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Championship
Southampton
4–1Finished
QPR
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 GMTMatchday 13 · St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton

Southampton v QPR match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Southampton are heavy favourites against QPR, with the model assessing a 58% chance of a home win. Southampton have won three of their last five matches and thrashed QPR 5-0 earlier this season, while QPR enter with five players unavailable through injury. Expected goals of 1.89 for Southampton and 1.02 for QPR suggest a notable disparity in attacking threat.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 58%Southampton win
  • 24%Draw
  • 18%QPR win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

SouthamptonSouthampton

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

  1. won3–2at West Ham
  2. drew0–0v Bolton
  3. won1–0at Norwich
  4. won1–0v Portsmouth
  5. lost1–2at Wrexham
QPRQPR

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

  1. won5–0v Swansea
  2. lost0–3at Birmingham
  3. won4–1v Derby
  4. drew1–1at West Ham
  5. drew2–2v Preston

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 326 of 417.
  • QPR won 26 of 34 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Southampton won 4 of the last 4 meetings.
  • Southampton unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

4 meetings: Southampton 4, draws 0, QPR 0

Goals: Southampton 10, QPR 2

DateMatchScore
24 Feb 2026Southampton v QPR5–0
5 Nov 2025QPR v Southampton1–2
23 Dec 2023QPR v Southampton0–1
26 Aug 2023Southampton v QPR2–1

Home and away

Southampton

Southampton at home

Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost

  • DrawnBolton17 Oct 20260–0
  • WonPortsmouth11 Oct 20261–0
  • WonBristol City12 Sep 20264–1
  • WonSwansea8 Sep 20263–1
  • WonMillwall29 Aug 20265–1

Southampton: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
24 scored, 9 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
QPR

QPR away

Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostBirmingham17 Oct 20260–3
  • DrawnWest Ham9 Oct 20261–1
  • DrawnWest Brom12 Sep 20261–1
  • DrawnCharlton9 Sep 20260–0
  • WonBlackburn29 Aug 20262–1

QPR: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
11 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Southampton
Last match
7 days before24 Oct 2026 · v West Ham · Championship
Next match
3 days after3 Nov 2026 · v West Brom · Championship
QPR
Last match
7 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Swansea · Championship
Next match
3 days after3 Nov 2026 · v Burnley · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 2 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

QPR

ScoreQPRLeague sides
Scored first26 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 34 matches1122 won, 350 drawn, 218 lost in 1690 matches
Conceded first8 won, 6 drawn, 33 lost in 47 matches218 won, 350 drawn, 1122 lost in 1690 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 15 drawn, 8 lost in 34 matches463 won, 582 drawn, 463 lost in 1508 matches
1 goal down at half-time3 won, 3 drawn, 14 lost in 20 matches95 won, 165 drawn, 512 lost in 772 matches
Level after 60 minutes11 won, 16 drawn, 3 lost in 30 matches343 won, 586 drawn, 343 lost in 1272 matches
2+ goals down after 60 minutes0 won, 1 drawn, 19 lost in 20 matches4 won, 12 drawn, 384 lost in 400 matches
Level after 70 minutes9 won, 20 drawn, 3 lost in 32 matches278 won, 634 drawn, 278 lost in 1190 matches
2+ goals down after 70 minutes0 won, 0 drawn, 20 lost in 20 matches1 won, 7 drawn, 446 lost in 454 matches
Level after 80 minutes5 won, 20 drawn, 2 lost in 27 matches175 won, 706 drawn, 175 lost in 1056 matches
Level after 15 minutes23 won, 22 drawn, 20 lost in 65 matches928 won, 744 drawn, 928 lost in 2600 matches
Level after 30 minutes14 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 43 matches661 won, 636 drawn, 661 lost in 1958 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes4 won, 2 drawn, 17 lost in 23 matches108 won, 147 drawn, 439 lost in 694 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreQPRLeague sides
All matches28 scored, 22 conceded (92)1050 scored, 1050 conceded (3632)
When leading after 75 minutes9 scored, 9 conceded (29)350 scored, 377 conceded (1266)
When level after 75 minutes9 scored, 3 conceded (28)323 scored, 323 conceded (1100)
When trailing after 75 minutes10 scored, 10 conceded (35)377 scored, 350 conceded (1266)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 52 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 20(league sides: 1,903 times, within 15 minutes 325, by full time 842)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 2 Nov 2024

SouthamptonQPR
88Matches with xG92
122.09xG for109.64
126Goals scored123
142.21xG against110.39
135Goals conceded129

Southampton

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Southampton: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026at West Ham1.611.603–2
17 Oct 2026v Bolton1.911.240–0
14 Oct 2026at Norwich2.161.261–0
11 Oct 2026v Portsmouth1.281.181–0
19 Sep 2026at Wrexham2.080.541–2
12 Sep 2026v Bristol City1.712.244–1
8 Sep 2026v Swansea1.441.223–1
5 Sep 2026at Lincoln0.772.271–1
1 Sep 2026at Birmingham1.021.551–1
29 Aug 2026v Millwall3.621.355–1

QPR

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
QPR: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026v Swansea3.300.275–0
17 Oct 2026at Birmingham1.171.340–3
14 Oct 2026v Derby2.051.024–1
9 Oct 2026at West Ham1.271.441–1
19 Sep 2026v Preston2.541.502–2
12 Sep 2026at West Brom0.621.221–1
9 Sep 2026at Charlton1.100.480–0
5 Sep 2026v Middlesbrough1.032.530–1
2 Sep 2026v Cardiff2.090.602–1
29 Aug 2026at Blackburn1.340.922–1

Southampton: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

SouthamptonQPR
12 of 12Matches with xG12 of 12
24Points in those matches20
19.81xPts20.56
21.63xG for20.40
16.19xG against13.68

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Southampton and QPR

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • SouthamptonSouthampton
    Doubtful
    F. Downes (Ankle Injury) · C. Larin (Hamstring Injury)
  • QPRQPR
    Ruled out
    R. Burrell (Inactive) · T. Lamptey (Inactive) · N. Madsen (Injury) · A. S. Mbengue (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    J. Clarke-Salter (Injury)

Published 31 Oct 2026, 13:58 GMT · not changed since

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