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Championship
Stoke City
2–0Finished
Preston
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 12:30 GMTMatchday 13 · bet365 Stadium, Stoke-On-Trent

Stoke City v Preston match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Stoke City are slight favourites according to the model, which gives them a 52% chance of winning. Expected goals stand at 1.59 for Stoke and 0.97 for Preston, a gap of 0.62 in the home side's favour. Stoke have won two of their last five matches, while Preston have drawn one and lost four of theirs.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 52%Stoke City win
  • 27%Draw
  • 21%Preston win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Stoke CityStoke City

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

  1. drew0–0v Bristol City
  2. won1–0at Derby
  3. lost2–3v Middlesbrough
  4. won2–1at Bolton
  5. won2–1v Sheffield Utd
PrestonPreston

Last 5: no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats

  1. drew1–1v West Brom
  2. lost1–4at Wrexham
  3. lost0–4at Birmingham
  4. lost0–1v Millwall
  5. drew2–2at QPR

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Stoke City won 26 of 41 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Preston won 19 of 40 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Preston won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Preston without a win in their last 5 away games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Stoke City 2, draws 4, Preston 4

Goals: Stoke City 8, Preston 11

DateMatchScore
20 Mar 2026Preston v Stoke City3–1
26 Dec 2025Stoke City v Preston0–0
5 Apr 2025Preston v Stoke City1–1
26 Nov 2024Stoke City v Preston0–0
9 Mar 2024Preston v Stoke City1–2
2 Sep 2023Stoke City v Preston0–2
2 Jan 2023Stoke City v Preston0–1
15 Oct 2022Preston v Stoke City0–2
3 Jan 2022Stoke City v Preston1–2
28 Sep 2021Preston v Stoke City1–1

Home and away

Stoke City

Stoke City at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • DrawnBristol City24 Oct 20260–0
  • LostMiddlesbrough13 Oct 20262–3
  • WonSheffield Utd19 Sep 20262–1
  • WonCharlton5 Sep 20264–0
  • WonNorwich1 Sep 20261–0

Stoke City: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Preston

Preston away

Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostWrexham17 Oct 20261–4
  • LostBirmingham13 Oct 20260–4
  • DrawnQPR19 Sep 20262–2
  • LostWatford8 Sep 20261–2
  • LostCharlton29 Aug 20260–1

Preston: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 22 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
9 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Stoke City
Last match
7 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Bristol City · Championship
Next match
3 days after3 Nov 2026 · v Blackburn · Championship
Preston
Last match
7 days before24 Oct 2026 · v West Brom · Championship
Next match
3 days after3 Nov 2026 · v Sheffield Utd · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 2 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Stoke City

ScoreStoke CityLeague sides
Scored first26 won, 8 drawn, 7 lost in 41 matches1122 won, 350 drawn, 218 lost in 1690 matches
Conceded first4 won, 5 drawn, 31 lost in 40 matches218 won, 350 drawn, 1122 lost in 1690 matches
Level at half-time12 won, 14 drawn, 19 lost in 45 matches463 won, 582 drawn, 463 lost in 1508 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 17 drawn, 13 lost in 36 matches343 won, 586 drawn, 343 lost in 1272 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 20 drawn, 11 lost in 38 matches278 won, 634 drawn, 278 lost in 1190 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 2 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches45 won, 152 drawn, 570 lost in 767 matches
Level after 80 minutes5 won, 20 drawn, 8 lost in 33 matches175 won, 706 drawn, 175 lost in 1056 matches
Level after 15 minutes22 won, 21 drawn, 23 lost in 66 matches928 won, 744 drawn, 928 lost in 2600 matches
Level after 30 minutes17 won, 16 drawn, 21 lost in 54 matches661 won, 636 drawn, 661 lost in 1958 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreStoke CityLeague sides
All matches19 scored, 32 conceded (92)1050 scored, 1050 conceded (3632)
When leading after 75 minutes6 scored, 9 conceded (27)350 scored, 377 conceded (1266)
When level after 75 minutes7 scored, 11 conceded (33)323 scored, 323 conceded (1100)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 12 conceded (32)377 scored, 350 conceded (1266)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 18(league sides: 1,903 times, within 15 minutes 325, by full time 842)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Preston

