Southampton v Bolton match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Southampton are clear favourites to beat Bolton with a 64% win probability. The model expects Southampton to dominate chances, projecting 2.1 expected goals to Bolton's 0.94. Southampton's form reads WWLWW while Bolton's reads WLWWL over their last five matches.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 64%Southampton win
- 21%Draw
- 15%Bolton win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
SouthamptonLast 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat
BoltonLast 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats
Head-to-head
Head-to-head data was not available for this match.
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 321 of 411.
- Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Southampton's last 10 home league games.
- Both teams scored in 8 of Southampton's last 10 home league games.
Home and away
SouthamptonSouthampton at home
Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
- WonPortsmouth11 Oct 20261–0
- WonBristol City12 Sep 20264–1
- WonSwansea8 Sep 20263–1
- WonMillwall29 Aug 20265–1
- LostWest HamLeague Cup25 Aug 20261–4
Southampton: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 26 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
BoltonBolton away
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- WonWolves13 Oct 20263–1
- WonNorwich20 Sep 20264–3
- LostMillwall5 Sep 20260–4
- LostSheffield Utd1 Sep 20262–3
- DrawnQPR22 Aug 20260–0
Bolton: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 13 scored, 16 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Southampton- Last match
- 3 days before14 Oct 2026 · v Norwich · Championship
- Next match
- 7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v West Ham · Championship
Bolton- Last match
- 4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Wolves · Championship
- Next match
- 6 days after23 Oct 2026 · v Middlesbrough · Championship
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Southampton | Bolton | |
|---|---|---|
| 88 | Matches with xG | — |
| 120.93 | xG for | — |
| 125 | Goals scored | — |
| 145.53 | xG against | — |
| 137 | Goals conceded | — |
Southampton
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | at Norwich | 2.16 | 1.26 | 1–0 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Portsmouth | 1.28 | 1.18 | 1–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Wrexham | 2.08 | 0.54 | 1–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Bristol City | 1.71 | 2.24 | 4–1 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | v Swansea | 1.44 | 1.22 | 3–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Lincoln | 0.77 | 2.27 | 1–1 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | at Birmingham | 1.02 | 1.55 | 1–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Millwall | 3.62 | 1.35 | 5–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Stoke City | 2.32 | 0.93 | 3–1 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | at Watford | 1.71 | 0.81 | 1–2 |
Southampton: 1 without xG left out
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Southampton | Bolton | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 of 10 | Matches with xG | 10 of 10 |
| 20 | Points in those matches | 13 |
| 16.61 | xPts | 11.93 |
| 18.11 | xG for | 13.93 |
| 13.35 | xG against | 16.79 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Southampton and Bolton
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- F. Downes (Ankle Injury)
- Ruled out
- C. Forino-Joseph (Groin Injury)
Published 17 Oct 2026, 13:57 BST · not changed since
All fixtures