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Championship
Southampton
1–0Finished
Portsmouth
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 12:00 BSTMatchday 9

Southampton v Portsmouth match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 11 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 49%Southampton win
  • 25%Draw
  • 26%Portsmouth win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

SouthamptonSouthampton

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

PortsmouthPortsmouth

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 320 of 408.
  • Portsmouth won 26 of 39 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Southampton's last 10 home league games.
  • Both teams scored in 8 of Southampton's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

2 meetings: Southampton 0, draws 2, Portsmouth 0

Goals: Southampton 1, Portsmouth 1

DateMatchScore
25 Jan 2026Portsmouth v Southampton1–1
14 Sep 2025Southampton v Portsmouth0–0

Home and away

Southampton

Southampton at home

Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonBristol City12 Sep 20264–1
  • WonSwansea8 Sep 20263–1
  • WonMillwall29 Aug 20265–1
  • LostWest HamLeague Cup25 Aug 20261–4
  • WonStoke City22 Aug 20263–1

Southampton: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
27 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
8 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Portsmouth

Portsmouth away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnCharlton12 Sep 20260–0
  • LostBristol City29 Aug 20261–2
  • WonLincoln22 Aug 20263–1
  • LostWest HamLeague Cup8 Aug 20261–3
  • WonStoke City25 Apr 20263–1

Portsmouth: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Southampton
Last match
22 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Wrexham · Championship
Next match
3 days after14 Oct 2026 · v Norwich · Championship
Portsmouth
Last match
22 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Blackburn · Championship
Next match
3 days after14 Oct 2026 · v Sheffield Utd · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Portsmouth

ScorePortsmouthLeague sides
Scored first26 won, 9 drawn, 4 lost in 39 matches1097 won, 344 drawn, 212 lost in 1653 matches
Conceded first4 won, 8 drawn, 34 lost in 46 matches212 won, 344 drawn, 1097 lost in 1653 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 13 drawn, 11 lost in 33 matches452 won, 574 drawn, 452 lost in 1478 matches
1 goal down at half-time2 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 21 matches94 won, 163 drawn, 499 lost in 756 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 17 drawn, 12 lost in 36 matches337 won, 578 drawn, 337 lost in 1252 matches
Level after 70 minutes3 won, 17 drawn, 9 lost in 29 matches272 won, 626 drawn, 272 lost in 1170 matches
Level after 80 minutes2 won, 20 drawn, 5 lost in 27 matches170 won, 698 drawn, 170 lost in 1038 matches
Level after 15 minutes25 won, 16 drawn, 23 lost in 64 matches905 won, 730 drawn, 905 lost in 2540 matches
Level after 30 minutes18 won, 13 drawn, 17 lost in 48 matches643 won, 624 drawn, 643 lost in 1910 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes1 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 20 matches105 won, 145 drawn, 431 lost in 681 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScorePortsmouthLeague sides
All matches23 scored, 21 conceded (90)1022 scored, 1022 conceded (3554)
When leading after 75 minutes6 scored, 3 conceded (28)338 scored, 367 conceded (1235)
When level after 75 minutes6 scored, 10 conceded (27)317 scored, 317 conceded (1084)
When trailing after 75 minutes11 scored, 8 conceded (35)367 scored, 338 conceded (1235)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 18(league sides: 1,861 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 825)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

SouthamptonPortsmouth
86Matches with xG90
117.49xG for107.07
123Goals scored107
143.09xG against114.30
137Goals conceded125

Southampton

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Southampton: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026at Wrexham2.080.541–2
12 Sep 2026v Bristol City1.712.244–1
8 Sep 2026v Swansea1.441.223–1
5 Sep 2026at Lincoln0.772.271–1
1 Sep 2026at Birmingham1.021.551–1
29 Aug 2026v Millwall3.621.355–1
22 Aug 2026v Stoke City2.320.933–1
16 Aug 2026at Watford1.710.811–2
9 May 2026at Middlesbrough0.581.810–0
2 May 2026at Preston2.411.913–1

Portsmouth

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Portsmouth: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026v Blackburn1.600.592–2
12 Sep 2026at Charlton0.400.820–0
5 Sep 2026v Cardiff2.071.372–0
1 Sep 2026v Derby0.840.550–2
29 Aug 2026at Bristol City1.370.611–2
22 Aug 2026at Lincoln1.212.323–1
15 Aug 2026v QPR2.172.071–3
2 May 2026v Birmingham0.741.671–1
25 Apr 2026at Stoke City1.611.513–1
21 Apr 2026at Coventry0.103.261–5

Southampton: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

SouthamptonPortsmouth
8 of 8Matches with xG7 of 7
14Points in those matches8
13.23xPts10.56
14.67xG for9.66
10.91xG against8.33

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Southampton and Portsmouth

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • SouthamptonSouthamptonC. Jander (Lacking Match Fitness)
  • PortsmouthPortsmouthK. Anderson (Muscle Injury) · L. Brooke-Smith (Ankle Injury) · M. Kosznovszky (Knee Injury) · J. Murphy (Groin Injury) · C. Ogilvie (Knee Injury) · F. Umeh (Hamstring Injury) · T. Waddingham (Ankle Injury)

Published 11 Oct 2026, 10:57 BST · not changed since

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