Stoke City v Birmingham · analysis and preview
Add to JournalNo signal on this match
Most likely: Birmingham win
How the match could end · our estimate
- 35%Stoke City win
- 29%Draw
- 36%Birmingham win
PRO analysis
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Form · newest first
Stoke CityLast 5: 4 wins, 1 draw, no defeats
- won2–1at Portsmouth
- won2–1at Blackburn
- won2–0v Preston
- drew0–0v Bristol City
- won1–0at Derby
BirminghamLast 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat
- won2–1v Swansea
- won3–0v Millwall
- won3–1at Lincoln
- lost0–1at Cardiff
- won3–0v QPR
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Stoke City won 26 of 41 matches in which they scored first, since 23 Nov 2024.
- Birmingham won 22 of 29 matches in which they scored first, since 8 Aug 2025.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Birmingham's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
8 meetings: Stoke City 2, draws 4, Birmingham 2
Goals: Stoke City 9, Birmingham 8
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | Birmingham v Stoke City | 1–1 |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Stoke City v Birmingham | 1–0 |
| 20 Jan 2024 | Stoke City v Birmingham | 1–2 |
| 26 Dec 2023 | Birmingham v Stoke City | 1–3 |
| 10 Apr 2023 | Birmingham v Stoke City | 0–0 |
| 5 Nov 2022 | Stoke City v Birmingham | 1–2 |
| 19 Feb 2022 | Stoke City v Birmingham | 2–2 |
| 14 Aug 2021 | Birmingham v Stoke City | 0–0 |
Home and away
Stoke CityStoke City at home
Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
- WonPreston31 Oct 20262–0
- DrawnBristol City24 Oct 20260–0
- LostMiddlesbrough13 Oct 20262–3
- WonSheffield Utd19 Sep 20262–1
- WonCharlton5 Sep 20264–0
Stoke City: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 15 scored, 13 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
BirminghamBirmingham away
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- WonLincoln31 Oct 20263–1
- LostCardiff24 Oct 20260–1
- WonWest Brom10 Oct 20261–0
- WonDerby12 Sep 20262–1
- LostNorwich9 Sep 20261–2
Birmingham: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Stoke City- Last match
- 14 days before7 Nov 2026 · v Portsmouth · Championship
- Next match
- Not known
Birmingham- Last match
- 14 days before7 Nov 2026 · v Swansea · Championship
- Next match
- Not known
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Stoke City
Since 23 Nov 2024
| Score | Stoke City | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 26 won, 8 drawn, 7 lost in 41 matches | 1138 won, 353 drawn, 221 lost in 1712 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 4 drawn, 31 lost in 39 matches | 221 won, 353 drawn, 1138 lost in 1712 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 14 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches | 518 won, 167 drawn, 96 lost in 781 matches |
| Level at half-time | 11 won, 14 drawn, 19 lost in 44 matches | 467 won, 584 drawn, 467 lost in 1518 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 16 drawn, 13 lost in 35 matches | 344 won, 590 drawn, 344 lost in 1278 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 6 won, 19 drawn, 11 lost in 36 matches | 279 won, 640 drawn, 279 lost in 1198 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 2 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches | 47 won, 153 drawn, 576 lost in 776 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 19 drawn, 8 lost in 31 matches | 175 won, 712 drawn, 175 lost in 1062 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 23 won, 20 drawn, 23 lost in 66 matches | 937 won, 750 drawn, 937 lost in 2624 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 17 won, 15 drawn, 21 lost in 53 matches | 669 won, 640 drawn, 669 lost in 1978 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Stoke City | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 17 scored, 33 conceded (91) | 1065 scored, 1065 conceded (3678) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 10 conceded (28) | 356 scored, 386 conceded (1286) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 11 conceded (31) | 323 scored, 323 conceded (1106) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 12 conceded (32) | 386 scored, 356 conceded (1286) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 45 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 17(league sides: 1,929 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 852)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Birmingham
Since 8 Aug 2025
| Score | Birmingham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 22 won, 6 drawn, 1 lost in 29 matches | 1138 won, 353 drawn, 221 lost in 1712 matches |
| Conceded first | 2 won, 10 drawn, 17 lost in 29 matches | 221 won, 353 drawn, 1138 lost in 1712 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 15 won, 13 drawn, 12 lost in 40 matches | 937 won, 750 drawn, 937 lost in 2624 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 11 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 30 matches | 669 won, 640 drawn, 669 lost in 1978 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Birmingham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 14 scored, 9 conceded (60) | 1065 scored, 1065 conceded (3678) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 3 scored, 3 conceded (23) | 356 scored, 386 conceded (1286) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 4 conceded (21) | 386 scored, 356 conceded (1286) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 33 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 16(league sides: 1,929 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 852)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Stoke City | Birmingham | |
|---|---|---|
| 91Since 23 Nov 2024 | Matches with xG | 60Since 8 Aug 2025 |
| 98.10 | xG for | 86.60 |
| 100 | Goals scored | 83 |
| 132.44 | xG against | 67.49 |
| 116 | Goals conceded | 69 |
Stoke City
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov 2026 | at Blackburn | 1.29 | 1.90 | 2–1 |
| 31 Oct 2026 | v Preston | 2.22 | 0.16 | 2–0 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | v Bristol City | 0.71 | 0.79 | 0–0 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | at Derby | 0.62 | 1.07 | 1–0 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | v Middlesbrough | 0.65 | 2.57 | 2–3 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Bolton | 0.74 | 3.13 | 2–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Sheffield Utd | 0.65 | 0.36 | 2–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Watford | 1.50 | 0.39 | 2–1 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | at Cardiff | 0.75 | 2.92 | 1–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Charlton | 2.14 | 0.61 | 4–0 |
Birmingham
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov 2026 | v Millwall | 1.38 | 1.44 | 3–0 |
| 31 Oct 2026 | at Lincoln | 2.09 | 1.63 | 3–1 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | at Cardiff | 0.91 | 2.40 | 0–1 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | v QPR | 1.34 | 1.17 | 3–0 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | v Preston | 2.24 | 0.49 | 4–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at West Brom | 2.55 | 1.05 | 1–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Middlesbrough | 1.23 | 2.14 | 2–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Derby | 3.17 | 1.11 | 2–1 |
| 9 Sep 2026 | at Norwich | 1.63 | 1.01 | 1–2 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Wolves | 1.39 | 2.47 | 2–2 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Stoke City | Birmingham | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 of 15 | Matches with xG | 14 of 15 |
| 26 | Points in those matches | 26 |
| 16.04 | xPts | 22.42 |
| 14.26 | xG for | 23.85 |
| 20.94 | xG against | 19.07 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Stoke City and Birmingham
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news not available yet.
Updated 7 Nov 2026, 17:53 GMT
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