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Eredivisie
Telstar
4–2Finished
Utrecht
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 13:30 GMTMatchday 11 · Sportpark Schoonenberg, Felsen

Telstar v Utrecht match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 1 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Utrecht hold a 39% chance of victory according to the model, compared to Telstar's 35%, with a 26% draw probability. Expected goals total 3.01, with Utrecht marginally favoured in expected output. Utrecht enter with strong recent form (WDWWL) against Telstar's poor run of four defeats in five matches, though Utrecht will be without five players through injury and one more in doubt.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 35%Telstar win
  • 26%Draw
  • 39%Utrecht win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

TelstarTelstar

Last 5: no wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats

  1. lost0–2v Almere City FC
  2. lost2–3at GO Ahead Eagles
  3. lost3–4v Feyenoord
  4. drew2–2v ADO Den Haag
  5. lost0–1at AZ Alkmaar
UtrechtUtrecht

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

  1. won1–0at Kozakken Boys
  2. drew1–1v PEC Zwolle
  3. won2–1at Twente
  4. won3–1v Willem II
  5. lost0–5at Feyenoord

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Telstar won 11 of 21 matches in which they scored first, since 13 May 2025.
  • Utrecht won 30 of 41 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
  • Telstar without a win in their last 5 home games.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 9 of Telstar's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

2 meetings: Telstar 0, draws 1, Utrecht 1

Goals: Telstar 2, Utrecht 5

DateMatchScore
11 Apr 2026Utrecht v Telstar4–1
23 Nov 2025Telstar v Utrecht1–1

Home and away

Telstar

Telstar at home

Last 5: 0 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostAlmere City FCKNVB Beker27 Oct 20260–2
  • LostFeyenoord17 Oct 20263–4
  • DrawnADO Den Haag11 Oct 20262–2
  • DrawnCambuur6 Sep 20262–2
  • LostAjax30 Aug 20260–4

Telstar: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
21 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
9 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Utrecht

Utrecht away

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonKozakken BoysKNVB Beker29 Oct 20261–0
  • WonTwente18 Oct 20262–1
  • LostFeyenoord20 Sep 20260–5
  • WonExcelsior13 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnSparta Rotterdam22 Aug 20263–3

Utrecht: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 22 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
8 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Telstar
Last match
5 days before27 Oct 2026 · v Almere City FC · KNVB Beker
Next match
6 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie
Utrecht
Last match
3 days before29 Oct 2026 · v Kozakken Boys · KNVB Beker
Next match
7 days after8 Nov 2026 · v NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Telstar

Since 13 May 2025

ScoreTelstarLeague sides
Scored first11 won, 9 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches655 won, 229 drawn, 120 lost in 1004 matches
Conceded first2 won, 4 drawn, 21 lost in 27 matches120 won, 229 drawn, 655 lost in 1004 matches
Level at half-time5 won, 11 drawn, 4 lost in 20 matches233 won, 302 drawn, 233 lost in 768 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 9 drawn, 6 lost in 21 matches170 won, 290 drawn, 170 lost in 630 matches
Level after 15 minutes7 won, 13 drawn, 13 lost in 33 matches490 won, 400 drawn, 490 lost in 1380 matches
Level after 30 minutes6 won, 11 drawn, 7 lost in 24 matches342 won, 320 drawn, 342 lost in 1004 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreTelstarLeague sides
All matches16 scored, 22 conceded (51)765 scored, 765 conceded (2090)
When leading after 75 minutes6 scored, 10 conceded (20)337 scored, 243 conceded (778)
When trailing after 75 minutes7 scored, 8 conceded (21)243 scored, 337 conceded (778)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 29 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 9(league sides: 1,193 times, within 15 minutes 200, by full time 550)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Utrecht

Since 3 Nov 2024

ScoreUtrechtLeague sides
Scored first30 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost in 41 matches655 won, 229 drawn, 120 lost in 1004 matches
Conceded first6 won, 11 drawn, 23 lost in 40 matches120 won, 229 drawn, 655 lost in 1004 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 17 drawn, 6 lost in 33 matches233 won, 302 drawn, 233 lost in 768 matches
Level after 60 minutes8 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 26 matches170 won, 290 drawn, 170 lost in 630 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 13 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches123 won, 324 drawn, 123 lost in 570 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches18 won, 97 drawn, 278 lost in 393 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 6 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches4 won, 95 drawn, 310 lost in 409 matches
Level after 15 minutes29 won, 18 drawn, 15 lost in 62 matches490 won, 400 drawn, 490 lost in 1380 matches
Level after 30 minutes21 won, 13 drawn, 10 lost in 44 matches342 won, 320 drawn, 342 lost in 1004 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes4 won, 5 drawn, 13 lost in 22 matches62 won, 100 drawn, 267 lost in 429 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreUtrechtLeague sides
All matches35 scored, 32 conceded (86)765 scored, 765 conceded (2090)
When leading after 75 minutes14 scored, 12 conceded (37)337 scored, 243 conceded (778)
When trailing after 75 minutes16 scored, 11 conceded (31)243 scored, 337 conceded (778)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 27(league sides: 1,193 times, within 15 minutes 200, by full time 550)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

TelstarUtrecht
43Since 10 Aug 2025Matches with xG69Since 3 Nov 2024
61.55xG for105.89
58Goals scored120
81.68xG against96.50
76Goals conceded105

Telstar

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Telstar: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
23 Oct 2026at GO Ahead Eagles0.791.142–3
17 Oct 2026v Feyenoord1.433.833–4
11 Oct 2026v ADO Den Haag2.441.112–2
20 Sep 2026at AZ Alkmaar0.102.350–1
13 Sep 2026at Heerenveen0.711.540–0
9 Sep 2026at Twente0.522.650–1
6 Sep 2026v Cambuur2.120.982–2
30 Aug 2026v Ajax1.132.130–4
14 Aug 2026v Sparta Rotterdam1.402.541–3
8 Aug 2026at NEC Nijmegen1.662.152–1

Utrecht

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Utrecht: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026v PEC Zwolle1.660.951–1
18 Oct 2026at Twente1.251.362–1
11 Oct 2026v Willem II1.250.713–1
20 Sep 2026at Feyenoord0.583.410–5
13 Sep 2026at Excelsior1.420.612–1
5 Sep 2026v GO Ahead Eagles2.471.793–3
30 Aug 2026v PSV Eindhoven0.303.581–6
22 Aug 2026at Sparta Rotterdam1.921.733–3
15 Aug 2026v AZ Alkmaar0.912.101–4
9 Aug 2026at Groningen2.271.551–2

Telstar: 1 without xG left outUtrecht: 2 without xG left out

This league season

Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

TelstarUtrecht
10 of 10Matches with xG10 of 10
6Points in those matches12
9.59xPts12.93
12.30xG for14.03
20.42xG against17.79

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Telstar and Utrecht

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • TelstarTelstarNo injuries or suspensions reported.
  • UtrechtUtrecht
    Ruled out
    A. Engwanda (Hamstring Injury) · V. Jensen (Knee Injury) · M. Jonathans (Knee Injury) · N. Ohio (Knee Injury) · K. Paredes (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    V. Barkas (Inactive)

Published 1 Nov 2026, 12:27 GMT · not changed since

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