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Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam
3–2Finished
Willem II
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 20:00 BSTMatchday 9 · Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel, Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Sparta Rotterdam are modelled as 52% favourites against Willem II, with expected goals of 2.96 total. Sparta have dominated their recent meetings, winning 5-1 and 4-0, though both teams show poor recent form.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 52%Sparta Rotterdam win
  • 25%Draw
  • 23%Willem II win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam

Last 5: no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats

Willem IIWillem II

Last 5: no wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Sparta Rotterdam won 20 of 32 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Eredivisie, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 159 of 217.
  • Sparta Rotterdam won 5 of the last 5 meetings.
  • Sparta Rotterdam without a win in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

5 meetings: Sparta Rotterdam 5, draws 0, Willem II 0

Goals: Sparta Rotterdam 15, Willem II 2

DateMatchScore
18 Dec 2025Willem II v Sparta RotterdamKNVB Beker1–5
2 Mar 2025Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II4–0
31 Aug 2024Willem II v Sparta Rotterdam1–2
13 Feb 2022Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II1–0
6 Nov 2021Willem II v Sparta Rotterdam0–3

Home and away

Sparta Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam at home

Last 5: 0 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostHeerenveen19 Sep 20260–4
  • DrawnPEC Zwolle4 Sep 20262–2
  • DrawnUtrecht22 Aug 20263–3
  • LostFeyenoord9 Aug 20260–1
  • LostExcelsior17 May 20262–3

Sparta Rotterdam: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10
Willem II

Willem II away

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostUtrecht11 Oct 20261–3
  • LostAjax15 Sep 20261–5
  • DrawnAZ Alkmaar11 Sep 20261–1
  • LostGO Ahead Eagles8 Aug 20261–4
  • WonFC VolendamEerste Divisie23 May 20262–1 PEN

Willem II: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Sparta Rotterdam
Last match
7 days before10 Oct 2026 · v GO Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie
Next match
8 days after25 Oct 2026 · v Ajax · Eredivisie
Willem II
Last match
6 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Utrecht · Eredivisie
Next match
7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Cambuur · Eredivisie

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Sparta Rotterdam

ScoreSparta RotterdamLeague sides
Scored first20 won, 10 drawn, 2 lost in 32 matches643 won, 223 drawn, 117 lost in 983 matches
Conceded first0 won, 7 drawn, 28 lost in 35 matches117 won, 223 drawn, 643 lost in 983 matches
Level at half-time6 won, 12 drawn, 8 lost in 26 matches229 won, 296 drawn, 229 lost in 754 matches
Level after 60 minutes3 won, 11 drawn, 6 lost in 20 matches166 won, 286 drawn, 166 lost in 618 matches
Level after 70 minutes4 won, 13 drawn, 4 lost in 21 matches121 won, 320 drawn, 121 lost in 562 matches
Level after 15 minutes14 won, 14 drawn, 22 lost in 50 matches480 won, 392 drawn, 480 lost in 1352 matches
Level after 30 minutes9 won, 13 drawn, 19 lost in 41 matches339 won, 312 drawn, 339 lost in 990 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreSparta RotterdamLeague sides
All matches24 scored, 35 conceded (68)750 scored, 750 conceded (2048)
When leading after 75 minutes11 scored, 9 conceded (21)332 scored, 236 conceded (761)
When trailing after 75 minutes5 scored, 18 conceded (29)236 scored, 332 conceded (761)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 14(league sides: 1,168 times, within 15 minutes 199, by full time 538)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

Sparta RotterdamWillem II
68Matches with xG—
93.25xG for—
83Goals scored—
106.34xG against—
116Goals conceded—

Sparta Rotterdam

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Sparta Rotterdam: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026at GO Ahead Eagles2.361.293–3
19 Sep 2026v Heerenveen0.671.800–4
13 Sep 2026at PSV Eindhoven2.293.751–4
4 Sep 2026v PEC Zwolle2.231.072–2
29 Aug 2026at Excelsior1.031.321–2
22 Aug 2026v Utrecht1.731.923–3
14 Aug 2026at Telstar2.541.403–1
9 Aug 2026v Feyenoord1.013.530–1
17 May 2026v Excelsior1.760.952–3
10 May 2026at Twente0.863.920–4

This league season

Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

Sparta RotterdamWillem II
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
6Points in those matches2
10.29xPts7.02
13.86xG for9.73
16.08xG against17.20

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam
    Ruled out
    S. Mito (Injury) · M. van Bergen (Inactive)
  • Willem IIWillem II
    Ruled out
    A. Culum (Foot Injury) · T. Didillon Hodl (Hamstring Injury) · J. Hoogma (Knee Injury) · A. Lachkar (Groin Injury)
    Doubtful
    K. Boogaard (Knock)

Published 17 Oct 2026, 19:12 BST · not changed since

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