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Championship
Swansea
4–0Finished
Blackburn
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 GMTMatchday 13 · Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea

Swansea v Blackburn match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Swansea are favoured at home with a 44% chance of winning versus 29% for a draw and 27% for a Blackburn away victory. Expected goals stand at 2.42 with Swansea likely to hold a 0.32-goal advantage. Swansea have won three of their last five matches, while Blackburn have drawn one of five; both sides have faced each other twice recently with Swansea winning both.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 44%Swansea win
  • 29%Draw
  • 27%Blackburn win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

SwanseaSwansea

Last 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats

  1. lost0–5at QPR
  2. lost0–1v West Ham
  3. won1–0at Millwall
  4. won2–1v Norwich
  5. won2–1at Lincoln
BlackburnBlackburn

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

  1. won2–0v Wrexham
  2. lost2–3at West Brom
  3. won1–0at Bristol City
  4. won2–1v Cardiff
  5. drew2–2at Portsmouth

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Swansea won 33 of 44 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Blackburn won 28 of 43 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Swansea won 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Swansea 6, draws 0, Blackburn 4

Goals: Swansea 13, Blackburn 10

DateMatchScore
20 Jan 2026Swansea v Blackburn3–1
30 Sep 2025Blackburn v Swansea1–2
22 Feb 2025Swansea v Blackburn3–0
19 Oct 2024Blackburn v Swansea1–0
2 Mar 2024Swansea v Blackburn2–1
28 Oct 2023Blackburn v Swansea0–1
18 Feb 2023Blackburn v Swansea1–0
6 Aug 2022Swansea v Blackburn0–3
5 Feb 2022Swansea v Blackburn1–0
7 Aug 2021Blackburn v Swansea2–1

Home and away

Swansea

Swansea at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostWest Ham17 Oct 20260–1
  • WonNorwich10 Oct 20262–1
  • WonBurnley12 Sep 20263–1
  • DrawnWrexham5 Sep 20260–0
  • WonWatford1 Sep 20262–0

Swansea: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Blackburn

Blackburn away

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostWest Brom17 Oct 20262–3
  • WonBristol City13 Oct 20261–0
  • DrawnPortsmouth19 Sep 20262–2
  • LostPreston5 Sep 20261–2
  • DrawnLincoln1 Sep 20260–0

Blackburn: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Swansea
Last match
7 days before24 Oct 2026 · v QPR · Championship
Next match
3 days after3 Nov 2026 · v Portsmouth · Championship
Blackburn
Last match
7 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Wrexham · Championship
Next match
3 days after3 Nov 2026 · v Stoke City · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 2 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Swansea

ScoreSwanseaLeague sides
Scored first33 won, 5 drawn, 6 lost in 44 matches1122 won, 350 drawn, 218 lost in 1690 matches
Conceded first6 won, 9 drawn, 29 lost in 44 matches218 won, 350 drawn, 1122 lost in 1690 matches
Level at half-time18 won, 11 drawn, 8 lost in 37 matches463 won, 582 drawn, 463 lost in 1508 matches
1 goal down at half-time3 won, 5 drawn, 13 lost in 21 matches95 won, 165 drawn, 512 lost in 772 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes18 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches544 won, 171 drawn, 65 lost in 780 matches
Level after 60 minutes10 won, 7 drawn, 10 lost in 27 matches343 won, 586 drawn, 343 lost in 1272 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches65 won, 171 drawn, 544 lost in 780 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes21 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 26 matches570 won, 152 drawn, 45 lost in 767 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 26 matches278 won, 634 drawn, 278 lost in 1190 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes23 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches648 won, 120 drawn, 17 lost in 785 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 21 matches175 won, 706 drawn, 175 lost in 1056 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches17 won, 120 drawn, 648 lost in 785 matches
Level after 15 minutes27 won, 15 drawn, 24 lost in 66 matches928 won, 744 drawn, 928 lost in 2600 matches
Level after 30 minutes20 won, 11 drawn, 18 lost in 49 matches661 won, 636 drawn, 661 lost in 1958 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreSwanseaLeague sides
All matches25 scored, 28 conceded (92)1050 scored, 1050 conceded (3632)
When leading after 75 minutes10 scored, 6 conceded (36)350 scored, 377 conceded (1266)
When level after 75 minutes7 scored, 10 conceded (24)323 scored, 323 conceded (1100)
When trailing after 75 minutes8 scored, 12 conceded (32)377 scored, 350 conceded (1266)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 49 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 22(league sides: 1,903 times, within 15 minutes 325, by full time 842)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Blackburn

