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Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam
1–2Finished
Ajax
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 15:45 GMTMatchday 10 · Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel, Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 25 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Ajax are favoured to win, but their trip to Sparta is complicated by eight players missing through injury. Sparta won their most recent match and could trouble Ajax's depleted defence, though Ajax are expected to create more chances overall.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 23%Sparta Rotterdam win
  • 23%Draw
  • 54%Ajax win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

AjaxAjax

Last 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Sparta Rotterdam won 20 of 32 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
  • Ajax won 36 of 48 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
  • Ajax won 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Sparta Rotterdam 0, draws 3, Ajax 7

Goals: Sparta Rotterdam 8, Ajax 22

DateMatchScore
14 Mar 2026Ajax v Sparta Rotterdam4–0
4 Oct 2025Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax3–3
27 Apr 2025Ajax v Sparta Rotterdam1–1
22 Dec 2024Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax0–2
17 Mar 2024Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax2–2
9 Dec 2023Ajax v Sparta Rotterdam2–1
19 Feb 2023Ajax v Sparta Rotterdam4–0
21 Aug 2022Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax0–1
9 Apr 2022Ajax v Sparta Rotterdam2–1
28 Nov 2021Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax0–1

Home and away

Sparta Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam at home

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonWillem II17 Oct 20263–2
  • LostHeerenveen19 Sep 20260–4
  • DrawnPEC Zwolle4 Sep 20262–2
  • DrawnUtrecht22 Aug 20263–3
  • LostFeyenoord9 Aug 20260–1

Sparta Rotterdam: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 20 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10
Ajax

Ajax away

Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonGroningen18 Oct 20265–2
  • LostHNK Hajduk SplitUEFA Europa Conference League15 Oct 20261–2
  • WonFortuna Sittard12 Sep 20265–1
  • WonTelstar30 Aug 20264–0
  • WonFC SionUEFA Europa Conference League20 Aug 20264–2

Ajax: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
23 scored, 7 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
6 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Sparta Rotterdam
Last match
8 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Willem II · Eredivisie
Next match
3 days after28 Oct 2026 · v Fortuna Sittard · KNVB Beker
Ajax
Last match
3 days before22 Oct 2026 · v Atalanta · UEFA Europa Conference League
Next match
6 days after31 Oct 2026 · v AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Sparta Rotterdam

Since 26 Oct 2024

ScoreSparta RotterdamLeague sides
Scored first20 won, 10 drawn, 2 lost in 32 matches649 won, 226 drawn, 120 lost in 995 matches
Conceded first1 won, 6 drawn, 28 lost in 35 matches120 won, 226 drawn, 649 lost in 995 matches
Level at half-time7 won, 12 drawn, 8 lost in 27 matches231 won, 300 drawn, 231 lost in 762 matches
Level after 70 minutes4 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 20 matches122 won, 322 drawn, 122 lost in 566 matches
Level after 15 minutes15 won, 14 drawn, 22 lost in 51 matches486 won, 396 drawn, 486 lost in 1368 matches
Level after 30 minutes9 won, 13 drawn, 19 lost in 41 matches340 won, 318 drawn, 340 lost in 998 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreSparta RotterdamLeague sides
All matches24 scored, 35 conceded (68)759 scored, 759 conceded (2072)
When leading after 75 minutes11 scored, 9 conceded (22)334 scored, 242 conceded (772)
When trailing after 75 minutes5 scored, 18 conceded (29)242 scored, 334 conceded (772)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 14(league sides: 1,184 times, within 15 minutes 200, by full time 546)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Ajax

