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Bundesliga
SC Paderborn 07
1–0Finished
Hamburger SV
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:30 BSTMatchday 7 · Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn

SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Paderborn are favoured at home with a 43% chance of winning, while Hamburg have a 31% chance. The model expects 2.94 goals total, and Paderborn won 2-0 when these sides met earlier this year.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 43%SC Paderborn 07 win
  • 26%Draw
  • 31%Hamburger SV win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

Hamburger SVHamburger SV

Last 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Bundesliga, since 18 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 148 of 197.
  • Hamburger SV avoided defeat in 7 of 21 matches in which their opponent scored first, since 24 Aug 2025.
  • SC Paderborn 07 won 4 of the last 8 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Hamburger SV's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: SC Paderborn 07 4, draws 2, Hamburger SV 2

Goals: SC Paderborn 07 14, Hamburger SV 11

DateMatchScore
2 Mar 2025SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV2. Bundesliga2–0
28 Sep 2024Hamburger SV v SC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga2–2
10 May 2024SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV2. Bundesliga1–0
9 Dec 2023Hamburger SV v SC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga1–2
5 May 2023Hamburger SV v SC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga2–2
30 Oct 2022SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV2. Bundesliga2–3
2 Apr 2022Hamburger SV v SC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga1–2
22 Oct 2021SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV2. Bundesliga1–2

Home and away

SC Paderborn 07

SC Paderborn 07 at home

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostVfB Stuttgart10 Oct 20260–2
  • Won1899 Hoffenheim20 Sep 20263–1
  • LostSC Freiburg5 Sep 20260–1
  • DrawnVfL Wolfsburg25 May 20261–1 AET 2–1
  • DrawnKarlsruher SC2. Bundesliga8 May 20262–2

SC Paderborn 07: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
20 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10
Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • Won1899 Hoffenheim10 Oct 20263–2
  • LostRB Leipzig13 Sep 20260–5
  • LostBorussia Dortmund29 Aug 20260–2
  • WonVerlDFB Pokal24 Aug 20263–0
  • DrawnBayer Leverkusen16 May 20261–1

Hamburger SV: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
12 scored, 23 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

SC Paderborn 07
Last match
7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Werder Bremen · Bundesliga
Next match
4 days after28 Oct 2026 · v VfB Stuttgart · DFB Pokal
Hamburger SV
Last match
7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
Next match
3 days after27 Oct 2026 · v Eintracht Frankfurt · DFB Pokal

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 24 Aug 2025. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Hamburger SV

ScoreHamburger SVLeague sides
Conceded first4 won, 3 drawn, 14 lost in 21 matches127 won, 196 drawn, 604 lost in 927 matches
Level after 15 minutes9 won, 11 drawn, 13 lost in 33 matches485 won, 358 drawn, 485 lost in 1328 matches
Level after 30 minutes7 won, 10 drawn, 5 lost in 22 matches319 won, 310 drawn, 319 lost in 948 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreHamburger SVLeague sides
All matches9 scored, 17 conceded (40)707 scored, 707 conceded (1958)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 26 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 12(league sides: 1,123 times, within 15 minutes 193, by full time 512)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 24 Aug 2025

SC Paderborn 07Hamburger SV
—Matches with xG40
—xG for48.01
—Goals scored46
—xG against72.18
—Goals conceded69

Hamburger SV

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Hamburger SV: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026v VfB Stuttgart1.461.711–0
10 Oct 2026at 1899 Hoffenheim1.280.933–2
19 Sep 2026v 1. FC Köln1.451.412–1
13 Sep 2026at RB Leipzig1.102.430–5
6 Sep 2026v FSV Mainz 050.192.770–5
29 Aug 2026at Borussia Dortmund0.911.530–2
16 May 2026at Bayer Leverkusen1.793.271–1
10 May 2026v SC Freiburg1.980.413–2
2 May 2026at Eintracht Frankfurt0.620.652–1
25 Apr 2026v 1899 Hoffenheim1.371.451–2

This league season

Bundesliga matches since 28 Aug 2026.

SC Paderborn 07Hamburger SV
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
5Points in those matches9
4.80xPts5.94
5.64xG for6.39
11.07xG against10.78

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07
    Ruled out
    N. Awortwie-Grant (Knee Injury) · O. Batista Meier (Ankle Injury) · T. Gayret (Knee Injury) · M. Hoffmeier (Muscle Injury) · S. Klaas (Muscle Injury)
  • Hamburger SVHamburger SV
    Ruled out
    N. Remberg (Knee Injury) · M. Vuskovic (Doping)

Published 24 Oct 2026, 13:28 BST · not changed since

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