ScoreBlackburnLeague sides
Scored first28 won, 6 drawn, 9 lost in 43 matches1122 won, 350 drawn, 218 lost in 1690 matches
Conceded first4 won, 10 drawn, 30 lost in 44 matches218 won, 350 drawn, 1122 lost in 1690 matches
1 goal up at half-time14 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost in 21 matches512 won, 165 drawn, 95 lost in 772 matches
Level at half-time12 won, 15 drawn, 16 lost in 43 matches463 won, 582 drawn, 463 lost in 1508 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes16 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost in 23 matches544 won, 171 drawn, 65 lost in 780 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 12 drawn, 14 lost in 33 matches343 won, 586 drawn, 343 lost in 1272 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes2 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 21 matches65 won, 171 drawn, 544 lost in 780 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes18 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches570 won, 152 drawn, 45 lost in 767 matches
Level after 70 minutes3 won, 12 drawn, 12 lost in 27 matches278 won, 634 drawn, 278 lost in 1190 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes2 won, 5 drawn, 16 lost in 23 matches45 won, 152 drawn, 570 lost in 767 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes17 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches648 won, 120 drawn, 17 lost in 785 matches
Level after 80 minutes3 won, 14 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches175 won, 706 drawn, 175 lost in 1056 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 3 drawn, 24 lost in 27 matches17 won, 120 drawn, 648 lost in 785 matches
Level after 15 minutes27 won, 19 drawn, 28 lost in 74 matches928 won, 744 drawn, 928 lost in 2600 matches
Level after 30 minutes20 won, 16 drawn, 22 lost in 58 matches661 won, 636 drawn, 661 lost in 1958 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBlackburnLeague sides
All matches21 scored, 28 conceded (92)1050 scored, 1050 conceded (3632)
When leading after 75 minutes6 scored, 6 conceded (32)350 scored, 377 conceded (1266)
When level after 75 minutes6 scored, 13 conceded (24)323 scored, 323 conceded (1100)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 9 conceded (36)377 scored, 350 conceded (1266)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 45 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 16(league sides: 1,903 times, within 15 minutes 325, by full time 842)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 2 Nov 2024

SwanseaBlackburn
92Matches with xG92
113.43xG for106.30
116Goals scored98
115.51xG against117.13
120Goals conceded108

Swansea

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Swansea: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026at QPR0.273.300–5
17 Oct 2026v West Ham1.081.210–1
13 Oct 2026at Millwall1.821.051–0
10 Oct 2026v Norwich2.360.682–1
19 Sep 2026at Lincoln0.922.112–1
12 Sep 2026v Burnley2.631.733–1
8 Sep 2026at Southampton1.221.441–3
5 Sep 2026v Wrexham0.740.670–0
1 Sep 2026v Watford2.710.882–0
29 Aug 2026at Derby3.000.703–0

Blackburn

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Blackburn: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026v Wrexham1.611.742–0
17 Oct 2026at West Brom0.843.722–3
13 Oct 2026at Bristol City0.151.951–0
10 Oct 2026v Cardiff2.421.052–1
19 Sep 2026at Portsmouth0.591.602–2
12 Sep 2026v Millwall1.231.673–1
8 Sep 2026v Sheffield Utd1.600.471–2
5 Sep 2026at Preston1.092.191–2
1 Sep 2026at Lincoln0.241.460–0
29 Aug 2026v QPR0.921.341–2

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

SwanseaBlackburn
12 of 12Matches with xG12 of 12
23Points in those matches18
17.80xPts11.71
17.94xG for12.42
15.88xG against20.66

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Swansea and Blackburn

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • SwanseaSwansea
    Ruled out
    C. Burgess (Achilles Tendon Injury) · Ronald (Hamstring Injury) · M. K. Yeo (Injury)
  • BlackburnBlackburn
    Ruled out
    A. Forshaw (Hip Injury) · M. Litherland (Muscle Injury) · L. Miller (Achilles Tendon Injury) · S. Morsy (Yellow Cards)
    Doubtful
    R. Morishita (Injury)

Published 31 Oct 2026, 13:58 GMT · not changed since

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