Serie A1–1Finished

AC Milan

Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 17:00 BSTMatchday 6

Sassuolo v AC Milan match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 11 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

AC Milan are expected to win with a 42% probability to Sassuolo's 30%. Sassuolo's injury troubles—with eight players ruled out—compound the challenge of facing a stronger opponent. The expected goal total is 2.67.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

30%Sassuolo win
28%Draw
42%AC Milan win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Sassuolo

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

AC Milan

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

Sassuolo won 20 of 25 matches in which they scored first, since 1 Mar 2025.
AC Milan won 37 of 49 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Sassuolo's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

9 meetings: Sassuolo 3, draws 3, AC Milan 3

Goals: Sassuolo 16, AC Milan 18

Date	Match	Score
3 May 2026	Sassuolo v AC Milan	2–0
14 Dec 2025	AC Milan v Sassuolo	2–2
3 Dec 2024	AC Milan v SassuoloCoppa Italia	6–1
14 Apr 2024	Sassuolo v AC Milan	3–3
30 Dec 2023	AC Milan v Sassuolo	1–0
29 Jan 2023	AC Milan v Sassuolo	2–5
30 Aug 2022	Sassuolo v AC Milan	0–0
22 May 2022	Sassuolo v AC Milan	0–3
28 Nov 2021	AC Milan v Sassuolo	1–3

Home and away

Sassuolo

Sassuolo at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

WonJuventus13 Sep 20263–2
DrawnFrosinoneCoppa Italia2 Sep 20261–1 PEN
WonTorino29 Aug 20262–1
WonCesenaCoppa Italia17 Aug 20263–0
LostLecce17 May 20262–3

Sassuolo: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals: 18 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored: 6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals: 8 of 10
Clean sheets: 2 of 10

AC Milan

AC Milan away

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

DrawnLazio12 Sep 20262–2
DrawnJuventus6 Sep 20261–1
WonTorino23 Aug 20262–1
WonGenoa17 May 20262–1
LostSassuolo3 May 20260–2

AC Milan: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals: 12 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored: 5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals: 4 of 10
Clean sheets: 2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Sassuolo

Last match: 23 days before18 Sep 2026 · v Monza · Serie A
Next match: 5 days after16 Oct 2026 · v Frosinone · Serie A

AC Milan

Last match: 21 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Lecce · Serie A
Next match: 4 days after15 Oct 2026 · v Red Bull Salzburg · UEFA Europa League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Sassuolo

Since 1 Mar 2025

Score	Sassuolo	League sides
Scored first	20 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 25 matches	744 won, 234 drawn, 123 lost in 1101 matches
Conceded first	4 won, 4 drawn, 22 lost in 30 matches	123 won, 234 drawn, 744 lost in 1101 matches
Level after 15 minutes	17 won, 7 drawn, 14 lost in 38 matches	606 won, 530 drawn, 606 lost in 1742 matches
Level after 30 minutes	10 won, 7 drawn, 8 lost in 25 matches	442 won, 422 drawn, 442 lost in 1306 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
Score	Sassuolo	League sides
All matches	15 scored, 18 conceded (57)	694 scored, 694 conceded (2392)
When leading after 75 minutes	6 scored, 5 conceded (23)	243 scored, 222 conceded (808)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 32 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 16(league sides: 1,225 times, within 15 minutes 179, by full time 545)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

