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Serie A
Torino
3–2Finished
Monza
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 19:45 BSTMatchday 8 · Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Turin

Torino v Monza match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 23 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Torino are slight favourites against injury-hit Monza, with the model giving them a 44% chance of winning. The hosts' expected goals advantage is marginal at 0.33, and recent form favours Torino, who have won four of their last five league games.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 44%Torino win
  • 28%Draw
  • 28%Monza win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

TorinoTorino

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

MonzaMonza

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Torino won 19 of 27 matches in which they scored first, since 25 Oct 2024.
  • Serie A, since 19 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 215 of 270.
  • Torino won 3 of the last 7 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Torino's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

7 meetings: Torino 3, draws 3, Monza 1

Goals: Torino 8, Monza 5

DateMatchScore
1 Sep 2026Torino v MonzaCoppa Italia0–1
2 Mar 2025Monza v Torino0–2
24 Nov 2024Torino v Monza1–1
30 Mar 2024Torino v Monza1–0
11 Nov 2023Monza v Torino1–1
7 May 2023Torino v Monza1–1
13 Aug 2022Monza v Torino1–2

Home and away

Torino

Torino at home

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • WonUdinese12 Oct 20262–1
  • LostAS Roma14 Sep 20260–2
  • LostMonzaCoppa Italia1 Sep 20260–1
  • LostAC Milan23 Aug 20261–2
  • WonCarrareseCoppa Italia15 Aug 20261–0

Torino: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
8 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10
Monza

Monza away

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostLazio11 Oct 20261–3
  • LostLecce13 Sep 20262–3
  • DrawnParma6 Sep 20261–1
  • WonTorinoCoppa Italia1 Sep 20261–0
  • LostInter22 Aug 20261–4

Monza: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Torino
Last match
4 days before19 Oct 2026 · v Parma · Serie A
Next match
4 days after27 Oct 2026 · v Como · Serie A
Monza
Last match
4 days before19 Oct 2026 · v Cagliari · Serie A
Next match
5 days after28 Oct 2026 · v Napoli · Serie A

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 25 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Torino

ScoreTorinoLeague sides
Scored first19 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost in 27 matches755 won, 236 drawn, 124 lost in 1115 matches
Conceded first3 won, 11 drawn, 28 lost in 42 matches124 won, 236 drawn, 755 lost in 1115 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 12 drawn, 10 lost in 33 matches319 won, 394 drawn, 319 lost in 1032 matches
1 goal down at half-time1 won, 7 drawn, 14 lost in 22 matches56 won, 121 drawn, 333 lost in 510 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 11 drawn, 6 lost in 23 matches237 won, 406 drawn, 237 lost in 880 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes3 won, 9 drawn, 15 lost in 27 matches34 won, 111 drawn, 370 lost in 515 matches
Level after 70 minutes3 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 23 matches179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 7 drawn, 15 lost in 23 matches22 won, 94 drawn, 388 lost in 504 matches
Level after 80 minutes2 won, 18 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches109 won, 486 drawn, 109 lost in 704 matches
Level after 15 minutes15 won, 19 drawn, 25 lost in 59 matches614 won, 534 drawn, 614 lost in 1762 matches
Level after 30 minutes13 won, 15 drawn, 15 lost in 43 matches448 won, 424 drawn, 448 lost in 1320 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreTorinoLeague sides
All matches19 scored, 14 conceded (75)700 scored, 700 conceded (2420)
When level after 75 minutes5 scored, 4 conceded (22)229 scored, 229 conceded (778)
When trailing after 75 minutes10 scored, 9 conceded (34)224 scored, 247 conceded (821)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 50 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 22(league sides: 1,242 times, within 15 minutes 182, by full time 550)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

TorinoMonza
75Since 25 Oct 2024Matches with xG37Since 27 Oct 2024
79.43xG for39.07
79Goals scored33
102.04xG against55.93
103Goals conceded75

Torino

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Torino: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Oct 2026at Parma1.581.613–0
12 Oct 2026v Udinese2.620.762–1
19 Sep 2026at Bologna1.140.921–1
14 Sep 2026v AS Roma0.861.850–2
5 Sep 2026at Fiorentina0.581.672–1
29 Aug 2026at Sassuolo1.261.851–2
23 Aug 2026v AC Milan1.292.151–2
24 May 2026v Juventus0.851.922–2
17 May 2026at Cagliari0.991.321–2
8 May 2026v Sassuolo3.262.242–1

Monza

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Monza: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Oct 2026v Cagliari2.102.114–0
11 Oct 2026at Lazio1.761.841–3
18 Sep 2026v Sassuolo1.511.472–1
13 Sep 2026at Lecce2.791.082–3
6 Sep 2026at Parma1.720.731–1
29 Aug 2026v Udinese1.700.982–3
22 Aug 2026at Inter1.231.051–4
24 May 2025at AC Milan0.341.490–2
18 May 2025v Empoli1.151.271–3
11 May 2025at Udinese1.601.642–1

This league season

Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.

TorinoMonza
7 of 7Matches with xG7 of 7
10Points in those matches7
8.57xPts11.91
9.33xG for12.81
10.81xG against9.26

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Torino and Monza

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • TorinoTorino
    Ruled out
    E. Ilkhan (Muscle Injury) · F. Israel (Shoulder Injury) · R. Rodriguez (Thigh Injury)
    Doubtful
    N. Fortini (Thigh Injury)
  • MonzaMonza
    Ruled out
    Y. Maye (Muscle Injury) · M. Pessina (Knee Injury) · J. Ziolkowski (Foot Injury)

Published 23 Oct 2026, 18:43 BST · not changed since

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