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Championship
Stoke City
0–0Finished
Bristol City
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00 BSTMatchday 12 · bet365 Stadium, Stoke-On-Trent

Stoke City v Bristol City match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Stoke City hold a 42% chance of victory at home, with Bristol City at 29% and a draw at 29%. The hosts arrive in strong form with four wins in five, while Bristol City are struggling without a win in three matches. The expected goal difference slightly favours Stoke (1.35 to 1.09).

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 42%Stoke City win
  • 29%Draw
  • 29%Bristol City win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Stoke CityStoke City

Last 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat

Bristol CityBristol City

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Stoke City won 26 of 41 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
  • Bristol City won 28 of 39 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
  • Bristol City won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Stoke City's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Stoke City 4, draws 1, Bristol City 5

Goals: Stoke City 17, Bristol City 14

DateMatchScore
2 May 2026Bristol City v Stoke City2–0
1 Nov 2025Stoke City v Bristol City5–1
12 Feb 2025Bristol City v Stoke City2–0
22 Oct 2024Stoke City v Bristol City2–2
4 May 2024Stoke City v Bristol City4–0
30 Sep 2023Bristol City v Stoke City2–3
7 Apr 2023Stoke City v Bristol City1–2
17 Dec 2022Bristol City v Stoke City1–2
15 Apr 2022Stoke City v Bristol City0–1
24 Nov 2021Bristol City v Stoke City1–0

Home and away

Stoke City

Stoke City at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostMiddlesbrough13 Oct 20262–3
  • WonSheffield Utd19 Sep 20262–1
  • WonCharlton5 Sep 20264–0
  • WonNorwich1 Sep 20261–0
  • DrawnHull CityLeague Cup25 Aug 20261–1 PEN

Stoke City: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Bristol City

Bristol City away

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • DrawnCharlton10 Oct 20261–1
  • LostSouthampton12 Sep 20261–4
  • WonBurnley5 Sep 20262–1
  • WonPreston1 Sep 20263–1
  • DrawnBirmingham22 Aug 20262–2

Bristol City: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
9 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Stoke City
Last match
7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Derby · Championship
Next match
7 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Preston · Championship
Bristol City
Last match
7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Sheffield Utd · Championship
Next match
7 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Bolton · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 26 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Stoke City

ScoreStoke CityLeague sides
Scored first26 won, 8 drawn, 7 lost in 41 matches1116 won, 348 drawn, 215 lost in 1679 matches
Conceded first4 won, 5 drawn, 32 lost in 41 matches215 won, 348 drawn, 1116 lost in 1679 matches
Level at half-time12 won, 13 drawn, 19 lost in 44 matches460 won, 578 drawn, 460 lost in 1498 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 16 drawn, 13 lost in 35 matches342 won, 582 drawn, 342 lost in 1266 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 19 drawn, 11 lost in 37 matches277 won, 630 drawn, 277 lost in 1184 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 2 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches45 won, 151 drawn, 565 lost in 761 matches
Level after 80 minutes5 won, 19 drawn, 8 lost in 32 matches174 won, 702 drawn, 174 lost in 1050 matches
Level after 15 minutes22 won, 20 drawn, 23 lost in 65 matches923 won, 738 drawn, 923 lost in 2584 matches
Level after 30 minutes17 won, 15 drawn, 21 lost in 53 matches656 won, 630 drawn, 656 lost in 1942 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreStoke CityLeague sides
All matches19 scored, 32 conceded (92)1042 scored, 1042 conceded (3608)
When leading after 75 minutes6 scored, 9 conceded (27)347 scored, 375 conceded (1257)
When level after 75 minutes7 scored, 11 conceded (32)320 scored, 320 conceded (1094)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 12 conceded (33)375 scored, 347 conceded (1257)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 18(league sides: 1,891 times, within 15 minutes 323, by full time 838)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Bristol City

