lost in 32 matches263 won, 376 drawn, 263 lost in 902 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 25 matches205 won, 414 drawn, 205 lost in 824 matches
Level after 80 minutes5 won, 15 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches151 won, 446 drawn, 151 lost in 748 matches
Level after 15 minutes16 won, 17 drawn, 23 lost in 56 matches638 won, 482 drawn, 638 lost in 1758 matches
Level after 30 minutes9 won, 16 drawn, 15 lost in 40 matches471 won, 418 drawn, 471 lost in 1360 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreOsasunaLeague sides
All matches26 scored, 19 conceded (74)783 scored, 783 conceded (2428)
When level after 75 minutes10 scored, 7 conceded (26)233 scored, 233 conceded (782)
When trailing after 75 minutes10 scored, 5 conceded (29)272 scored, 278 conceded (823)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 19(league sides: 1,281 times, within 15 minutes 212, by full time 598)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

Real BetisOsasuna
74Matches with xG74
106.73xG for91.12
117Goals scored85
99.87xG against101.89
97Goals conceded101

Real Betis

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Real Betis: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026at Deportivo La Coruna0.802.091–1
17 Sep 2026v Getafe1.890.291–0
14 Sep 2026at Villarreal3.521.892–1
4 Sep 2026v Real Madrid0.933.461–0
29 Aug 2026at Levante1.922.762–5
25 Aug 2026at Valencia0.711.121–0
21 Aug 2026v Real Sociedad1.241.361–0
23 May 2026v Levante1.512.282–1
17 May 2026at Barcelona0.971.121–3
12 May 2026v Elche1.800.402–1

Osasuna

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Osasuna: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026v Rayo Vallecano0.531.011–1
16 Sep 2026at Atletico Madrid0.483.990–4
12 Sep 2026v Espanyol1.051.430–2
6 Sep 2026at Alaves1.641.202–5
31 Aug 2026v Getafe1.680.681–0
27 Aug 2026at Celta Vigo2.600.142–1
24 Aug 2026v Levante0.701.280–0
23 May 2026at Getafe0.510.210–1
17 May 2026v Espanyol1.720.791–2
12 May 2026v Atletico Madrid2.301.561–2

This league season

La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.

Real BetisOsasuna
7 of 7Matches with xG7 of 7
16Points in those matches8
8.82xPts9.55
11.01xG for8.68
12.97xG against9.73

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Real Betis and Osasuna

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Real BetisReal BetisJ. Firpo (Groin Injury) · A. Ruibal (Knee Injury)
  • OsasunaOsasunaR. Del Castillo (Muscle Injury) · J. Herrando (Muscle Injury) · R. Moro (Muscle Injury) · K. Barja (Muscle Injury)

Published 11 Oct 2026, 17:13 BST · not changed since

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