AC Milan

Since 19 Oct 2024

Score	AC Milan	League sides
Scored first	37 won, 10 drawn, 2 lost in 49 matches	744 won, 234 drawn, 123 lost in 1101 matches
Conceded first	9 won, 7 drawn, 19 lost in 35 matches	123 won, 234 drawn, 744 lost in 1101 matches
1 goal up at half-time	17 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 23 matches	329 won, 120 drawn, 56 lost in 505 matches
Level at half-time	22 won, 12 drawn, 9 lost in 43 matches	315 won, 392 drawn, 315 lost in 1022 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes	18 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches	367 won, 110 drawn, 34 lost in 511 matches
Level after 60 minutes	14 won, 12 drawn, 7 lost in 33 matches	235 won, 404 drawn, 235 lost in 874 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes	23 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 29 matches	385 won, 93 drawn, 22 lost in 500 matches
Level after 70 minutes	8 won, 13 drawn, 5 lost in 26 matches	179 won, 446 drawn, 179 lost in 804 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes	24 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 27 matches	429 won, 83 drawn, 11 lost in 523 matches
Level after 80 minutes	5 won, 16 drawn, 2 lost in 23 matches	109 won, 484 drawn, 109 lost in 702 matches
Level after 15 minutes	37 won, 14 drawn, 12 lost in 63 matches	606 won, 530 drawn, 606 lost in 1742 matches
Level after 30 minutes	34 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 55 matches	442 won, 422 drawn, 442 lost in 1306 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
Score	AC Milan	League sides
All matches	30 scored, 18 conceded (88)	694 scored, 694 conceded (2392)
When leading after 75 minutes	8 scored, 8 conceded (39)	243 scored, 222 conceded (808)
When level after 75 minutes	14 scored, 8 conceded (31)	229 scored, 229 conceded (776)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 36 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 22(league sides: 1,225 times, within 15 minutes 179, by full time 545)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Sassuolo		AC Milan
43Since 23 Aug 2025	Matches with xG	74Since 19 Oct 2024
51.12	xG for	118.36
55	Goals scored	109
62.35	xG against	83.37
59	Goals conceded	73

Sassuolo

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left

Show the numbers

Sassuolo: Last matches with xG, newest first
Date	Opponent	xG for	xG against	Goals (tick; no tick = 0)
18 Sep 2026	at Monza	1.47	1.51	1–2
13 Sep 2026	v Juventus	1.02	1.10	3–2
6 Sep 2026	at Bologna	1.62	1.88	2–2
29 Aug 2026	v Torino	1.85	1.26	2–1
23 Aug 2026	at Atalanta	2.70	0.88	1–2
24 May 2026	at Parma	0.91	1.12	0–1
17 May 2026	v Lecce	2.02	0.86	2–3
8 May 2026	at Torino	2.24	3.26	1–2
3 May 2026	v AC Milan	1.58	0.24	2–0
26 Apr 2026	at Fiorentina	0.88	1.94	0–0

AC Milan

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left

Show the numbers

AC Milan: Last matches with xG, newest first
Date	Opponent	xG for	xG against	Goals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026	v Lecce	2.19	0.21	3–0
12 Sep 2026	at Lazio	1.25	2.01	2–2
6 Sep 2026	at Juventus	0.11	1.59	1–1
28 Aug 2026	v Venezia	2.21	0.80	2–0
23 Aug 2026	at Torino	2.15	1.29	2–1
24 May 2026	v Cagliari	1.74	2.78	1–2
17 May 2026	at Genoa	1.75	1.32	2–1
10 May 2026	v Atalanta	2.21	1.38	2–3
3 May 2026	at Sassuolo	0.24	1.58	0–2
26 Apr 2026	v Juventus	0.65	0.52	0–0

This league season

Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.

Sassuolo		AC Milan
5 of 5	Matches with xG	5 of 5
7	Points in those matches	11
8.05	xPts	8.04
8.66	xG for	7.91
6.63	xG against	5.90

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Sassuolo and AC Milan

Corners won and concededPRO
Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
First-half goals, scored and concededPRO

PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

SassuoloJ. Idzes (Muscle Injury) · I. Kone (Broken Leg) · Y. Paz (Knee Injury) · E. Pieragnolo (Knee Injury) · C. Volpato (Thigh Injury) · D. Boloca (Muscle Injury) · F. Cande (Knee Injury) · S. Walukiewicz (Muscle Injury)
AC MilanNo injuries or suspensions reported.

Published 11 Oct 2026, 16:13 BST · not changed since

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