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Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29
1–2Finished
Nice
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 19:45 BSTMatchday 8 · Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest

Stade Brestois 29 v Nice match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 23 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Brest hold a 46% chance of victory at home, with Nice at 27% and a draw rated at 27%. The model expects 2.76 goals total, with a 0.4 gap in Brest's favour. Both teams face considerable injury lists heading into this fixture.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 46%Stade Brestois 29 win
  • 27%Draw
  • 27%Nice win

PRO analysis

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

NiceNice

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Stade Brestois 29 won 25 of 38 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
  • Nice won 23 of 37 matches in which they scored first, since 24 Oct 2024.
  • Nice won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Nice without a win in their last 5 away games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Stade Brestois 29 2, draws 3, Nice 5

Goals: Stade Brestois 29 8, Nice 16

DateMatchScore
1 Feb 2026Nice v Stade Brestois 292–2
20 Sep 2025Stade Brestois 29 v Nice4–1
17 May 2025Nice v Stade Brestois 296–0
2 Nov 2024Stade Brestois 29 v Nice0–1
4 Feb 2024Stade Brestois 29 v Nice0–0
1 Oct 2023Nice v Stade Brestois 290–0
16 Apr 2023Stade Brestois 29 v Nice1–0
6 Nov 2022Nice v Stade Brestois 291–0
9 Jan 2022Stade Brestois 29 v Nice0–3
2 Oct 2021Nice v Stade Brestois 292–1

Home and away

Stade Brestois 29

Stade Brestois 29 at home

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonAngers10 Oct 20265–1
  • LostParis Saint Germain13 Sep 20260–1
  • DrawnToulouse29 Aug 20262–2
  • DrawnAngers17 May 20261–1
  • LostStrasbourg13 May 20261–2

Stade Brestois 29: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
21 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Nice

Nice away

Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostLyon18 Oct 20261–2
  • LostAuxerre12 Sep 20260–1
  • LostParis FC30 Aug 20260–3
  • DrawnSaint Etienne26 May 20260–0
  • LostLensCoupe de France22 May 20261–3

Nice: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
6 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Stade Brestois 29
Last match
6 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Lille · Ligue 1
Next match
10 days after2 Nov 2026 · v Lorient · Ligue 1
Nice
Last match
5 days before18 Oct 2026 · v Lyon · Ligue 1
Next match
7 days after30 Oct 2026 · v Rennes · Ligue 1

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Stade Brestois 29

Since 26 Oct 2024

ScoreStade Brestois 29League sides
Scored first25 won, 7 drawn, 6 lost in 38 matches639 won, 166 drawn, 113 lost in 918 matches
Conceded first1 won, 5 drawn, 26 lost in 32 matches113 won, 166 drawn, 639 lost in 918 matches
1 goal up at half-time16 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches317 won, 84 drawn, 41 lost in 442 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes17 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches315 won, 83 drawn, 29 lost in 427 matches
Level after 15 minutes16 won, 8 drawn, 19 lost in 43 matches516 won, 354 drawn, 516 lost in 1386 matches
Level after 30 minutes9 won, 8 drawn, 9 lost in 26 matches351 won, 314 drawn, 351 lost in 1016 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes1 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches61 won, 69 drawn, 266 lost in 396 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreStade Brestois 29League sides
All matches18 scored, 31 conceded (74)657 scored, 657 conceded (1974)
When leading after 75 minutes10 scored, 8 conceded (26)277 scored, 222 conceded (710)
When trailing after 75 minutes5 scored, 17 conceded (31)222 scored, 277 conceded (710)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 43 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 15(league sides: 1,071 times, within 15 minutes 163, by full time 469)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Nice

Since 24 Oct 2024

ScoreNiceLeague sides
Scored first23 won, 7 drawn, 7 lost in 37 matches639 won, 166 drawn, 113 lost in 918 matches
Conceded first3 won, 9 drawn, 31 lost in 43 matches113 won, 166 drawn, 639 lost in 918 matches
1 goal up at half-time12 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches317 won, 84 drawn, 41 lost in 442 matches
Level at half-time8 won, 9 drawn, 10 lost in 27 matches255 won, 276 drawn, 255 lost in 786 matches
1 goal down at half-time1 won, 4 drawn, 16 lost in 21 matches41 won, 84 drawn, 317 lost in 442 matches
Level after 60 minutes5 won, 11 drawn, 12 lost in 28 matches177 won, 282 drawn, 177 lost in 636 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes0 won, 7 drawn, 14 lost in 21 matches22 won, 79 drawn, 320 lost in 421 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 5 drawn, 18 lost in 23 matches8 won, 66 drawn, 320 lost in 394 matches
Level after 15 minutes18 won, 16 drawn, 24 lost in 58 matches516 won, 354 drawn, 516 lost in 1386 matches
Level after 30 minutes12 won, 12 drawn, 20 lost in 44 matches351 won, 314 drawn, 351 lost in 1016 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreNiceLeague sides
All matches20 scored, 24 conceded (85)657 scored, 657 conceded (1974)
When leading after 75 minutes11 scored, 9 conceded (30)277 scored, 222 conceded (710)
When trailing after 75 minutes8 scored, 9 conceded (38)222 scored, 277 conceded (710)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 52 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 19(league sides: 1,071 times, within 15 minutes 163, by full time 469)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Stade Brestois 29Nice
67Since 26 Oct 2024Matches with xG67Since 27 Oct 2024
95.86xG for100.76
97Goals scored93
103.08xG against100.91
110Goals conceded102

Stade Brestois 29

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Stade Brestois 29: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026at Lille0.842.251–1
10 Oct 2026v Angers3.821.395–1
20 Sep 2026at Auxerre0.340.961–2
13 Sep 2026v Paris Saint Germain1.241.160–1
5 Sep 2026at Le Havre2.372.022–1
29 Aug 2026v Toulouse3.041.142–2
22 Aug 2026at Le Mans2.720.672–2
17 May 2026v Angers1.570.681–1
13 May 2026v Strasbourg3.062.021–2
10 May 2026at Paris Saint Germain0.171.490–1

Nice

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Nice: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
18 Oct 2026at Lyon1.611.601–2
11 Oct 2026v Strasbourg1.250.632–1
20 Sep 2026v Lille1.501.582–1
12 Sep 2026at Auxerre1.081.740–1
5 Sep 2026v Le Mans1.121.281–1
30 Aug 2026at Paris FC0.782.380–3
22 Aug 2026v Lorient1.051.280–0
17 May 2026v Metz1.640.850–0
10 May 2026at Auxerre1.330.841–2
2 May 2026v Lens1.071.531–1

Nice: 2 without xG left out

This league season

Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.

Stade Brestois 29Nice
7 of 7Matches with xG7 of 7
9Points in those matches8
11.78xPts8.42
14.37xG for8.39
9.59xG against10.49

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Stade Brestois 29 and Nice

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
    Ruled out
    B. Chardonnet (Calf Injury) · R. Le Guen (Broken Leg)
    Doubtful
    G. Versini (Leg Injury)
  • NiceNice
    Ruled out
    A. Abdi (Muscle Injury) · L. Abergel (Knee Injury) · M. Bombito (Leg Injury) · A. Mendy (Knee Injury)

Published 23 Oct 2026, 18:43 BST · not changed since

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