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La Liga
Real Madrid
4–1Finished
Sevilla
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 20:00 BSTMatchday 9 · Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid

Real Madrid v Sevilla match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Real Madrid are heavily favoured by the model with a 75% chance of victory. The expected goal difference of 1.7 in Madrid's favour underpins that assessment, though both teams have significant injury absences and lineups remain unconfirmed.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 75%Real Madrid win
  • 16%Draw
  • 9%Sevilla win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Real MadridReal Madrid

Last 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat

SevillaSevilla

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • La Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 250 of 315.
  • Sevilla won 18 of 31 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
  • Real Madrid won 9 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Real Madrid unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Real Madrid 9, draws 1, Sevilla 0

Goals: Real Madrid 21, Sevilla 8

DateMatchScore
17 May 2026Sevilla v Real Madrid0–1
20 Dec 2025Real Madrid v Sevilla2–0
18 May 2025Sevilla v Real Madrid0–2
22 Dec 2024Real Madrid v Sevilla4–2
25 Feb 2024Real Madrid v Sevilla1–0
21 Oct 2023Sevilla v Real Madrid1–1
27 May 2023Sevilla v Real Madrid1–2
22 Oct 2022Real Madrid v Sevilla3–1
17 Apr 2022Sevilla v Real Madrid2–3
28 Nov 2021Real Madrid v Sevilla2–1

Home and away

Real Madrid

Real Madrid at home

Last 5: 5 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonVillarreal10 Oct 20261–0
  • WonRayo Vallecano12 Sep 20264–1
  • WonInterUEFA Champions League8 Sep 20262–1
  • WonMalaga30 Aug 20264–0
  • WonReal Sociedad26 Aug 20264–1

Real Madrid: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
29 scored, 9 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Sevilla

Sevilla away

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • DrawnLevante12 Oct 20263–3
  • WonDeportivo La Coruna16 Sep 20261–0
  • DrawnEspanyol6 Sep 20261–1
  • WonAthletic Club22 Aug 20263–1
  • LostCelta Vigo23 May 20260–1

Sevilla: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
14 scored, 18 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Real Madrid
Last match
4 days before14 Oct 2026 · v AS Roma · UEFA Champions League
Next match
3 days after21 Oct 2026 · v RB Leipzig · UEFA Champions League
Sevilla
Last match
6 days before12 Oct 2026 · v Levante · La Liga
Next match
8 days after26 Oct 2026 · v Osasuna · La Liga

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 20 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Sevilla

ScoreSevillaLeague sides
Scored first18 won, 8 drawn, 5 lost in 31 matches761 won, 246 drawn, 143 lost in 1150 matches
Conceded first5 won, 8 drawn, 30 lost in 43 matches143 won, 246 drawn, 761 lost in 1150 matches
Level at half-time13 won, 8 drawn, 15 lost in 36 matches344 won, 376 drawn, 344 lost in 1064 matches
Level after 60 minutes8 won, 9 drawn, 9 lost in 26 matches264 won, 382 drawn, 264 lost in 910 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes1 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches38 won, 120 drawn, 366 lost in 524 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 6 drawn, 16 lost in 23 matches26 won, 104 drawn, 396 lost in 526 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 8 drawn, 8 lost in 20 matches152 won, 452 drawn, 152 lost in 756 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches12 won, 89 drawn, 410 lost in 511 matches
Level after 15 minutes15 won, 10 drawn, 28 lost in 53 matches641 won, 488 drawn, 641 lost in 1770 matches
Level after 30 minutes13 won, 9 drawn, 23 lost in 45 matches474 won, 424 drawn, 474 lost in 1372 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreSevillaLeague sides
All matches24 scored, 29 conceded (75)792 scored, 792 conceded (2450)
When leading after 75 minutes5 scored, 8 conceded (23)282 scored, 276 conceded (830)
When trailing after 75 minutes14 scored, 14 conceded (34)276 scored, 282 conceded (830)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 49 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 22(league sides: 1,291 times, within 15 minutes 212, by full time 603)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Real MadridSevilla
75Since 19 Oct 2024Matches with xG75Since 20 Oct 2024
155.44xG for78.21
155Goals scored92
85.43xG against105.30
75Goals conceded117

Real Madrid

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Real Madrid: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026v Villarreal1.430.591–0
20 Sep 2026at Atletico Madrid0.302.351–2
15 Sep 2026at Elche3.610.783–2
12 Sep 2026v Rayo Vallecano2.621.214–1
4 Sep 2026at Real Betis3.460.930–1
30 Aug 2026v Malaga2.620.714–0
26 Aug 2026v Real Sociedad3.140.574–1
22 Aug 2026at Espanyol2.711.052–1
23 May 2026v Athletic Club1.900.814–2
17 May 2026at Sevilla1.000.721–0

Sevilla

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Sevilla: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
12 Oct 2026at Levante2.201.823–3
19 Sep 2026v Barcelona0.403.471–3
16 Sep 2026at Deportivo La Coruna0.730.141–0
11 Sep 2026v Valencia0.930.101–0
6 Sep 2026at Espanyol0.531.231–1
29 Aug 2026v Atletico Madrid0.900.931–3
22 Aug 2026at Athletic Club0.411.253–1
15 Aug 2026v Rayo Vallecano2.191.892–1
23 May 2026at Celta Vigo0.801.590–1
17 May 2026v Real Madrid0.721.000–1

This league season

La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.

Real MadridSevilla
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
18Points in those matches14
17.27xPts10.04
19.89xG for8.29
8.19xG against10.83

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Real Madrid and Sevilla

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Real MadridReal Madrid
    Ruled out
    R. Asencio (Broken Leg) · Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) · Rodrygo (Knee Injury) · Vinicius Junior (Red Card)
    Doubtful
    F. Mendy (Hip Injury)
  • SevillaSevilla
    Ruled out
    J. Guridi (Muscle Injury) · Marcao (Muscle Injury) · I. Romero (Red Card) · M. Sierra (Shoulder Injury)
    Doubtful
    G. Kochorashvili (Injury)

Published 18 Oct 2026, 19:37 BST · not changed since

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