Swansea v Norwich match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 41%Swansea win
- 26%Draw
- 33%Norwich win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
SwanseaLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
NorwichLast 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Swansea won 32 of 43 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Norwich won 26 of 46 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Swansea won 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
8 meetings: Swansea 4, draws 2, Norwich 2
Goals: Swansea 12, Norwich 11
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Norwich v Swansea | 1–1 |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Swansea v Norwich | 2–1 |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Norwich v Swansea | 5–1 |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Swansea v Norwich | 1–0 |
| 27 Apr 2024 | Norwich v Swansea | 2–2 |
| 4 Oct 2023 | Swansea v Norwich | 2–1 |
| 22 Apr 2023 | Norwich v Swansea | 0–3 |
| 10 Dec 2022 | Swansea v Norwich | 0–1 |
Home and away
SwanseaSwansea at home
Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- WonBurnley12 Sep 20263–1
- DrawnWrexham5 Sep 20260–0
- WonWatford1 Sep 20262–0
- DrawnSheffield Utd22 Aug 20260–0
- LostBirminghamLeague Cup8 Aug 20260–1
Swansea: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 14 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
NorwichNorwich away
Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost
- LostManchester CityLeague Cup17 Sep 20260–5
- LostMiddlesbrough12 Sep 20263–4
- WonSheffield Utd5 Sep 20263–1
- LostStoke City1 Sep 20260–1
- WonCardiffLeague Cup25 Aug 20262–1
Norwich: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 16 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Swansea- Last match
- 21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Lincoln · Championship
- Next match
- 3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Millwall · Championship
Norwich- Last match
- 20 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Bolton · Championship
- Next match
- 4 days after14 Oct 2026 · v Southampton · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Swansea
| Score | Swansea | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 32 won, 5 drawn, 6 lost in 43 matches | 1090 won, 342 drawn, 211 lost in 1643 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 9 drawn, 29 lost in 43 matches | 211 won, 342 drawn, 1090 lost in 1643 matches |
| Level at half-time | 17 won, 12 drawn, 9 lost in 38 matches | 450 won, 572 drawn, 450 lost in 1472 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 2 won, 5 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches | 93 won, 162 drawn, 496 lost in 751 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 17 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 23 matches | 525 won, 167 drawn, 64 lost in 756 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 9 won, 8 drawn, 11 lost in 28 matches | 336 won, 576 drawn, 336 lost in 1248 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches | 64 won, 167 drawn, 525 lost in 756 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 20 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 25 matches | 553 won, 147 drawn, 43 lost in 743 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 6 won, 11 drawn, 10 lost in 27 matches | 271 won, 624 drawn, 271 lost in 1166 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 22 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches | 629 won, 115 drawn, 17 lost in 761 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 3 won, 13 drawn, 6 lost in 22 matches | 170 won, 696 drawn, 170 lost in 1036 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches | 17 won, 115 drawn, 629 lost in 761 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 25 won, 16 drawn, 24 lost in 65 matches | 898 won, 730 drawn, 898 lost in 2526 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 19 won, 12 drawn, 18 lost in 49 matches | 638 won, 622 drawn, 638 lost in 1898 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Swansea | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 24 scored, 28 conceded (91) | 1017 scored, 1017 conceded (3534) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 6 conceded (35) | 336 scored, 365 conceded (1227) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 11 conceded (25) | 316 scored, 316 conceded (1080) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 11 conceded (31) | 365 scored, 336 conceded (1227) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 21(league sides: 1,851 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 822)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Norwich
| Score | Norwich | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 26 won, 10 drawn, 10 lost in 46 matches | 1090 won, 342 drawn, 211 lost in 1643 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 7 drawn, 29 lost in 42 matches | 211 won, 342 drawn, 1090 lost in 1643 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 11 drawn, 12 lost in 33 matches | 450 won, 572 drawn, 450 lost in 1472 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 9 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost in 29 matches | 336 won, 576 drawn, 336 lost in 1248 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 3 won, 5 drawn, 13 lost in 21 matches | 64 won, 167 drawn, 525 lost in 756 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 15 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches | 553 won, 147 drawn, 43 lost in 743 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 6 won, 13 drawn, 9 lost in 28 matches | 271 won, 624 drawn, 271 lost in 1166 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 3 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 21 matches | 170 won, 696 drawn, 170 lost in 1036 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 1 won, 2 drawn, 20 lost in 23 matches | 17 won, 115 drawn, 629 lost in 761 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 22 won, 15 drawn, 24 lost in 61 matches | 898 won, 730 drawn, 898 lost in 2526 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 19 won, 13 drawn, 14 lost in 46 matches | 638 won, 622 drawn, 638 lost in 1898 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 3 won, 2 drawn, 15 lost in 20 matches | 104 won, 144 drawn, 430 lost in 678 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Norwich | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 30 scored, 25 conceded (91) | 1017 scored, 1017 conceded (3534) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 11 conceded (32) | 336 scored, 365 conceded (1227) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 9 conceded (24) | 316 scored, 316 conceded (1080) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 5 conceded (35) | 365 scored, 336 conceded (1227) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 51 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 20(league sides: 1,851 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 822)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Swansea | Norwich | |
|---|---|---|
| 91 | Matches with xG | 91 |
| 111.80 | xG for | 123.52 |
| 113 | Goals scored | 134 |
| 110.76 | xG against | 121.65 |
| 115 | Goals conceded | 131 |
Swansea
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Lincoln | 0.92 | 2.11 | 2–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Burnley | 2.63 | 1.73 | 3–1 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | at Southampton | 1.22 | 1.44 | 1–3 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Wrexham | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0–0 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | v Watford | 2.71 | 0.88 | 2–0 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Derby | 3.00 | 0.70 | 3–0 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Sheffield Utd | 0.57 | 1.46 | 0–0 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Stoke City | 0.62 | 0.65 | 2–1 |
| 2 May 2026 | v Charlton | 1.16 | 0.96 | 3–1 |
| 25 Apr 2026 | at Norwich | 1.20 | 1.71 | 1–1 |
Norwich
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Bolton | 0.69 | 1.10 | 3–4 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Middlesbrough | 1.76 | 2.38 | 3–4 |
| 9 Sep 2026 | v Birmingham | 1.01 | 1.63 | 2–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Sheffield Utd | 3.04 | 0.79 | 3–1 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | at Stoke City | 1.44 | 0.58 | 0–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Burnley | 2.30 | 1.38 | 4–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Millwall | 1.02 | 2.69 | 0–3 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v West Brom | 2.96 | 1.85 | 1–2 |
| 2 May 2026 | at Hull City | 0.97 | 1.82 | 1–2 |
| 25 Apr 2026 | v Swansea | 1.71 | 1.20 | 1–1 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Swansea | Norwich | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 17 | Points in those matches | 9 |
| 12.14 | xPts | 12.03 |
| 12.41 | xG for | 14.22 |
| 9.64 | xG against | 12.40 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Swansea and Norwich
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Published 10 Oct 2026, 11:27 BST · not changed since
All fixtures