Sheffield Utd v Lincoln match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 43%Sheffield Utd win
- 30%Draw
- 27%Lincoln win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
Sheffield UtdLast 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats
LincolnLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Sheffield Utd won 36 of 54 matches in which they scored first, since 18 Oct 2024.
- Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 317 of 404.
- Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Sheffield Utd's last 10 home league games.
- Both teams scored in 8 of Sheffield Utd's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
1 meeting: Sheffield Utd 0, draws 1, Lincoln 0
Goals: Sheffield Utd 0, Lincoln 0
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2023 | Sheffield Utd v LincolnLeague Cup | 0–0 PEN |
Home and away
Sheffield UtdSheffield Utd at home
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- LostWolves13 Sep 20260–1
- LostNorwich5 Sep 20261–3
- WonBolton1 Sep 20263–2
- DrawnBirmingham15 Aug 20260–0
- LostPreston25 Apr 20262–3
Sheffield Utd: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 14 scored, 19 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
LincolnLincoln away
Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
- WonBristol City15 Sep 20261–0
- WonPreston12 Sep 20261–0
- LostBournemouthLeague Cup8 Sep 20260–4
- WonBolton29 Aug 20261–0
- WonBlackpoolLeague Cup25 Aug 20264–1
Lincoln: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 15 scored, 7 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Sheffield Utd- Last match
- 21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Stoke City · Championship
- Next match
- 4 days after14 Oct 2026 · v Portsmouth · Championship
Lincoln- Last match
- 21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Swansea · Championship
- Next match
- 4 days after14 Oct 2026 · v West Ham · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 18 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Sheffield Utd
| Score | Sheffield Utd | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 36 won, 7 drawn, 11 lost in 54 matches | 1090 won, 342 drawn, 211 lost in 1643 matches |
| Conceded first | 8 won, 4 drawn, 25 lost in 37 matches | 211 won, 342 drawn, 1090 lost in 1643 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 14 won, 2 drawn, 8 lost in 24 matches | 496 won, 162 drawn, 93 lost in 751 matches |
| Level at half-time | 18 won, 12 drawn, 11 lost in 41 matches | 450 won, 572 drawn, 450 lost in 1472 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 14 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost in 24 matches | 525 won, 167 drawn, 64 lost in 756 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 13 won, 9 drawn, 8 lost in 30 matches | 336 won, 576 drawn, 336 lost in 1248 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 20 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost in 27 matches | 553 won, 147 drawn, 43 lost in 743 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 10 drawn, 6 lost in 23 matches | 271 won, 624 drawn, 271 lost in 1166 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 22 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 26 matches | 629 won, 115 drawn, 17 lost in 761 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 3 won, 11 drawn, 6 lost in 20 matches | 170 won, 696 drawn, 170 lost in 1036 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 2 won, 0 drawn, 20 lost in 22 matches | 17 won, 115 drawn, 629 lost in 761 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 30 won, 12 drawn, 28 lost in 70 matches | 898 won, 730 drawn, 898 lost in 2526 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 26 won, 10 drawn, 16 lost in 52 matches | 638 won, 622 drawn, 638 lost in 1898 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Sheffield Utd | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 20 scored, 27 conceded (94) | 1017 scored, 1017 conceded (3534) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 13 conceded (45) | 336 scored, 365 conceded (1227) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 4 scored, 9 conceded (21) | 316 scored, 316 conceded (1080) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 5 conceded (28) | 365 scored, 336 conceded (1227) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 43 times, equalised within 15 minutes 12, by full time 17(league sides: 1,851 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 822)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 18 Oct 2024
| Sheffield Utd | Lincoln | |
|---|---|---|
| 94 | Matches with xG | — |
| 135.81 | xG for | — |
| 133 | Goals scored | — |
| 111.80 | xG against | — |
| 112 | Goals conceded | — |
Sheffield Utd
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Stoke City | 0.36 | 0.65 | 1–2 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v Wolves | 0.63 | 1.57 | 0–1 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | at Blackburn | 0.47 | 1.60 | 2–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Norwich | 0.79 | 3.04 | 1–3 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | v Bolton | 2.21 | 1.91 | 3–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Cardiff | 1.28 | 2.24 | 2–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Swansea | 1.46 | 0.57 | 0–0 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v Birmingham | 0.29 | 0.77 | 0–0 |
| 2 May 2026 | at Derby | 1.85 | 2.11 | 2–1 |
| 25 Apr 2026 | v Preston | 3.05 | 2.98 | 2–3 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Sheffield Utd | Lincoln | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 9 | Points in those matches | 11 |
| 7.80 | xPts | 12.27 |
| 7.49 | xG for | 11.24 |
| 12.35 | xG against | 9.37 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Sheffield Utd and Lincoln
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Published 10 Oct 2026, 14:03 BST · not changed since
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