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Bundesliga
SC Paderborn 07
0–2Finished
VfB Stuttgart
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:30 BST

SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 48%SC Paderborn 07 win
  • 24%Draw
  • 28%VfB Stuttgart win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart

Last 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Bundesliga, since 18 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 147 of 194.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home league games.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 10 of VfB Stuttgart's last 10 away league games.
  • Both teams scored in 9 of SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

1 meeting: SC Paderborn 07 0, draws 0, VfB Stuttgart 1

Goals: SC Paderborn 07 1, VfB Stuttgart 2

DateMatchScore
31 Jan 2023SC Paderborn 07 v VfB StuttgartDFB Pokal1–2

Home and away

SC Paderborn 07

SC Paderborn 07 at home

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • Won1899 Hoffenheim20 Sep 20263–1
  • LostSC Freiburg5 Sep 20260–1
  • DrawnVfL Wolfsburg25 May 20261–1 AET 2–1
  • DrawnKarlsruher SC2. Bundesliga8 May 20262–2
  • LostFC Schalke 042. Bundesliga26 Apr 20262–3

SC Paderborn 07: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
22 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
9 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10
VfB Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart away

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • Lost1899 Hoffenheim12 Sep 20261–2
  • LostBayern München28 Aug 20261–5
  • WonHansa RostockDFB Pokal21 Aug 20264–0
  • LostBayern MünchenDFB Pokal23 May 20260–3
  • DrawnEintracht Frankfurt16 May 20262–2

VfB Stuttgart: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
23 scored, 25 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
9 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
10 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

SC Paderborn 07
Last match
20 days before20 Sep 2026 · v 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga
Next match
7 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Werder Bremen · Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart
Last match
21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga
Next match
4 days after14 Oct 2026 · v Slovan Bratislava · UEFA Champions League

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

SC Paderborn 07VfB Stuttgart
—Matches with xG66
—xG for117.58
—Goals scored126
—xG against100.64
—Goals conceded100

VfB Stuttgart

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
VfB Stuttgart: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026v Borussia Dortmund0.871.340–1
12 Sep 2026at 1899 Hoffenheim2.162.761–2
4 Sep 2026v 1. FC Köln3.472.864–1
28 Aug 2026at Bayern München0.794.061–5
16 May 2026at Eintracht Frankfurt1.322.562–2
9 May 2026v Bayer Leverkusen3.040.543–1
2 May 2026at 1899 Hoffenheim1.572.473–3
26 Apr 2026v Werder Bremen1.820.931–1
19 Apr 2026at Bayern München1.354.612–4
12 Apr 2026v Hamburger SV3.480.714–0

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07N. Awortwie-Grant (Knee Injury) · L. Eickel (Back Injury) · T. Gayret (Knee Injury) · M. Hoffmeier (Muscle Injury) · S. Klaas (Muscle Injury)
  • VfB StuttgartVfB StuttgartA. Al Dakhil (Knee Injury) · J. Diehl (Muscle Injury) · N. Nartey (Muscle Injury)

Published 10 Oct 2026, 13:27 BST · not changed since

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