SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 04 match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 11 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Freiburg are clear favourites against Schalke 04, with the model giving them a 54% chance to win. The hosts expect to create more chances, with 1.94 expected goals to Schalke's 1.16. However, limited data quality means uncertainty remains.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 54%SC Freiburg win
- 24%Draw
- 22%FC Schalke 04 win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
SC FreiburgLast 5: 4 wins, 1 draw, no defeats
FC Schalke 04Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- SC Freiburg won 30 of 42 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Bundesliga, since 18 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 147 of 196.
- Over 2.5 goals in 7 of SC Freiburg's last 10 home league games.
- Both teams scored in 7 of SC Freiburg's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
2 meetings: SC Freiburg 2, draws 0, FC Schalke 04 0
Goals: SC Freiburg 6, FC Schalke 04 0
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr 2023 | SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 04 | 4–0 |
| 30 Oct 2022 | FC Schalke 04 v SC Freiburg | 0–2 |
Home and away
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg at home
Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
- WonBorussia Mönchengladbach12 Sep 20265–0
- WonWerder Bremen30 Aug 20264–1
- WonMotherwellUEFA Europa Conference League27 Aug 20264–1
- LostAston VillaUEFA Europa League20 May 20260–3
- WonRB Leipzig16 May 20264–1
SC Freiburg: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 24 scored, 12 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 04 away
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- WonUnion Berlin11 Sep 20263–1
- LostFC Augsburg30 Aug 20260–3
- DrawnHallescher FCDFB Pokal24 Aug 20262–2 AET 5–2
- Lost1. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga9 May 20260–3
- WonSC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga26 Apr 20263–2
FC Schalke 04: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
SC Freiburg- Last match
- 22 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga
- Next match
- 4 days after15 Oct 2026 · v FK Jablonec · UEFA Europa Conference League
FC Schalke 04- Last match
- 21 days before20 Sep 2026 · v SV Elversberg · Bundesliga
- Next match
- 6 days after17 Oct 2026 · v FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
SC Freiburg
| Score | SC Freiburg | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 30 won, 5 drawn, 7 lost in 42 matches | 596 won, 195 drawn, 125 lost in 916 matches |
| Conceded first | 7 won, 6 drawn, 19 lost in 32 matches | 125 won, 195 drawn, 596 lost in 916 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 12 drawn, 13 lost in 35 matches | 197 won, 286 drawn, 197 lost in 680 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 12 drawn, 9 lost in 27 matches | 148 won, 284 drawn, 148 lost in 580 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 6 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 23 matches | 100 won, 290 drawn, 100 lost in 490 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 80 minutes | 18 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches | 355 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 358 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 5 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 25 matches | 71 won, 334 drawn, 71 lost in 476 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 32 won, 16 drawn, 18 lost in 66 matches | 481 won, 354 drawn, 481 lost in 1316 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 19 won, 16 drawn, 17 lost in 52 matches | 315 won, 308 drawn, 315 lost in 938 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | SC Freiburg | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 24 scored, 30 conceded (81) | 698 scored, 698 conceded (1934) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 13 conceded (31) | 295 scored, 262 conceded (727) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 5 conceded (26) | 141 scored, 141 conceded (480) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 12 conceded (24) | 262 scored, 295 conceded (727) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 41 times, equalised within 15 minutes 11, by full time 21(league sides: 1,111 times, within 15 minutes 191, by full time 506)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 19 Oct 2024
| SC Freiburg | FC Schalke 04 | |
|---|---|---|
| 66 | Matches with xG | — |
| 92.28 | xG for | — |
| 103 | Goals scored | — |
| 89.80 | xG against | — |
| 106 | Goals conceded | — |
SC Freiburg
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Eintracht Frankfurt | 3.09 | 2.18 | 2–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2.60 | 0.19 | 5–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at SC Paderborn 07 | 1.24 | 0.77 | 1–0 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Werder Bremen | 2.37 | 0.54 | 4–1 |
| 16 May 2026 | v RB Leipzig | 1.41 | 1.24 | 4–1 |
| 10 May 2026 | at Hamburger SV | 0.41 | 1.98 | 2–3 |
| 3 May 2026 | v VfL Wolfsburg | 0.94 | 0.82 | 1–1 |
| 26 Apr 2026 | at Borussia Dortmund | 0.76 | 3.37 | 0–4 |
| 19 Apr 2026 | v 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.62 | 1.58 | 2–1 |
| 12 Apr 2026 | at FSV Mainz 05 | 0.56 | 0.55 | 1–0 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: SC Freiburg and FC Schalke 04
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- B. Ogbus (Injury) · B. Yilmaz (Knock)
- Ruled out
- D. Ljubicic (Knee Injury)
Published 11 Oct 2026, 16:13 BST · not changed since
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