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Championship
Sheffield Utd
1–0Finished
Wrexham
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 20:00 GMTMatchday 13 · Bramall Lane, Sheffield

Sheffield Utd v Wrexham match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 30 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model gives Sheffield Utd a 47% chance of winning, with Wrexham at 27% and draws at 27%. Expected goals are 1.58 for Sheffield Utd and 1.17 for Wrexham, a gap of 0.41 in Sheffield Utd's favour. Sheffield Utd are missing Doherty and Shackleton; Wrexham are without five players and Thomason is doubtful. Wrexham have won both recent meetings.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 47%Sheffield Utd win
  • 26%Draw
  • 27%Wrexham win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Sheffield UtdSheffield Utd

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. drew1–1v Derby
  2. won1–0at Bristol City
  3. lost2–3at Portsmouth
  4. won3–0v Lincoln
  5. lost1–2at Stoke City
WrexhamWrexham

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. lost0–2at Blackburn
  2. won4–1v Preston
  3. lost1–2v West Brom
  4. drew1–1at Derby
  5. won2–1v Southampton

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Sheffield Utd won 37 of 55 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Wrexham won 17 of 29 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Aug 2025.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Sheffield Utd's last 10 home league games.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of Sheffield Utd's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

5 meetings: Sheffield Utd 2, draws 1, Wrexham 2

Goals: Sheffield Utd 14, Wrexham 13

DateMatchScore
21 Mar 2026Sheffield Utd v Wrexham1–2
26 Dec 2025Wrexham v Sheffield Utd5–3
13 Aug 2024Sheffield Utd v WrexhamLeague Cup4–2
7 Feb 2023Sheffield Utd v WrexhamFA Cup3–1
29 Jan 2023Wrexham v Sheffield UtdFA Cup3–3

Home and away

Sheffield Utd

Sheffield Utd at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnDerby24 Oct 20261–1
  • WonLincoln10 Oct 20263–0
  • LostWolves13 Sep 20260–1
  • LostNorwich5 Sep 20261–3
  • WonBolton1 Sep 20263–2

Sheffield Utd: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Wrexham

Wrexham away

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostBlackburn24 Oct 20260–2
  • DrawnDerby10 Oct 20261–1
  • LostWest Ham11 Sep 20260–6
  • DrawnSwansea5 Sep 20260–0
  • WonMillwall2 Sep 20263–0

Wrexham: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
9 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Sheffield Utd
Last match
6 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Derby · Championship
Next match
4 days after3 Nov 2026 · v Preston · Championship
Wrexham
Last match
6 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Blackburn · Championship
Next match
5 days after4 Nov 2026 · v Middlesbrough · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Sheffield Utd

Since 2 Nov 2024

ScoreSheffield UtdLeague sides
Scored first37 won, 7 drawn, 11 lost in 55 matches1121 won, 350 drawn, 218 lost in 1689 matches
Conceded first8 won, 5 drawn, 24 lost in 37 matches218 won, 350 drawn, 1121 lost in 1689 matches
1 goal up at half-time15 won, 2 drawn, 8 lost in 25 matches511 won, 165 drawn, 95 lost in 771 matches
Level at half-time18 won, 12 drawn, 9 lost in 39 matches463 won, 582 drawn, 463 lost in 1508 matches
1 goal down at half-time4 won, 1 drawn, 15 lost in 20 matches95 won, 165 drawn, 511 lost in 771 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes15 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost in 25 matches543 won, 171 drawn, 65 lost in 779 matches
Level after 60 minutes13 won, 9 drawn, 6 lost in 28 matches343 won, 586 drawn, 343 lost in 1272 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes2 won, 1 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches65 won, 171 drawn, 543 lost in 779 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes21 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches569 won, 152 drawn, 45 lost in 766 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 10 drawn, 6 lost in 23 matches278 won, 634 drawn, 278 lost in 1190 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes23 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 27 matches647 won, 120 drawn, 17 lost in 784 matches
Level after 80 minutes3 won, 12 drawn, 7 lost in 22 matches175 won, 706 drawn, 175 lost in 1056 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes2 won, 0 drawn, 18 lost in 20 matches17 won, 120 drawn, 647 lost in 784 matches
Level after 15 minutes31 won, 13 drawn, 27 lost in 71 matches927 won, 744 drawn, 927 lost in 2598 matches
Level after 30 minutes27 won, 11 drawn, 15 lost in 53 matches661 won, 636 drawn, 661 lost in 1958 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreSheffield UtdLeague sides
All matches22 scored, 26 conceded (95)1050 scored, 1050 conceded (3630)
When leading after 75 minutes12 scored, 13 conceded (46)350 scored, 377 conceded (1265)
When level after 75 minutes4 scored, 9 conceded (21)323 scored, 323 conceded (1100)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 4 conceded (28)377 scored, 350 conceded (1265)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 12, by full time 19(league sides: 1,902 times, within 15 minutes 325, by full time 842)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Wrexham