Since 27 Oct 2024

ScoreAjaxLeague sides
Scored first36 won, 11 drawn, 1 lost in 48 matches649 won, 226 drawn, 120 lost in 995 matches
Conceded first8 won, 9 drawn, 21 lost in 38 matches120 won, 226 drawn, 649 lost in 995 matches
1 goal up at half-time16 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches297 won, 103 drawn, 53 lost in 453 matches
Level at half-time12 won, 13 drawn, 10 lost in 35 matches231 won, 300 drawn, 231 lost in 762 matches
2+ goals up after 60 minutes20 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches284 won, 21 drawn, 1 lost in 306 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes15 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches289 won, 102 drawn, 27 lost in 418 matches
Level after 60 minutes5 won, 14 drawn, 7 lost in 26 matches168 won, 288 drawn, 168 lost in 624 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes20 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches354 won, 11 drawn, 0 lost in 365 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes17 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches275 won, 95 drawn, 18 lost in 388 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 25 matches122 won, 322 drawn, 122 lost in 566 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes23 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches382 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 385 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes18 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches307 won, 94 drawn, 4 lost in 405 matches
Level after 80 minutes3 won, 17 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches76 won, 340 drawn, 76 lost in 492 matches
Level after 15 minutes29 won, 17 drawn, 15 lost in 61 matches486 won, 396 drawn, 486 lost in 1368 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes18 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches264 won, 98 drawn, 62 lost in 424 matches
Level after 30 minutes16 won, 15 drawn, 13 lost in 44 matches340 won, 318 drawn, 340 lost in 998 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreAjaxLeague sides
All matches34 scored, 29 conceded (89)759 scored, 759 conceded (2072)
When leading after 75 minutes15 scored, 11 conceded (43)334 scored, 242 conceded (772)
When level after 75 minutes12 scored, 9 conceded (25)183 scored, 183 conceded (528)
When trailing after 75 minutes7 scored, 9 conceded (21)242 scored, 334 conceded (772)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 45 times, equalised within 15 minutes 10, by full time 27(league sides: 1,184 times, within 15 minutes 200, by full time 546)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Sparta RotterdamAjax
68Since 26 Oct 2024Matches with xG70Since 27 Oct 2024
94.50xG for126.83
84Goals scored140
107.20xG against84.48
116Goals conceded76

Sparta Rotterdam

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Sparta Rotterdam: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026v Willem II3.651.633–2
10 Oct 2026at GO Ahead Eagles2.361.293–3
19 Sep 2026v Heerenveen0.671.800–4
13 Sep 2026at PSV Eindhoven2.293.751–4
4 Sep 2026v PEC Zwolle2.231.072–2
29 Aug 2026at Excelsior1.031.321–2
22 Aug 2026v Utrecht1.731.923–3
14 Aug 2026at Telstar2.541.403–1
9 Aug 2026v Feyenoord1.013.530–1
17 May 2026v Excelsior1.760.952–3

Ajax

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Ajax: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
18 Oct 2026at Groningen3.042.295–2
10 Oct 2026v NEC Nijmegen1.781.051–1
19 Sep 2026v Excelsior2.510.822–2
15 Sep 2026v Willem II3.791.585–1
12 Sep 2026at Fortuna Sittard4.130.715–1
5 Sep 2026v PSV Eindhoven1.992.551–3
30 Aug 2026at Telstar2.131.134–0
16 Aug 2026v Heerenveen2.001.362–2
9 Aug 2026at PEC Zwolle1.540.592–0
21 May 2026v Groningen1.830.162–0

Ajax: 2 without xG left out

This league season

Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

Sparta RotterdamAjax
9 of 9Matches with xG9 of 9
9Points in those matches18
12.65xPts18.25
17.51xG for22.91
17.71xG against12.08

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam
    Ruled out
    S. Mito (Injury)
  • AjaxAjax
    Ruled out
    S. Adingra (Lacking Match Fitness) · Caio Henrique (Thigh Injury) · K. Dolberg (Knee Injury) · O. Edvardsen (Inactive) · A. Gaaei (Injury)
    Doubtful
    S. Berghuis (Injury) · D. Blind (Back Injury)

Published 25 Oct 2026, 14:43 GMT · not changed since

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