ScoreBristol CityLeague sides
Scored first28 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost in 39 matches1116 won, 348 drawn, 215 lost in 1679 matches
Conceded first7 won, 11 drawn, 32 lost in 50 matches215 won, 348 drawn, 1116 lost in 1679 matches
1 goal up at half-time15 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches508 won, 164 drawn, 95 lost in 767 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 16 drawn, 9 lost in 35 matches460 won, 578 drawn, 460 lost in 1498 matches
1 goal down at half-time2 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 23 matches95 won, 164 drawn, 508 lost in 767 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes17 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches539 won, 170 drawn, 65 lost in 774 matches
Level after 60 minutes5 won, 16 drawn, 6 lost in 27 matches342 won, 582 drawn, 342 lost in 1266 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes2 won, 3 drawn, 18 lost in 23 matches65 won, 170 drawn, 539 lost in 774 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 23 matches277 won, 630 drawn, 277 lost in 1184 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes2 won, 5 drawn, 19 lost in 26 matches45 won, 151 drawn, 565 lost in 761 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes17 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches645 won, 119 drawn, 17 lost in 781 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes1 won, 5 drawn, 16 lost in 22 matches17 won, 119 drawn, 645 lost in 781 matches
Level after 15 minutes21 won, 20 drawn, 26 lost in 67 matches923 won, 738 drawn, 923 lost in 2584 matches
Level after 30 minutes15 won, 19 drawn, 17 lost in 51 matches656 won, 630 drawn, 656 lost in 1942 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBristol CityLeague sides
All matches25 scored, 26 conceded (94)1042 scored, 1042 conceded (3608)
When leading after 75 minutes8 scored, 12 conceded (34)347 scored, 375 conceded (1257)
When level after 75 minutes8 scored, 5 conceded (24)320 scored, 320 conceded (1094)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 9 conceded (36)375 scored, 347 conceded (1257)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 53 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 22(league sides: 1,891 times, within 15 minutes 323, by full time 838)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 26 Oct 2024

Stoke CityBristol City
92Matches with xG94
99.33xG for113.60
101Goals scored116
136.08xG against124.49
119Goals conceded119

Stoke City

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Stoke City: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026at Derby0.621.071–0
13 Oct 2026v Middlesbrough0.652.572–3
10 Oct 2026at Bolton0.743.132–1
19 Sep 2026v Sheffield Utd0.650.362–1
12 Sep 2026at Watford1.500.392–1
8 Sep 2026at Cardiff0.752.921–1
5 Sep 2026v Charlton2.140.614–0
1 Sep 2026v Norwich0.581.441–0
29 Aug 2026at Wolves0.832.661–4
22 Aug 2026at Southampton0.932.321–3

Bristol City

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Bristol City: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026v Sheffield Utd0.581.230–1
13 Oct 2026v Blackburn1.950.150–1
10 Oct 2026at Charlton1.471.781–1
18 Sep 2026v Watford1.560.521–0
15 Sep 2026v Lincoln1.530.530–1
12 Sep 2026at Southampton2.241.711–4
5 Sep 2026at Burnley1.060.262–1
1 Sep 2026at Preston1.781.913–1
29 Aug 2026v Portsmouth0.611.372–1
22 Aug 2026at Birmingham1.431.982–2

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

Stoke CityBristol City
11 of 11Matches with xG11 of 11
19Points in those matches14
11.10xPts15.92
10.04xG for14.73
18.09xG against14.84

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Stoke City and Bristol City

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Stoke CityStoke City
    Ruled out
    A. Ampah (Knee Injury) · E. Bocat (Injury) · A. Cresswell (Knee Injury) · S. Gallagher (Injury) · S. Ingelsson (Muscle Injury)
  • Bristol CityBristol City
    Ruled out
    R. Dickie (Knee Injury) · N. Eile (Illness)
    Doubtful
    E. Adebayo (Inactive)

Published 24 Oct 2026, 13:58 BST · not changed since

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