Since 9 Aug 2025

ScoreWrexhamLeague sides
Scored first17 won, 9 drawn, 3 lost in 29 matches1121 won, 350 drawn, 218 lost in 1689 matches
Conceded first5 won, 7 drawn, 14 lost in 26 matches218 won, 350 drawn, 1121 lost in 1689 matches
Level after 15 minutes17 won, 10 drawn, 12 lost in 39 matches927 won, 744 drawn, 927 lost in 2598 matches
Level after 30 minutes11 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 30 matches661 won, 636 drawn, 661 lost in 1958 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreWrexhamLeague sides
All matches19 scored, 25 conceded (58)1050 scored, 1050 conceded (3630)
When leading after 75 minutes5 scored, 12 conceded (24)350 scored, 377 conceded (1265)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 32 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 19(league sides: 1,902 times, within 15 minutes 325, by full time 842)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Sheffield UtdWrexham
95Since 2 Nov 2024Matches with xG58Since 9 Aug 2025
140.10xG for69.20
138Goals scored84
113.70xG against76.21
113Goals conceded83

Sheffield Utd

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Sheffield Utd: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026v Derby2.551.151–1
17 Oct 2026at Bristol City1.230.581–0
14 Oct 2026at Portsmouth1.802.012–3
10 Oct 2026v Lincoln0.681.393–0
19 Sep 2026at Stoke City0.360.651–2
13 Sep 2026v Wolves0.631.570–1
8 Sep 2026at Blackburn0.471.602–1
5 Sep 2026v Norwich0.793.041–3
1 Sep 2026v Bolton2.211.913–2
29 Aug 2026at Cardiff1.282.242–2

Wrexham

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Wrexham: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026at Blackburn1.741.610–2
17 Oct 2026v Preston1.970.794–1
13 Oct 2026v West Brom0.380.941–2
10 Oct 2026at Derby1.460.601–1
19 Sep 2026v Southampton0.542.082–1
11 Sep 2026at West Ham0.442.960–6
8 Sep 2026v Burnley1.281.501–1
5 Sep 2026at Swansea0.670.740–0
2 Sep 2026at Millwall0.880.233–0
28 Aug 2026v Birmingham1.421.621–2

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

Sheffield UtdWrexham
12 of 12Matches with xG12 of 12
16Points in those matches14
13.96xPts16.69
13.75xG for14.13
17.48xG against14.62

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Sheffield Utd and Wrexham

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Sheffield UtdSheffield Utd
    Ruled out
    M. Doherty (Injury) · R. One (Inactive) · J. Shackleton (Health problems)
    Doubtful
    P. Bamford (Inactive)
  • WrexhamWrexham
    Ruled out
    N. Broadhead (Thigh Injury) · L. Cacace (Calf Injury) · M. Cleworth (Muscle Injury) · J. Windass (Ankle Injury)
    Doubtful
    S. Revan (Hamstring Injury) · G. Thomason (Thigh Injury)

Published 30 Oct 2026, 18:58 GMT · not changed since

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