ScorePrestonLeague sides
Scored first19 won, 17 drawn, 4 lost in 40 matches1122 won, 350 drawn, 218 lost in 1690 matches
Conceded first4 won, 8 drawn, 33 lost in 45 matches218 won, 350 drawn, 1122 lost in 1690 matches
1 goal up at half-time13 won, 9 drawn, 4 lost in 26 matches512 won, 165 drawn, 95 lost in 772 matches
Level at half-time6 won, 16 drawn, 9 lost in 31 matches463 won, 582 drawn, 463 lost in 1508 matches
1 goal down at half-time2 won, 5 drawn, 15 lost in 22 matches95 won, 165 drawn, 512 lost in 772 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes13 won, 8 drawn, 2 lost in 23 matches544 won, 171 drawn, 65 lost in 780 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 19 drawn, 8 lost in 33 matches343 won, 586 drawn, 343 lost in 1272 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes0 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches65 won, 171 drawn, 544 lost in 780 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes13 won, 11 drawn, 1 lost in 25 matches570 won, 152 drawn, 45 lost in 767 matches
Level after 70 minutes4 won, 19 drawn, 7 lost in 30 matches278 won, 634 drawn, 278 lost in 1190 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes15 won, 9 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches648 won, 120 drawn, 17 lost in 785 matches
Level after 80 minutes1 won, 22 drawn, 5 lost in 28 matches175 won, 706 drawn, 175 lost in 1056 matches
Level after 15 minutes14 won, 24 drawn, 26 lost in 64 matches928 won, 744 drawn, 928 lost in 2600 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes11 won, 10 drawn, 2 lost in 23 matches439 won, 147 drawn, 108 lost in 694 matches
Level after 30 minutes8 won, 16 drawn, 20 lost in 44 matches661 won, 636 drawn, 661 lost in 1958 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScorePrestonLeague sides
All matches23 scored, 35 conceded (92)1050 scored, 1050 conceded (3632)
When leading after 75 minutes6 scored, 14 conceded (29)350 scored, 377 conceded (1266)
When level after 75 minutes8 scored, 12 conceded (32)323 scored, 323 conceded (1100)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 9 conceded (31)377 scored, 350 conceded (1266)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 11, by full time 19(league sides: 1,903 times, within 15 minutes 325, by full time 842)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 2 Nov 2024

Stoke CityPreston
92Matches with xG92
99.62xG for108.15
101Goals scored100
135.51xG against130.72
117Goals conceded129

Stoke City

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Stoke City: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026v Bristol City0.710.790–0
17 Oct 2026at Derby0.621.071–0
13 Oct 2026v Middlesbrough0.652.572–3
10 Oct 2026at Bolton0.743.132–1
19 Sep 2026v Sheffield Utd0.650.362–1
12 Sep 2026at Watford1.500.392–1
8 Sep 2026at Cardiff0.752.921–1
5 Sep 2026v Charlton2.140.614–0
1 Sep 2026v Norwich0.581.441–0
29 Aug 2026at Wolves0.832.661–4

Preston

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Preston: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026v West Brom1.832.091–1
17 Oct 2026at Wrexham0.791.971–4
13 Oct 2026at Birmingham0.492.240–4
10 Oct 2026v Millwall0.651.090–1
19 Sep 2026at QPR1.502.542–2
12 Sep 2026v Lincoln0.580.660–1
8 Sep 2026at Watford2.441.261–2
5 Sep 2026v Blackburn2.191.092–1
1 Sep 2026v Bristol City1.911.781–3
29 Aug 2026at Charlton1.320.740–1

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

Stoke CityPreston
12 of 12Matches with xG12 of 12
20Points in those matches5
12.35xPts14.78
10.75xG for15.48
18.88xG against18.10

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Stoke City and Preston

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Stoke CityStoke City
    Ruled out
    A. Ampah (Knee Injury) · E. Bocat (Injury) · A. Cresswell (Knee Injury) · S. Gallagher (Injury) · S. Ingelsson (Muscle Injury)
  • PrestonPreston
    Ruled out
    H. Clarke (Knee Injury) · L. Gibbs (Muscle Injury) · L. Gibson (Inactive) · A. McCann (Hamstring Injury)
    Doubtful
    T. Carroll (Ankle Injury) · L. Lindsay (Injury)

Published 31 Oct 2026, 11:27 GMT · not changed since

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