LEDGER
Sign inGo PRO
Bundesliga
SV Elversberg
4–3Finished
FC Augsburg
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:30 BSTMatchday 6

SV Elversberg v FC Augsburg match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Elversberg start as slight favorites over Augsburg in this Bundesliga clash, though the model sees a competitive match. Both teams have won their last two games but show mixed form across their recent outings.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 43%SV Elversberg win
  • 26%Draw
  • 31%FC Augsburg win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

SV ElversbergSV Elversberg

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

FC AugsburgFC Augsburg

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

Head-to-head

Head-to-head data was not available for this match.

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Bundesliga, since 18 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 148 of 197.
  • FC Augsburg won 17 of 33 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 9 of SV Elversberg's last 10 home league games.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of FC Augsburg's last 10 away league games.

Home and away

SV Elversberg

SV Elversberg at home

Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostBayern München13 Sep 20261–2
  • WonBayer Leverkusen29 Aug 20263–2
  • WonPreußen Münster2. Bundesliga17 May 20263–0
  • WonSC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga3 May 20265–1
  • WonKarlsruher SC2. Bundesliga17 Apr 20263–0

SV Elversberg: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
23 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
9 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
FC Augsburg

FC Augsburg away

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostWerder Bremen19 Sep 20262–3
  • WonEintracht Frankfurt6 Sep 20264–1
  • WonEnergie CottbusDFB Pokal22 Aug 20262–0
  • LostUnion Berlin16 May 20260–4
  • WonWerder Bremen2 May 20263–1

FC Augsburg: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

SV Elversberg
Last match
7 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Union Berlin · Bundesliga
Next match
7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v RB Leipzig · Bundesliga
FC Augsburg
Last match
7 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Bayern München · Bundesliga
Next match
7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Union Berlin · Bundesliga

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

FC Augsburg

ScoreFC AugsburgLeague sides
Scored first17 won, 9 drawn, 7 lost in 33 matches599 won, 195 drawn, 125 lost in 919 matches
Conceded first6 won, 3 drawn, 19 lost in 28 matches125 won, 195 drawn, 599 lost in 919 matches
Level at half-time8 won, 11 drawn, 7 lost in 26 matches200 won, 286 drawn, 200 lost in 686 matches
Level after 60 minutes5 won, 10 drawn, 5 lost in 20 matches151 won, 284 drawn, 151 lost in 586 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 14 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches72 won, 334 drawn, 72 lost in 478 matches
Level after 15 minutes17 won, 16 drawn, 15 lost in 48 matches483 won, 354 drawn, 483 lost in 1320 matches
Level after 30 minutes12 won, 13 drawn, 9 lost in 34 matches317 won, 308 drawn, 317 lost in 942 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreFC AugsburgLeague sides
All matches17 scored, 23 conceded (67)700 scored, 700 conceded (1940)
When leading after 75 minutes5 scored, 11 conceded (24)295 scored, 262 conceded (728)
When level after 75 minutes5 scored, 3 conceded (20)143 scored, 143 conceded (484)
When trailing after 75 minutes7 scored, 9 conceded (23)262 scored, 295 conceded (728)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 31 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 10(league sides: 1,114 times, within 15 minutes 192, by full time 508)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

SV ElversbergFC Augsburg
—Matches with xG67
—xG for81.41
—Goals scored84
—xG against118.43
—Goals conceded105

FC Augsburg

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
FC Augsburg: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026v Bayern München2.374.962–2
19 Sep 2026at Werder Bremen1.122.782–3
12 Sep 2026v Bayer Leverkusen1.112.642–2
6 Sep 2026at Eintracht Frankfurt1.132.224–1
30 Aug 2026v FC Schalke 043.722.103–0
16 May 2026at Union Berlin0.613.680–4
9 May 2026v Borussia Mönchengladbach2.591.143–1
2 May 2026at Werder Bremen2.571.353–1
25 Apr 2026v Eintracht Frankfurt2.001.111–1
18 Apr 2026at Bayer Leverkusen1.333.802–1

This league season

Bundesliga matches since 28 Aug 2026.

SV ElversbergFC Augsburg
5 of 5Matches with xG5 of 5
7Points in those matches8
4.72xPts4.49
5.77xG for9.45
9.21xG against14.70

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: SV Elversberg and FC Augsburg

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • SV ElversbergSV Elversberg
    Ruled out
    C. Campbell (Ankle Injury) · L. Seifert (Ankle Injury)
    Doubtful
    J. Gyamerah (Groin Injury) · F. Onyeka (Foot Injury)
  • FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
    Ruled out
    N. Banks (Knee Injury) · A. Claude-Maurice (Muscle Injury) · S. Mounie (Injury) · S. Suso (Inactive)

Published 17 Oct 2026, 13:27 BST · not changed since

All fixtures