Toulouse v Estac Troyes match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 25 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Toulouse are favoured to win with a 54% chance against Troyes, who have lost five matches running. Expected goals total 2.88 with Toulouse having the stronger attacking profile. Troyes face multiple injury absences which add to their defensive vulnerabilities.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 54%Toulouse win
- 25%Draw
- 21%Estac Troyes win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
ToulouseLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
Estac TroyesLast 5: no wins, no draws, 5 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Toulouse won 21 of 28 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
- Ligue 1, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 183 of 235.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
2 meetings: Toulouse 2, draws 0, Estac Troyes 0
Goals: Toulouse 7, Estac Troyes 1
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2023 | Toulouse v Estac Troyes | 4–1 |
| 14 Aug 2022 | Estac Troyes v Toulouse | 0–3 |
Home and away
ToulouseToulouse at home
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- WonLe Havre19 Sep 20263–2
- LostLille3 Sep 20260–1
- LostLyon22 Aug 20260–2
- WonLyon10 May 20262–1
- DrawnMonaco25 Apr 20262–2
Toulouse: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 9 scored, 14 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Estac TroyesEstac Troyes away
Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost
- LostAngers19 Sep 20260–2
- LostLille13 Sep 20260–2
- WonLorient29 Aug 20262–1
- LostGrenobleLigue 29 May 20260–1
- WonSaint EtienneLigue 225 Apr 20263–0
Estac Troyes: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 11 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Toulouse- Last match
- 9 days before16 Oct 2026 · v Le Mans · Ligue 1
- Next match
- 7 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Marseille · Ligue 1
Estac Troyes- Last match
- 8 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Lens · Ligue 1
- Next match
- 6 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Le Mans · Ligue 1
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 27 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Toulouse
| Score | Toulouse | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 21 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches | 639 won, 166 drawn, 115 lost in 920 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 10 drawn, 21 lost in 34 matches | 115 won, 166 drawn, 639 lost in 920 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 8 drawn, 10 lost in 28 matches | 255 won, 276 drawn, 255 lost in 786 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 1 won, 6 drawn, 16 lost in 23 matches | 31 won, 83 drawn, 315 lost in 429 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 11 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches | 142 won, 298 drawn, 142 lost in 582 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 5 drawn, 16 lost in 22 matches | 22 won, 79 drawn, 320 lost in 421 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 1 won, 7 drawn, 19 lost in 27 matches | 8 won, 66 drawn, 320 lost in 394 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 16 won, 14 drawn, 20 lost in 50 matches | 517 won, 354 drawn, 517 lost in 1388 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 10 won, 12 drawn, 14 lost in 36 matches | 352 won, 314 drawn, 352 lost in 1018 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Toulouse | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 28 scored, 18 conceded (66) | 659 scored, 659 conceded (1978) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 13 scored, 10 conceded (29) | 222 scored, 277 conceded (710) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 41 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 20(league sides: 1,073 times, within 15 minutes 163, by full time 471)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 27 Oct 2024
| Toulouse | Estac Troyes | |
|---|---|---|
| 66 | Matches with xG | — |
| 95.21 | xG for | — |
| 96 | Goals scored | — |
| 84.13 | xG against | — |
| 89 | Goals conceded | — |
Toulouse
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2026 | at Le Mans | 1.83 | 0.98 | 3–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Monaco | 1.43 | 1.17 | 2–2 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Le Havre | 1.95 | 2.34 | 3–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Lorient | 1.63 | 0.93 | 2–2 |
| 3 Sep 2026 | v Lille | 3.46 | 1.21 | 0–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Stade Brestois 29 | 1.14 | 3.04 | 2–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Lyon | 2.77 | 0.70 | 0–2 |
| 10 May 2026 | v Lyon | 1.13 | 1.54 | 2–1 |
| 3 May 2026 | at Strasbourg | 1.36 | 0.41 | 2–1 |
| 25 Apr 2026 | v Monaco | 1.75 | 0.74 | 2–2 |
This league season
Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.
| Toulouse | Estac Troyes | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 7 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 9 | Points in those matches | 4 |
| 12.05 | xPts | 7.42 |
| 14.21 | xG for | 9.21 |
| 10.37 | xG against | 12.55 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Toulouse and Estac Troyes
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- M. Niflore (Injury) · S. Oppong (Calf Injury)
- Ruled out
- I. Boura (Hip Injury) · Y. Kone (Knee Injury) · A. Ouzenadji (Knee Injury) · Y. Titi (Leg Injury)
Published 25 Oct 2026, 15:13 GMT · not changed since
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