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Jupiler Pro League
St. Truiden
1–2Finished
OH Leuven
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 15:00 GMTMatchday 10 · Stayen, Sint- Truiden

St. Truiden v OH Leuven match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 1 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model gives St. Truiden a 57% chance of winning, with draws at 24% and OH Leuven at 19%. Expected goals stand at 1.83 for the hosts and 1.01 for the visitors, a gap of 0.82 in St. Truiden's favour, suggesting a 2.84 total. St. Truiden have won just once in their last five matches, while OH Leuven are erratic, with one win, two draws and a loss in the same span.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 57%St. Truiden win
  • 24%Draw
  • 19%OH Leuven win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

St. TruidenSt. Truiden

Last 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats

  1. lost2–3at Club Brugge KV
  2. lost3–4at KV Mechelen
  3. lost0–2v KVC Westerlo
  4. lost0–2at SK Beveren
  5. won4–0v RAAL La Louvière
OH LeuvenOH Leuven

Last 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat

  1. drew2–2v Lommel United
  2. drew1–1at Union St. Gilloise
  3. won2–0v RAAL La Louvière
  4. drew1–1v Cercle Brugge
  5. lost0–3at SK Beveren

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • St. Truiden won 24 of 32 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • OH Leuven won 14 of 28 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • OH Leuven without a win in their last 5 away games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: St. Truiden 3, draws 4, OH Leuven 3

Goals: St. Truiden 10, OH Leuven 13

DateMatchScore
18 Jan 2026St. Truiden v OH Leuven1–0
23 Nov 2025OH Leuven v St. Truiden1–2
16 Mar 2025OH Leuven v St. Truiden3–2
15 Sep 2024St. Truiden v OH Leuven2–1
17 May 2024St. Truiden v OH Leuven1–1
20 Apr 2024OH Leuven v St. Truiden1–0
9 Dec 2023St. Truiden v OH Leuven1–1
22 Oct 2023OH Leuven v St. Truiden4–0
28 Jan 2023OH Leuven v St. Truiden1–1
22 Oct 2022St. Truiden v OH Leuven0–0

Home and away

St. Truiden

St. Truiden at home

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonFC Iberia 1999UEFA Europa Conference League15 Oct 20262–0
  • LostKVC Westerlo20 Sep 20260–2
  • WonRAAL La Louvière5 Sep 20264–0
  • LostUnion St. Gilloise2 Sep 20260–3
  • WonOmonia NicosiaUEFA Europa League20 Aug 20261–0

St. Truiden: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
OH Leuven

OH Leuven away

Last 5: 0 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost

  • DrawnUnion St. Gilloise11 Oct 20261–1
  • LostSK Beveren6 Sep 20260–3
  • LostGent3 Sep 20260–1
  • LostCharleroi9 Aug 20261–3
  • DrawnCharleroi19 May 20261–1

OH Leuven: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
9 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

St. Truiden
Last match
7 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Club Brugge KV · Jupiler Pro League
Next match
4 days after5 Nov 2026 · v Brann · UEFA Europa Conference League
OH Leuven
Last match
8 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Lommel United · Jupiler Pro League
Next match
6 days after7 Nov 2026 · v KV Mechelen · Jupiler Pro League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 2 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

St. Truiden

ScoreSt. TruidenLeague sides
Scored first24 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost in 32 matches643 won, 196 drawn, 122 lost in 961 matches
Conceded first8 won, 8 drawn, 26 lost in 42 matches122 won, 196 drawn, 643 lost in 961 matches
Level at half-time12 won, 5 drawn, 9 lost in 26 matches241 won, 328 drawn, 241 lost in 810 matches
Level after 60 minutes11 won, 5 drawn, 7 lost in 23 matches170 won, 304 drawn, 170 lost in 644 matches
Level after 70 minutes12 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost in 23 matches118 won, 338 drawn, 118 lost in 574 matches
Level after 80 minutes8 won, 9 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches105 won, 368 drawn, 105 lost in 578 matches
Level after 15 minutes24 won, 9 drawn, 25 lost in 58 matches529 won, 412 drawn, 529 lost in 1470 matches
Level after 30 minutes13 won, 4 drawn, 14 lost in 31 matches380 won, 344 drawn, 380 lost in 1104 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreSt. TruidenLeague sides
All matches31 scored, 18 conceded (75)687 scored, 687 conceded (2070)
When leading after 75 minutes9 scored, 4 conceded (25)268 scored, 244 conceded (746)
When level after 75 minutes14 scored, 6 conceded (21)175 scored, 175 conceded (578)
When trailing after 75 minutes8 scored, 8 conceded (29)244 scored, 268 conceded (746)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 22(league sides: 1,097 times, within 15 minutes 162, by full time 482)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

