Samsunspor v Amed match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Amed are favoured to win, with the model giving them a 49% chance against Samsunspor's 26%. Samsunspor have lost their last five games. The model expects 2.89 goals.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 26%Samsunspor win
- 25%Draw
- 49%Amed win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
SamsunsporLast 5: no wins, no draws, 5 defeats
AmedLast 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats
Head-to-head
Head-to-head data was not available for this match.
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Samsunspor won 21 of 30 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
- Süper Lig, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 199 of 254.
- Amed without a win in their last 3 away games.
- Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Samsunspor's last 10 home league games.
Home and away
SamsunsporSamsunspor at home
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- LostTrabzonspor10 Oct 20260–3
- LostÇorum FK12 Sep 20261–5
- LostFenerbahçe30 Aug 20260–2
- DrawnGöztepe17 Aug 20263–3
- WonGöztepe16 May 20263–0
Samsunspor: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 17 scored, 18 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
AmedAmed away
Last 3: 0 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- DrawnGençlerbirliği S.K.10 Oct 20262–2
- DrawnKasımpaşa6 Sep 20262–2
- LostKocaelispor24 Aug 20260–2
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Samsunspor- Last match
- 6 days before18 Oct 2026 · v Kasımpaşa · Süper Lig
- Next match
- 8 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Başakşehir · Süper Lig
Amed- Last match
- 7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Konyaspor · Süper Lig
- Next match
- 8 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Eyüpspor · Süper Lig
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 26 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Samsunspor
| Score | Samsunspor | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 21 won, 6 drawn, 3 lost in 30 matches | 674 won, 198 drawn, 146 lost in 1018 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 5 drawn, 21 lost in 32 matches | 146 won, 198 drawn, 674 lost in 1018 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 15 won, 6 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches | 316 won, 109 drawn, 55 lost in 480 matches |
| Level at half-time | 6 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches | 274 won, 326 drawn, 274 lost in 874 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 14 drawn, 3 lost in 23 matches | 199 won, 338 drawn, 199 lost in 736 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 14 drawn, 2 lost in 23 matches | 159 won, 380 drawn, 159 lost in 698 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 6 won, 15 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches | 119 won, 416 drawn, 119 lost in 654 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 18 won, 16 drawn, 16 lost in 50 matches | 552 won, 460 drawn, 552 lost in 1564 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 18 won, 14 drawn, 7 lost in 39 matches | 399 won, 356 drawn, 399 lost in 1154 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Samsunspor | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 26 scored, 25 conceded (71) | 747 scored, 747 conceded (2206) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 15 conceded (25) | 295 scored, 260 conceded (768) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 1 conceded (20) | 192 scored, 192 conceded (670) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 9 conceded (26) | 260 scored, 295 conceded (768) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 36 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 16(league sides: 1,174 times, within 15 minutes 204, by full time 523)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 26 Oct 2024
| Samsunspor | Amed | |
|---|---|---|
| 68 | Matches with xG | — |
| 89.29 | xG for | — |
| 91 | Goals scored | — |
| 85.46 | xG against | — |
| 96 | Goals conceded | — |
Samsunspor
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | at Kasımpaşa | 1.13 | 2.60 | 1–4 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Trabzonspor | 1.66 | 2.02 | 0–3 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Erzurumspor FK | 0.36 | 0.72 | 0–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Çorum FK | 1.23 | 1.73 | 1–5 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at Kocaelispor | 1.74 | 1.59 | 0–1 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Fenerbahçe | 0.46 | 1.56 | 0–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Rizespor | 0.33 | 1.85 | 2–0 |
| 17 Aug 2026 | v Göztepe | 2.80 | 1.71 | 3–3 |
| 16 May 2026 | v Göztepe | 2.11 | 2.20 | 3–0 |
| 9 May 2026 | at Başakşehir | 0.32 | 3.31 | 0–3 |
Samsunspor: 1 without xG left out
This league season
Süper Lig matches since 14 Aug 2026.
| Samsunspor | Amed | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 4 | Points in those matches | 17 |
| 8.16 | xPts | 15.62 |
| 9.71 | xG for | 15.13 |
| 13.78 | xG against | 6.66 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Samsunspor and Amed
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- J. Assoumou (Muscle Injury) · F. Kaya (Inactive) · C. Yuksel (Injury)
- Ruled out
- L. Dellova (Muscle Injury) · M. Yildirim (Muscle Injury)
- Doubtful
- Y. Sor (Muscle Injury)
Published 24 Oct 2026, 15:58 BST · not changed since
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