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Serie A
Torino
2–1Finished
Udinese
Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 19:45 BSTMatchday 6

Torino v Udinese match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Mon 12 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Torino and Udinese are closely matched according to the model, with the home side given a marginal 36% chance of victory against Udinese's 35%. Expected goals are nearly identical at 1.25 and 1.26 respectively, pointing to a tight contest with around 2.51 goals forecast.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 36%Torino win
  • 29%Draw
  • 35%Udinese win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

TorinoTorino

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

UdineseUdinese

Last 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Torino won 17 of 25 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
  • Udinese won 21 of 35 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Torino won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Torino's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Torino 5, draws 2, Udinese 3

Goals: Torino 13, Udinese 11

DateMatchScore
2 May 2026Udinese v Torino2–0
7 Jan 2026Torino v Udinese1–2
23 Apr 2025Torino v Udinese2–0
29 Dec 2024Udinese v Torino2–2
16 Mar 2024Udinese v Torino0–2
23 Dec 2023Torino v Udinese1–1
5 Feb 2023Torino v Udinese1–0
23 Oct 2022Udinese v Torino1–2
6 Feb 2022Udinese v Torino2–0
22 Nov 2021Torino v Udinese2–1

Home and away

Torino

Torino at home

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostAS Roma14 Sep 20260–2
  • LostMonzaCoppa Italia1 Sep 20260–1
  • LostAC Milan23 Aug 20261–2
  • WonCarrareseCoppa Italia15 Aug 20261–0
  • DrawnJuventus24 May 20262–2

Torino: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Udinese

Udinese away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostInter14 Sep 20263–5
  • WonMonza29 Aug 20263–2
  • LostNapoli24 May 20260–1
  • WonCagliari9 May 20262–0
  • DrawnLazio27 Apr 20263–3

Udinese: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
19 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Torino
Last match
23 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Bologna · Serie A
Next match
7 days after19 Oct 2026 · v Parma · Serie A
Udinese
Last match
23 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Cagliari · Serie A
Next match
6 days after18 Oct 2026 · v Lecce · Serie A

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Torino

Since 20 Oct 2024

ScoreTorinoLeague sides
Scored first17 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost in 25 matches744 won, 236 drawn, 123 lost in 1103 matches
Conceded first3 won, 11 drawn, 29 lost in 43 matches123 won, 236 drawn, 744 lost in 1103 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 12 drawn, 11 lost in 33 matches315 won, 394 drawn, 315 lost in 1024 matches
1 goal down at half-time1 won, 7 drawn, 14 lost in 22 matches56 won, 121 drawn, 329 lost in 506 matches
Level after 60 minutes5 won, 11 drawn, 6 lost in 22 matches235 won, 406 drawn, 235 lost in 876 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes3 won, 9 drawn, 15 lost in 27 matches34 won, 111 drawn, 367 lost in 512 matches
Level after 70 minutes3 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 23 matches179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 7 drawn, 15 lost in 23 matches22 won, 94 drawn, 385 lost in 501 matches
Level after 80 minutes2 won, 18 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches109 won, 486 drawn, 109 lost in 704 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches11 won, 84 drawn, 429 lost in 524 matches
Level after 15 minutes14 won, 19 drawn, 26 lost in 59 matches606 won, 534 drawn, 606 lost in 1746 matches
Level after 30 minutes12 won, 15 drawn, 16 lost in 43 matches442 won, 424 drawn, 442 lost in 1308 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreTorinoLeague sides
All matches19 scored, 15 conceded (74)695 scored, 695 conceded (2396)
When level after 75 minutes5 scored, 5 conceded (23)229 scored, 229 conceded (778)
When trailing after 75 minutes10 scored, 9 conceded (34)223 scored, 243 conceded (809)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 51 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 23(league sides: 1,227 times, within 15 minutes 180, by full time 547)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Udinese

Since 19 Oct 2024

ScoreUdineseLeague sides
Scored first21 won, 6 drawn, 8 lost in 35 matches744 won, 236 drawn, 123 lost in 1103 matches
Conceded first2 won, 6 drawn, 27 lost in 35 matches123 won, 236 drawn, 744 lost in 1103 matches
1 goal up at half-time11 won, 5 drawn, 6 lost in 22 matches329 won, 121 drawn, 56 lost in 506 matches
Level at half-time8 won, 8 drawn, 12 lost in 28 matches315 won, 394 drawn, 315 lost in 1024 matches
Level after 60 minutes4 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost in 24 matches235 won, 406 drawn, 235 lost in 876 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes0 won, 1 drawn, 19 lost in 20 matches34 won, 111 drawn, 367 lost in 512 matches
Level after 70 minutes1 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 22 matches179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches
Level after 80 minutes1 won, 14 drawn, 6 lost in 21 matches109 won, 486 drawn, 109 lost in 704 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 2 drawn, 20 lost in 22 matches11 won, 84 drawn, 429 lost in 524 matches
Level after 15 minutes18 won, 14 drawn, 25 lost in 57 matches606 won, 534 drawn, 606 lost in 1746 matches
Level after 30 minutes14 won, 10 drawn, 18 lost in 42 matches442 won, 424 drawn, 442 lost in 1308 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreUdineseLeague sides
All matches13 scored, 25 conceded (74)695 scored, 695 conceded (2396)
When leading after 75 minutes8 scored, 4 conceded (24)243 scored, 223 conceded (809)
When level after 75 minutes3 scored, 12 conceded (22)229 scored, 229 conceded (778)
When trailing after 75 minutes2 scored, 9 conceded (28)223 scored, 243 conceded (809)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 39 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 12(league sides: 1,227 times, within 15 minutes 180, by full time 547)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

TorinoUdinese
74Since 20 Oct 2024Matches with xG74Since 19 Oct 2024
76.67xG for81.16
76Goals scored84
101.34xG against102.56
105Goals conceded105

Torino

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Torino: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026at Bologna1.140.921–1
14 Sep 2026v AS Roma0.861.850–2
5 Sep 2026at Fiorentina0.581.672–1
29 Aug 2026at Sassuolo1.261.851–2
23 Aug 2026v AC Milan1.292.151–2
24 May 2026v Juventus0.851.922–2
17 May 2026at Cagliari0.991.321–2
8 May 2026v Sassuolo3.262.242–1
2 May 2026at Udinese0.832.000–2
26 Apr 2026v Inter2.461.602–2

Udinese

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Udinese: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026v Cagliari2.131.120–1
14 Sep 2026at Inter0.923.053–5
7 Sep 2026v Lazio0.851.831–2
29 Aug 2026at Monza0.981.703–2
22 Aug 2026v Como2.141.501–1
24 May 2026at Napoli0.371.760–1
17 May 2026v Cremonese0.350.450–1
9 May 2026at Cagliari2.471.472–0
2 May 2026v Torino2.000.832–0
27 Apr 2026at Lazio1.932.463–3

This league season

Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.

TorinoUdinese
5 of 5Matches with xG5 of 5
4Points in those matches4
4.75xPts5.79
5.13xG for7.02
8.44xG against9.20

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Torino and Udinese

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • TorinoTorino
    Ruled out
    F. Israel (Shoulder Injury) · P. Pellegri (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    C. Casadei (Rest)
  • UdineseUdinese
    Ruled out
    I. Gueye (Ankle Injury) · J. Piotrowski (Heart Problems) · N. Zaniolo (Thigh Injury)

Published 12 Oct 2026, 18:42 BST · not changed since

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