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Ligue 1
Strasbourg
1–3Finished
Paris Saint Germain
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 16:15 BSTMatchday 7 · Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg

Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

PSG are heavy favourites with a 57% chance of victory, arriving on a five-game winning streak. Strasbourg have won only two of their last five and face a PSG side expected to score 2.06 goals, but they have taken points from PSG recently.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 21%Strasbourg win
  • 22%Draw
  • 57%Paris Saint Germain win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

StrasbourgStrasbourg

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain

Last 5: 5 wins, no draws, no defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Ligue 1, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 180 of 231.
  • Paris Saint Germain won 6 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Paris Saint Germain unbeaten in their last 5 away games.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Strasbourg's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Strasbourg 1, draws 3, Paris Saint Germain 6

Goals: Strasbourg 16, Paris Saint Germain 25

DateMatchScore
1 Feb 2026Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain1–2
17 Oct 2025Paris Saint Germain v Strasbourg3–3
3 May 2025Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain2–1
19 Oct 2024Paris Saint Germain v Strasbourg4–2
2 Feb 2024Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain1–2
21 Oct 2023Paris Saint Germain v Strasbourg3–0
27 May 2023Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain1–1
28 Dec 2022Paris Saint Germain v Strasbourg2–1
29 Apr 2022Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain3–3
14 Aug 2021Paris Saint Germain v Strasbourg4–2

Home and away

Strasbourg

Strasbourg at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnMonaco12 Sep 20261–1
  • WonLens29 Aug 20262–1
  • WonMonaco17 May 20265–4
  • LostRayo VallecanoUEFA Europa Conference League7 May 20260–1
  • LostToulouse3 May 20261–2

Strasbourg: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10
Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain away

Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonManchester CityUEFA Champions League14 Oct 20264–2
  • WonMarseille20 Sep 20262–1
  • WonStade Brestois 2913 Sep 20261–0
  • DrawnLille28 Aug 20262–2
  • DrawnRennes23 Aug 20262–2

Paris Saint Germain: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
19 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Strasbourg
Last match
6 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Nice · Ligue 1
Next match
8 days after25 Oct 2026 · v Rennes · Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain
Last match
3 days before14 Oct 2026 · v Manchester City · UEFA Champions League
Next match
3 days after20 Oct 2026 · v Barcelona · UEFA Champions League

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

StrasbourgParis Saint Germain
67Matches with xG67
97.01xG for159.56
111Goals scored156
103.32xG against64.40
91Goals conceded66

Strasbourg

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Strasbourg: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
11 Oct 2026at Nice0.631.251–2
19 Sep 2026at Paris FC0.241.051–2
12 Sep 2026v Monaco1.021.051–1
6 Sep 2026at Estac Troyes2.952.946–2
29 Aug 2026v Lens1.832.912–1
21 Aug 2026at Marseille0.181.860–4
17 May 2026v Monaco1.501.135–4
13 May 2026at Stade Brestois 292.023.062–1
10 May 2026at Angers2.020.591–1
3 May 2026v Toulouse0.411.361–2

Paris Saint Germain

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Paris Saint Germain: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026v Le Mans4.251.433–1
20 Sep 2026at Marseille4.331.802–1
13 Sep 2026at Stade Brestois 291.161.241–0
4 Sep 2026v Monaco2.320.511–2
28 Aug 2026at Lille1.441.272–2
23 Aug 2026at Rennes2.160.872–2
17 May 2026at Paris FC0.612.201–2
13 May 2026at Lens1.222.872–0
10 May 2026v Stade Brestois 291.490.171–0
2 May 2026v Lorient2.420.962–2

This league season

Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.

StrasbourgParis Saint Germain
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
7Points in those matches11
5.33xPts12.59
6.85xG for15.66
11.06xG against7.12

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Strasbourg and Paris Saint Germain

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • StrasbourgStrasbourg
    Ruled out
    I. Doukoure (Inactive) · M. Godo (Muscle Injury) · S. Nanasi (Injury) · J. Panichelli (Knee Injury)
  • Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
    Ruled out
    A. Longoni (Injury) · S. Mayulu (Muscle Injury)

Published 17 Oct 2026, 15:12 BST · not changed since

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