Sevilla v Osasuna match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Mon 26 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
The model gives Sevilla a 47% chance of winning, with an expected goals total of 2.77 and a gap of 0.41 in Sevilla's favour. Sevilla's last two results are wins; Osasuna have won one of their last five. Both teams face significant injury absences heading into this fixture.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 47%Sevilla win
- 26%Draw
- 27%Osasuna win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
SevillaLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
OsasunaLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Sevilla won 17 of 30 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
- Osasuna won 18 of 31 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
- Osasuna won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
- Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Osasuna's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Sevilla 1, draws 5, Osasuna 4
Goals: Sevilla 8, Osasuna 11
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | Osasuna v Sevilla | 2–1 |
| 8 Nov 2025 | Sevilla v Osasuna | 1–0 |
| 24 Apr 2025 | Osasuna v Sevilla | 1–0 |
| 2 Dec 2024 | Sevilla v Osasuna | 1–1 |
| 28 Jan 2024 | Sevilla v Osasuna | 1–1 |
| 23 Sep 2023 | Osasuna v Sevilla | 0–0 |
| 26 Feb 2023 | Sevilla v Osasuna | 2–3 |
| 25 Jan 2023 | Osasuna v SevillaCopa del Rey | 1–1 AET 2–1 |
| 12 Aug 2022 | Osasuna v Sevilla | 2–1 |
| 5 Feb 2022 | Osasuna v Sevilla | 0–0 |
Home and away
SevillaSevilla at home
Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost
- LostBarcelona19 Sep 20261–3
- WonValencia11 Sep 20261–0
- LostAtletico Madrid29 Aug 20261–3
- WonRayo Vallecano15 Aug 20262–1
- LostReal Madrid17 May 20260–1
Sevilla: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 13 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
OsasunaOsasuna away
Last 5: 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost
- LostReal Betis11 Oct 20262–5
- LostAtletico Madrid16 Sep 20260–4
- LostAlaves6 Sep 20262–5
- WonCelta Vigo27 Aug 20262–1
- LostGetafe23 May 20260–1
Osasuna: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 26 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Sevilla- Last match
- 8 days before18 Oct 2026 · v Real Madrid · La Liga
- Next match
- 3 days after29 Oct 2026 · v Hortaleza · Copa del Rey
Osasuna- Last match
- 8 days before18 Oct 2026 · v Racing Santander · La Liga
- Next match
- 3 days after29 Oct 2026 · v Atletico Calatayud · Copa del Rey
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Sevilla
Since 3 Nov 2024
| Score | Sevilla | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 17 won, 8 drawn, 5 lost in 30 matches | 769 won, 248 drawn, 145 lost in 1162 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 8 drawn, 30 lost in 43 matches | 145 won, 248 drawn, 769 lost in 1162 matches |
| Level at half-time | 13 won, 8 drawn, 15 lost in 36 matches | 346 won, 378 drawn, 346 lost in 1070 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 8 won, 9 drawn, 9 lost in 26 matches | 265 won, 386 drawn, 265 lost in 916 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 1 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches | 39 won, 121 drawn, 369 lost in 529 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 6 drawn, 16 lost in 23 matches | 26 won, 105 drawn, 399 lost in 530 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 8 drawn, 8 lost in 20 matches | 155 won, 456 drawn, 155 lost in 766 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches | 12 won, 90 drawn, 413 lost in 515 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 14 won, 10 drawn, 28 lost in 52 matches | 649 won, 492 drawn, 649 lost in 1790 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 13 won, 9 drawn, 23 lost in 45 matches | 478 won, 428 drawn, 478 lost in 1384 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Sevilla | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 24 scored, 28 conceded (74) | 800 scored, 800 conceded (2476) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 8 conceded (22) | 285 scored, 278 conceded (838) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 13 conceded (34) | 278 scored, 285 conceded (838) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 49 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 22(league sides: 1,304 times, within 15 minutes 213, by full time 609)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Osasuna