OH Leuven

ScoreOH LeuvenLeague sides
Scored first14 won, 10 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches643 won, 196 drawn, 122 lost in 961 matches
Conceded first3 won, 8 drawn, 31 lost in 42 matches122 won, 196 drawn, 643 lost in 961 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 15 drawn, 15 lost in 39 matches241 won, 328 drawn, 241 lost in 810 matches
Level after 60 minutes9 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 29 matches170 won, 304 drawn, 170 lost in 644 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes1 won, 4 drawn, 20 lost in 25 matches31 won, 106 drawn, 327 lost in 464 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 15 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches118 won, 338 drawn, 118 lost in 574 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 3 drawn, 21 lost in 25 matches21 won, 94 drawn, 338 lost in 453 matches
Level after 80 minutes2 won, 18 drawn, 3 lost in 23 matches105 won, 368 drawn, 105 lost in 578 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes1 won, 3 drawn, 19 lost in 23 matches9 won, 81 drawn, 325 lost in 415 matches
Level after 15 minutes13 won, 20 drawn, 24 lost in 57 matches529 won, 412 drawn, 529 lost in 1470 matches
Level after 30 minutes14 won, 17 drawn, 18 lost in 49 matches380 won, 344 drawn, 380 lost in 1104 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreOH LeuvenLeague sides
All matches19 scored, 27 conceded (77)687 scored, 687 conceded (2070)
When level after 75 minutes6 scored, 6 conceded (24)175 scored, 175 conceded (578)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 14 conceded (36)244 scored, 268 conceded (746)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 18(league sides: 1,097 times, within 15 minutes 162, by full time 482)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 28 Jul 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 2 Nov 2024

St. TruidenOH Leuven
73Matches with xG77
120.10xG for95.02
111Goals scored75
105.11xG against124.10
110Goals conceded112

St. Truiden

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
St. Truiden: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026at Club Brugge KV1.812.672–3
11 Oct 2026at KV Mechelen1.630.783–4
20 Sep 2026v KVC Westerlo2.001.870–2
12 Sep 2026at SK Beveren0.721.690–2
5 Sep 2026v RAAL La Louvière2.400.444–0
2 Sep 2026v Union St. Gilloise0.852.490–3
30 Aug 2026at Antwerp3.380.774–1
14 Aug 2026at Cercle Brugge2.044.153–3
8 Aug 2026v Lommel United1.981.491–1
24 May 2026v KV Mechelen1.520.423–0

OH Leuven

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
OH Leuven: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026v Lommel United3.430.972–2
11 Oct 2026at Union St. Gilloise1.461.141–1
19 Sep 2026v RAAL La Louvière0.860.472–0
12 Sep 2026v Cercle Brugge0.921.601–1
6 Sep 2026at SK Beveren0.882.680–3
3 Sep 2026at Gent0.520.980–1
29 Aug 2026v Standard Liege1.891.361–2
15 Aug 2026v Club Brugge KV0.722.920–3
9 Aug 2026at Charleroi1.303.151–3
23 May 2026v Genk1.091.470–2

This league season

Jupiler Pro League matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

St. TruidenOH Leuven
9 of 9Matches with xG9 of 9
8Points in those matches6
13.05xPts10.66
16.81xG for11.98
16.35xG against15.27

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: St. Truiden and OH Leuven

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

Team news was not available for this match.

Published 1 Nov 2026, 13:57 GMT · not changed since

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