LEDGER
Sign inGo PRO
Premier League
Sunderland
0–2Finished
Brighton
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 BST

Sunderland v Brighton match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 40%Sunderland win
  • 27%Draw
  • 33%Brighton win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

SunderlandSunderland

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

BrightonBrighton

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Sunderland won 22 of 32 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 184 of 263.
  • Not both teams scored in 8 of Sunderland's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

2 meetings: Sunderland 0, draws 1, Brighton 1

Goals: Sunderland 0, Brighton 1

DateMatchScore
14 Mar 2026Sunderland v Brighton0–1
20 Dec 2025Brighton v Sunderland0–0

Home and away

Sunderland

Sunderland at home

Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonAZ AlkmaarUEFA Europa League16 Sep 20261–0
  • LostArsenal12 Sep 20260–2
  • WonHull CityLeague Cup8 Sep 20261–0
  • WonFulham30 Aug 20261–0
  • WonChelsea24 May 20262–1

Sunderland: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
8 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
2 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Brighton

Brighton away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonManchester UnitedLeague Cup16 Sep 20263–2
  • WonCoventry13 Sep 20265–0
  • LostChelsea30 Aug 20263–4
  • DrawnTromsoUEFA Europa Conference League20 Aug 20260–0
  • LostLeeds17 May 20260–1

Brighton: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Sunderland
Last match
20 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Manchester City · Premier League
Next match
5 days after15 Oct 2026 · v Torreense · UEFA Europa League
Brighton
Last match
21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Arsenal · Premier League
Next match
5 days after15 Oct 2026 · v Kauno Žalgiris · UEFA Europa Conference League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 20 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Sunderland

ScoreSunderlandLeague sides
Scored first22 won, 8 drawn, 2 lost in 32 matches730 won, 236 drawn, 165 lost in 1131 matches
Conceded first11 won, 8 drawn, 24 lost in 43 matches165 won, 236 drawn, 730 lost in 1131 matches
Level at half-time15 won, 16 drawn, 11 lost in 42 matches295 won, 320 drawn, 295 lost in 910 matches
Level after 60 minutes18 won, 18 drawn, 7 lost in 43 matches207 won, 316 drawn, 207 lost in 730 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes16 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches341 won, 112 drawn, 36 lost in 489 matches
Level after 70 minutes12 won, 15 drawn, 6 lost in 33 matches163 won, 350 drawn, 163 lost in 676 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes21 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches347 won, 98 drawn, 21 lost in 466 matches
Level after 80 minutes7 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 27 matches124 won, 384 drawn, 124 lost in 632 matches
Level after 15 minutes24 won, 22 drawn, 23 lost in 69 matches606 won, 448 drawn, 606 lost in 1660 matches
Level after 30 minutes16 won, 16 drawn, 16 lost in 48 matches420 won, 378 drawn, 420 lost in 1218 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreSunderlandLeague sides
All matches23 scored, 21 conceded (84)861 scored, 861 conceded (2380)
When leading after 75 minutes2 scored, 7 conceded (30)308 scored, 323 conceded (868)
When level after 75 minutes10 scored, 7 conceded (28)230 scored, 230 conceded (644)
When trailing after 75 minutes11 scored, 7 conceded (26)323 scored, 308 conceded (868)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 43 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 25(league sides: 1,341 times, within 15 minutes 226, by full time 643)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

SunderlandBrighton
82Since 20 Oct 2024Matches with xG74Since 19 Oct 2024
95.97xG for117.37
92Goals scored121
104.18xG against101.36
96Goals conceded100

Sunderland

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Sunderland: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026at Manchester City3.572.823–5
12 Sep 2026v Arsenal1.801.880–2
5 Sep 2026at Brentford1.711.211–1
30 Aug 2026v Fulham2.020.951–0
22 Aug 2026at Ipswich0.661.801–2
24 May 2026v Chelsea1.840.892–1
17 May 2026at Everton0.761.043–1
9 May 2026v Manchester United1.250.620–0
2 May 2026at Wolves0.661.721–1
24 Apr 2026v Nottingham Forest0.701.100–5

Brighton

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Brighton: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026v Arsenal1.311.633–0
13 Sep 2026at Coventry2.811.335–0
5 Sep 2026v Leeds2.192.491–1
30 Aug 2026at Chelsea1.412.933–4
23 Aug 2026v Aston Villa3.770.294–0
24 May 2026v Manchester United0.791.660–3
17 May 2026at Leeds3.060.390–1
9 May 2026v Wolves1.620.493–0
2 May 2026at Newcastle1.533.161–3
21 Apr 2026v Chelsea2.140.373–0

Sunderland: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

SunderlandBrighton
5 of 5Matches with xG5 of 5
4Points in those matches10
7.51xPts8.14
9.76xG for11.49
8.66xG against8.67

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Sunderland and Brighton

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • SunderlandSunderlandD. Ballard (Muscle Injury) · B. Brobbey (Muscle Injury) · H. Diarra (Hamstring Injury) · R. Mundle (Knee Injury)
  • BrightonBrightonF. Azeez (Abdominal strain) · E. Ferguson (Ankle Injury) · Y. Minteh (Injury) · K. Mitoma (Hamstring Injury)

Published 10 Oct 2026, 13:58 BST · not changed since

All fixtures