Swansea v West Ham match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
West Ham are the model's favoured outcome with a 48% win probability against Swansea's 26%. The model expects 2.81 goals total, with West Ham projected to create a 0.49 goal advantage. Swansea have won four of their last five, but West Ham's attacking metrics make them stronger.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 26%Swansea win
- 26%Draw
- 48%West Ham win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
SwanseaLast 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat
West HamLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
Head-to-head
Head-to-head data was not available for this match.
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Swansea won 33 of 44 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- West Ham won 22 of 36 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Swansea unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
- West Ham unbeaten in their last 5 away games.
Home and away
SwanseaSwansea at home
Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost
- WonNorwich10 Oct 20262–1
- WonBurnley12 Sep 20263–1
- DrawnWrexham5 Sep 20260–0
- WonWatford1 Sep 20262–0
- DrawnSheffield Utd22 Aug 20260–0
Swansea: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 15 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
West HamWest Ham away
Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost
- WonLincoln14 Oct 20266–0
- DrawnMillwall19 Sep 20262–2
- WonBolton8 Sep 20263–2
- DrawnWatford29 Aug 20261–1
- WonSouthamptonLeague Cup25 Aug 20264–1
West Ham: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 16 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Swansea- Last match
- 4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Millwall · Championship
- Next match
- 7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v QPR · Championship
West Ham- Last match
- 3 days before14 Oct 2026 · v Lincoln · Championship
- Next match
- 7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Southampton · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Swansea
| Score | Swansea | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 33 won, 5 drawn, 6 lost in 44 matches | 1108 won, 345 drawn, 214 lost in 1667 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 9 drawn, 29 lost in 44 matches | 214 won, 345 drawn, 1108 lost in 1667 matches |
| Level at half-time | 18 won, 12 drawn, 9 lost in 39 matches | 457 won, 574 drawn, 457 lost in 1488 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 3 won, 5 drawn, 13 lost in 21 matches | 94 won, 164 drawn, 504 lost in 762 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 18 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches | 534 won, 169 drawn, 64 lost in 767 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 10 won, 8 drawn, 11 lost in 29 matches | 342 won, 578 drawn, 342 lost in 1262 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches | 64 won, 169 drawn, 534 lost in 767 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 21 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 26 matches | 560 won, 149 drawn, 44 lost in 753 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 11 drawn, 10 lost in 28 matches | 277 won, 626 drawn, 277 lost in 1180 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 23 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches | 640 won, 117 drawn, 17 lost in 774 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 13 drawn, 6 lost in 23 matches | 173 won, 698 drawn, 173 lost in 1044 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches | 17 won, 117 drawn, 640 lost in 774 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 27 won, 16 drawn, 24 lost in 67 matches | 917 won, 732 drawn, 917 lost in 2566 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 20 won, 12 drawn, 18 lost in 50 matches | 651 won, 626 drawn, 651 lost in 1928 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Swansea | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 25 scored, 28 conceded (93) | 1036 scored, 1036 conceded (3582) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 6 conceded (36) | 344 scored, 373 conceded (1247) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 11 conceded (26) | 319 scored, 319 conceded (1088) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 11 conceded (31) | 373 scored, 344 conceded (1247) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 22(league sides: 1,878 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 833)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
West Ham
| Score | West Ham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 22 won, 8 drawn, 6 lost in 36 matches | 1108 won, 345 drawn, 214 lost in 1667 matches |
| Conceded first | 2 won, 10 drawn, 28 lost in 40 matches | 214 won, 345 drawn, 1108 lost in 1667 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 30 matches | 457 won, 574 drawn, 457 lost in 1488 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 10 drawn, 8 lost in 24 matches | 342 won, 578 drawn, 342 lost in 1262 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 6 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 26 matches | 277 won, 626 drawn, 277 lost in 1180 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 2 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 21 matches | 173 won, 698 drawn, 173 lost in 1044 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 17 won, 16 drawn, 18 lost in 51 matches | 917 won, 732 drawn, 917 lost in 2566 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 14 won, 14 drawn, 11 lost in 39 matches | 651 won, 626 drawn, 651 lost in 1928 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 2 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches | 106 won, 145 drawn, 434 lost in 685 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | West Ham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 28 scored, 30 conceded (79) | 1036 scored, 1036 conceded (3582) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 13 scored, 11 conceded (27) | 344 scored, 373 conceded (1247) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 9 conceded (22) | 319 scored, 319 conceded (1088) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 10 conceded (30) | 373 scored, 344 conceded (1247) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 43 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 16(league sides: 1,878 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 833)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Swansea | West Ham | |
|---|---|---|
| 93 | Matches with xG | 79 |
| 115.98 | xG for | 106.01 |
| 116 | Goals scored | 111 |
| 112.49 | xG against | 121.09 |
| 116 | Goals conceded | 128 |
Swansea
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | at Millwall | 1.82 | 1.05 | 1–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Norwich | 2.36 | 0.68 | 2–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Lincoln | 0.92 | 2.11 | 2–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Burnley | 2.63 | 1.73 | 3–1 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | at Southampton | 1.22 | 1.44 | 1–3 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Wrexham | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0–0 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | v Watford | 2.71 | 0.88 | 2–0 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Derby | 3.00 | 0.70 | 3–0 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Sheffield Utd | 0.57 | 1.46 | 0–0 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Stoke City | 0.62 | 0.65 | 2–1 |
West Ham
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | at Lincoln | 3.23 | 0.39 | 6–0 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | v QPR | 1.44 | 1.27 | 1–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Millwall | 1.87 | 2.68 | 2–2 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | v Wrexham | 2.96 | 0.44 | 6–0 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | at Bolton | 2.22 | 1.56 | 3–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Derby | 3.79 | 0.11 | 3–0 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | v Wolves | 2.05 | 0.94 | 4–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Watford | 0.89 | 1.60 | 1–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Charlton | 2.84 | 0.62 | 1–2 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | at Burnley | 1.33 | 2.33 | 2–2 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Swansea | West Ham | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 of 10 | Matches with xG | 10 of 10 |
| 23 | Points in those matches | 19 |
| 16.44 | xPts | 19.08 |
| 16.59 | xG for | 22.62 |
| 11.37 | xG against | 11.94 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Swansea and West Ham
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- C. Burgess (Achilles Tendon Injury) · J. Key (Muscle Injury) · F. Lissah (Yellow Cards)
- Doubtful
- S. Eustaquio (Shoulder Injury)
- Ruled out
- K. Lamadrid (Injury)
Published 17 Oct 2026, 13:57 BST · not changed since
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