Since 27 Oct 2024
| Score | Osasuna | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 18 won, 8 drawn, 5 lost in 31 matches | 769 won, 248 drawn, 145 lost in 1162 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 11 drawn, 24 lost in 39 matches | 145 won, 248 drawn, 769 lost in 1162 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 13 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches | 330 won, 127 drawn, 61 lost in 518 matches |
| Level at half-time | 5 won, 14 drawn, 12 lost in 31 matches | 346 won, 378 drawn, 346 lost in 1070 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 8 won, 15 drawn, 8 lost in 31 matches | 265 won, 386 drawn, 265 lost in 916 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 13 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches | 399 won, 105 drawn, 26 lost in 530 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 5 won, 13 drawn, 6 lost in 24 matches | 209 won, 424 drawn, 209 lost in 842 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 5 won, 15 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches | 155 won, 456 drawn, 155 lost in 766 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 16 won, 17 drawn, 23 lost in 56 matches | 649 won, 492 drawn, 649 lost in 1790 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 9 won, 16 drawn, 15 lost in 40 matches | 478 won, 428 drawn, 478 lost in 1384 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Osasuna | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 27 scored, 20 conceded (75) | 800 scored, 800 conceded (2476) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 7 conceded (20) | 285 scored, 278 conceded (838) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 7 conceded (26) | 237 scored, 237 conceded (800) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 6 conceded (29) | 278 scored, 285 conceded (838) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 43 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 18(league sides: 1,304 times, within 15 minutes 213, by full time 609)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Sevilla | Osasuna | |
|---|---|---|
| 74Since 3 Nov 2024 | Matches with xG | 75Since 27 Oct 2024 |
| 77.38 | xG for | 94.65 |
| 90 | Goals scored | 88 |
| 102.55 | xG against | 102.64 |
| 116 | Goals conceded | 104 |
Sevilla
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | at Real Madrid | 0.75 | 2.28 | 1–4 |
| 12 Oct 2026 | at Levante | 2.20 | 1.82 | 3–3 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Barcelona | 0.40 | 3.47 | 1–3 |
| 16 Sep 2026 | at Deportivo La Coruna | 0.73 | 0.14 | 1–0 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | v Valencia | 0.93 | 0.10 | 1–0 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at Espanyol | 0.53 | 1.23 | 1–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Atletico Madrid | 0.90 | 0.93 | 1–3 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Athletic Club | 0.41 | 1.25 | 3–1 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v Rayo Vallecano | 2.19 | 1.89 | 2–1 |
| 23 May 2026 | at Celta Vigo | 0.80 | 1.59 | 0–1 |
Osasuna
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | v Racing Santander | 3.65 | 0.28 | 2–0 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Real Betis | 1.94 | 2.89 | 2–5 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Rayo Vallecano | 0.53 | 1.01 | 1–1 |
| 16 Sep 2026 | at Atletico Madrid | 0.48 | 3.99 | 0–4 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Espanyol | 1.05 | 1.43 | 0–2 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at Alaves | 1.64 | 1.20 | 2–5 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | v Getafe | 1.68 | 0.68 | 1–0 |
| 27 Aug 2026 | at Celta Vigo | 2.60 | 0.14 | 2–1 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | v Levante | 0.70 | 1.28 | 0–0 |
| 23 May 2026 | at Getafe | 0.51 | 0.21 | 0–1 |
This league season
La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.
| Sevilla | Osasuna | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 14 | Points in those matches | 11 |
| 10.54 | xPts | 13.35 |
| 9.04 | xG for | 14.27 |
| 13.11 | xG against | 12.90 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Sevilla and Osasuna
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- Marcao (Muscle Injury) · M. Sierra (Shoulder Injury)
- Ruled out
- A. Bonel (Groin Injury) · R. Del Castillo (Muscle Injury) · J. Herrando (Muscle Injury) · A. Oroz (Hamstring Injury)
Published 26 Oct 2026, 12:13 GMT · not changed since
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