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La Liga
Real Madrid
1–0Finished
Villarreal
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 20:00 BST

Real Madrid v Villarreal match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 65%Real Madrid win
  • 19%Draw
  • 16%Villarreal win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Real MadridReal Madrid

Last 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats

VillarrealVillarreal

Last 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • La Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 246 of 310.
  • Villarreal won 34 of 50 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
  • Real Madrid won 6 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Real Madrid unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Real Madrid 6, draws 2, Villarreal 2

Goals: Real Madrid 23, Villarreal 14

DateMatchScore
24 Jan 2026Villarreal v Real Madrid0–2
4 Oct 2025Real Madrid v Villarreal3–1
15 Mar 2025Villarreal v Real Madrid1–2
5 Oct 2024Real Madrid v Villarreal2–0
19 May 2024Villarreal v Real Madrid4–4
17 Dec 2023Real Madrid v Villarreal4–1
8 Apr 2023Real Madrid v Villarreal2–3
19 Jan 2023Villarreal v Real MadridCopa del Rey2–3
7 Jan 2023Villarreal v Real Madrid2–1
12 Feb 2022Villarreal v Real Madrid0–0

Home and away

Real Madrid

Real Madrid at home

Last 5: 5 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonRayo Vallecano12 Sep 20264–1
  • WonInterUEFA Champions League8 Sep 20262–1
  • WonMalaga30 Aug 20264–0
  • WonReal Sociedad26 Aug 20264–1
  • WonAthletic Club23 May 20264–2

Real Madrid: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
28 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Villarreal

Villarreal away

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonMalaga17 Sep 20263–1
  • LostBorussia DortmundUEFA Champions League8 Sep 20262–3
  • LostAlaves28 Aug 20260–1
  • DrawnAtletico Madrid23 Aug 20262–2
  • DrawnRacing Santander16 Aug 20262–2

Villarreal: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
12 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Real Madrid
Last match
20 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Atletico Madrid · La Liga
Next match
4 days after14 Oct 2026 · v AS Roma · UEFA Champions League
Villarreal
Last match
20 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Levante · La Liga
Next match
3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Napoli · UEFA Champions League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 20 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Villarreal

ScoreVillarrealLeague sides
Scored first34 won, 11 drawn, 5 lost in 50 matches753 won, 243 drawn, 143 lost in 1139 matches
Conceded first5 won, 5 drawn, 22 lost in 32 matches143 won, 243 drawn, 753 lost in 1139 matches
1 goal up at half-time14 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches326 won, 124 drawn, 60 lost in 510 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 7 drawn, 9 lost in 27 matches341 won, 366 drawn, 341 lost in 1048 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes1 won, 4 drawn, 16 lost in 21 matches38 won, 118 drawn, 362 lost in 518 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes20 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches272 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 280 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 9 drawn, 5 lost in 21 matches205 won, 412 drawn, 205 lost in 822 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes15 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches407 won, 87 drawn, 12 lost in 506 matches
Level after 15 minutes28 won, 14 drawn, 18 lost in 60 matches637 won, 480 drawn, 637 lost in 1754 matches
Level after 30 minutes22 won, 10 drawn, 13 lost in 45 matches470 won, 416 drawn, 470 lost in 1356 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreVillarrealLeague sides
All matches26 scored, 27 conceded (83)783 scored, 783 conceded (2422)
When leading after 75 minutes12 scored, 14 conceded (37)278 scored, 272 conceded (821)
When level after 75 minutes10 scored, 7 conceded (20)233 scored, 233 conceded (780)
When trailing after 75 minutes4 scored, 6 conceded (26)272 scored, 278 conceded (821)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 41 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 18(league sides: 1,279 times, within 15 minutes 212, by full time 598)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Real MadridVillarreal
74Since 19 Oct 2024Matches with xG74Since 20 Oct 2024
154.01xG for125.36
154Goals scored139
84.84xG against88.23
75Goals conceded92

Real Madrid

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Real Madrid: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026at Atletico Madrid0.302.351–2
15 Sep 2026at Elche3.610.783–2
12 Sep 2026v Rayo Vallecano2.621.214–1
4 Sep 2026at Real Betis3.460.930–1
30 Aug 2026v Malaga2.620.714–0
26 Aug 2026v Real Sociedad3.140.574–1
22 Aug 2026at Espanyol2.711.052–1
23 May 2026v Athletic Club1.900.814–2
17 May 2026at Sevilla1.000.721–0
14 May 2026v Oviedo1.361.042–0

Villarreal

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Villarreal: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026v Levante4.270.453–1
17 Sep 2026at Malaga3.330.633–1
14 Sep 2026v Real Betis1.893.521–2
5 Sep 2026v Deportivo La Coruna1.140.792–3
28 Aug 2026at Alaves1.400.810–1
23 Aug 2026at Atletico Madrid3.600.782–2
16 Aug 2026at Racing Santander0.671.872–2
24 May 2026v Atletico Madrid2.481.165–1
17 May 2026at Rayo Vallecano0.971.490–2
13 May 2026v Sevilla0.830.872–3

This league season

La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.

Real MadridVillarreal
7 of 7Matches with xG7 of 7
15Points in those matches8
15.27xPts12.99
18.46xG for16.30
7.60xG against8.85

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Real Madrid and Villarreal

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Real MadridReal MadridR. Asencio (Broken Leg) · Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) · D. Huijsen (Red Card) · F. Mendy (Hip Injury) · Rodrygo (Knee Injury)
  • VillarrealVillarrealT. Buchanan (Muscle Injury)

Published 10 Oct 2026, 18:12 BST · not changed since

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