Stoke City v Middlesbrough match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Tue 13 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
The model rates this fixture as a coin-flip, with Middlesbrough marginally favoured at 37% to win versus Stoke City's 35%. Stoke City arrive in stronger form but are hampered by three absences, while expected goals total 2.51 with minimal daylight between the sides.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 34%Stoke City win
- 29%Draw
- 37%Middlesbrough win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
Stoke CityLast 5: 4 wins, 1 draw, no defeats
MiddlesbroughLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Stoke City won 25 of 41 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Middlesbrough won 35 of 51 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Middlesbrough won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
- Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Stoke City's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Stoke City 3, draws 3, Middlesbrough 4
Goals: Stoke City 15, Middlesbrough 13
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan 2026 | Stoke City v Middlesbrough | 1–2 |
| 30 Sep 2025 | Middlesbrough v Stoke City | 0–0 |
| 25 Feb 2025 | Stoke City v Middlesbrough | 1–3 |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Middlesbrough v Stoke City | 2–0 |
| 27 Aug 2024 | Middlesbrough v Stoke CityLeague Cup | 0–5 |
| 2 Mar 2024 | Stoke City v Middlesbrough | 2–0 |
| 28 Oct 2023 | Middlesbrough v Stoke City | 0–2 |
| 14 Mar 2023 | Middlesbrough v Stoke City | 1–1 |
| 17 Aug 2022 | Stoke City v Middlesbrough | 2–2 |
| 30 Apr 2022 | Middlesbrough v Stoke City | 3–1 |
Home and away
Stoke CityStoke City at home
Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
- WonSheffield Utd19 Sep 20262–1
- WonCharlton5 Sep 20264–0
- WonNorwich1 Sep 20261–0
- DrawnHull CityLeague Cup25 Aug 20261–1 PEN
- LostSwansea15 Aug 20261–2
Stoke City: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 19 scored, 14 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough away
Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- DrawnBirmingham19 Sep 20262–2
- LostCrystal PalaceLeague Cup8 Sep 20260–3
- WonQPR5 Sep 20261–0
- DrawnBurnley2 Sep 20261–1
- WonDoncasterLeague Cup25 Aug 20263–1
Middlesbrough: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 13 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Stoke City- Last match
- 3 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Bolton · Championship
- Next match
- 4 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Derby · Championship
Middlesbrough- Last match
- 3 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Wolves · Championship
- Next match
- 4 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Cardiff · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Stoke City
| Score | Stoke City | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 25 won, 9 drawn, 7 lost in 41 matches | 1098 won, 344 drawn, 212 lost in 1654 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 6 drawn, 31 lost in 41 matches | 212 won, 344 drawn, 1098 lost in 1654 matches |
| Level at half-time | 11 won, 14 drawn, 18 lost in 43 matches | 452 won, 574 drawn, 452 lost in 1478 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 18 drawn, 12 lost in 36 matches | 337 won, 578 drawn, 337 lost in 1252 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 21 drawn, 10 lost in 38 matches | 272 won, 626 drawn, 272 lost in 1170 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 2 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches | 43 won, 148 drawn, 558 lost in 749 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 5 won, 21 drawn, 8 lost in 34 matches | 170 won, 698 drawn, 170 lost in 1038 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 21 won, 21 drawn, 22 lost in 64 matches | 906 won, 730 drawn, 906 lost in 2542 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 16 won, 16 drawn, 20 lost in 52 matches | 643 won, 624 drawn, 643 lost in 1910 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Stoke City | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 18 scored, 31 conceded (92) | 1022 scored, 1022 conceded (3556) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 9 conceded (26) | 338 scored, 367 conceded (1236) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 11 conceded (34) | 317 scored, 317 conceded (1084) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 11 conceded (32) | 367 scored, 338 conceded (1236) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 17(league sides: 1,862 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 825)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Middlesbrough
| Score | Middlesbrough | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 35 won, 10 drawn, 6 lost in 51 matches | 1098 won, 344 drawn, 212 lost in 1654 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 9 drawn, 21 lost in 36 matches | 212 won, 344 drawn, 1098 lost in 1654 matches |
| Level at half-time | 11 won, 16 drawn, 8 lost in 35 matches | 452 won, 574 drawn, 452 lost in 1478 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 4 won, 6 drawn, 12 lost in 22 matches | 94 won, 163 drawn, 500 lost in 757 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 19 drawn, 13 lost in 38 matches | 337 won, 578 drawn, 337 lost in 1252 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 36 matches | 272 won, 626 drawn, 272 lost in 1170 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 20 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches | 635 won, 116 drawn, 17 lost in 768 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 6 won, 23 drawn, 8 lost in 37 matches | 170 won, 698 drawn, 170 lost in 1038 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 27 won, 19 drawn, 19 lost in 65 matches | 906 won, 730 drawn, 906 lost in 2542 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 17 won, 3 drawn, 5 lost in 25 matches | 432 won, 145 drawn, 105 lost in 682 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 17 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 46 matches | 643 won, 624 drawn, 643 lost in 1910 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Middlesbrough | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 29 scored, 28 conceded (95) | 1022 scored, 1022 conceded (3556) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 10 conceded (36) | 338 scored, 367 conceded (1236) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 12 conceded (37) | 317 scored, 317 conceded (1084) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 6 conceded (22) | 367 scored, 338 conceded (1236) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 41 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 24(league sides: 1,862 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 825)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Stoke City | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|
| 92 | Matches with xG | 94 |
| 100.08 | xG for | 139.76 |
| 101 | Goals scored | 143 |
| 136.47 | xG against | 101.89 |
| 119 | Goals conceded | 109 |
Stoke City
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Bolton | 0.74 | 3.13 | 2–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Sheffield Utd | 0.65 | 0.36 | 2–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Watford | 1.50 | 0.39 | 2–1 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | at Cardiff | 0.75 | 2.92 | 1–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Charlton | 2.14 | 0.61 | 4–0 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | v Norwich | 0.58 | 1.44 | 1–0 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Wolves | 0.83 | 2.66 | 1–4 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Southampton | 0.93 | 2.32 | 1–3 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v Swansea | 0.65 | 0.62 | 1–2 |
| 2 May 2026 | at Bristol City | 1.03 | 1.98 | 0–2 |
Middlesbrough
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Wolves | 0.90 | 0.68 | 1–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Birmingham | 2.14 | 1.23 | 2–2 |
| 15 Sep 2026 | v Millwall | 1.52 | 1.69 | 2–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Norwich | 2.38 | 1.76 | 4–3 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at QPR | 2.53 | 1.03 | 1–0 |
| 2 Sep 2026 | at Burnley | 1.22 | 0.64 | 1–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v West Brom | 2.55 | 1.32 | 3–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Blackburn | 1.43 | 0.91 | 1–2 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v Lincoln | 2.23 | 0.57 | 2–1 |
| 23 May 2026 | at Hull City | 0.78 | 0.71 | 0–1 |
Middlesbrough: 1 without xG left out
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Stoke City | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 16 | Points in those matches | 18 |
| 9.79 | xPts | 16.83 |
| 8.77 | xG for | 16.90 |
| 14.45 | xG against | 9.83 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Stoke City and Middlesbrough
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- A. Ampah (Inactive) · A. Cresswell (Knee Injury) · S. Gallagher (Inactive) · S. Ingelsson (Muscle Injury) · M. Talovierov (Red Card)
- Ruled out
- A. Jones (Calf Injury) · R. Pukstas (Inactive) · D. Strelec (Inactive)
Published 13 Oct 2026, 18:57 BST · not changed since
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