Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Mon 19 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
The model gives Trabzonspor a 40% chance to win this Süper Lig clash, with Beşiktaş at 33% and a draw at 27%. Expected goals are 2.83 total. Both teams will be without several players, which adds uncertainty to the match outcome.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 40%Trabzonspor win
- 27%Draw
- 33%Beşiktaş win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
TrabzonsporLast 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats
BeşiktaşLast 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Trabzonspor won 30 of 41 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
- Beşiktaş won 37 of 51 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- Trabzonspor won 3 of the last 10 meetings.
- Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Trabzonspor's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Trabzonspor 3, draws 5, Beşiktaş 2
Goals: Trabzonspor 15, Beşiktaş 13
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 9 May 2026 | Beşiktaş v Trabzonspor | 1–2 |
| 14 Dec 2025 | Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş | 3–3 |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Beşiktaş v Trabzonspor | 2–1 |
| 15 Sep 2024 | Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş | 1–1 |
| 4 Feb 2024 | Beşiktaş v Trabzonspor | 2–0 |
| 17 Sep 2023 | Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş | 3–0 |
| 16 Apr 2023 | Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş | 0–0 |
| 16 Oct 2022 | Beşiktaş v Trabzonspor | 2–2 |
| 3 Apr 2022 | Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş | 1–1 |
| 6 Nov 2021 | Beşiktaş v Trabzonspor | 1–2 |
Home and away
TrabzonsporTrabzonspor at home
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- WonGalatasaray19 Sep 20264–0
- WonGençlerbirliği S.K.6 Sep 20265–0
- WonBaşakşehir23 Aug 20262–1
- LostFerencvarosi TCUEFA Europa League20 Aug 20260–1
- LostGençlerbirliği S.K.17 May 20260–3
Trabzonspor: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 21 scored, 11 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
BeşiktaşBeşiktaş away
Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost
- Won1899 HoffenheimUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20263–2
- LostAmed20 Sep 20262–3
- WonFenerbahçe5 Sep 20262–1
- LostKauno ŽalgirisUEFA Europa League27 Aug 20260–1
- LostAlanyaspor23 Aug 20260–1
Beşiktaş: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 15 scored, 12 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Trabzonspor- Last match
- 4 days before15 Oct 2026 · v KuPS · UEFA Europa Conference League
- Next match
- 3 days after22 Oct 2026 · v Heart Of Midlothian · UEFA Europa Conference League
Beşiktaş- Last match
- 4 days before15 Oct 2026 · v 1899 Hoffenheim · UEFA Europa League
- Next match
- 3 days after22 Oct 2026 · v Crystal Palace · UEFA Europa League
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Trabzonspor
Since 26 Oct 2024
| Score | Trabzonspor | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 30 won, 5 drawn, 6 lost in 41 matches | 670 won, 198 drawn, 146 lost in 1014 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 9 drawn, 14 lost in 28 matches | 146 won, 198 drawn, 670 lost in 1014 matches |
| Level at half-time | 14 won, 5 drawn, 8 lost in 27 matches | 273 won, 326 drawn, 273 lost in 872 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 7 drawn, 8 lost in 21 matches | 199 won, 338 drawn, 199 lost in 736 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 23 won, 14 drawn, 15 lost in 52 matches | 548 won, 460 drawn, 548 lost in 1556 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 17 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 36 matches | 397 won, 356 drawn, 397 lost in 1150 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Trabzonspor | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 26 scored, 22 conceded (71) | 746 scored, 746 conceded (2198) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 8 conceded (33) | 294 scored, 260 conceded (764) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 9 conceded (21) | 260 scored, 294 conceded (764) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 38 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 23(league sides: 1,170 times, within 15 minutes 204, by full time 523)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Beşiktaş
Since 20 Oct 2024
| Score | Beşiktaş | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 37 won, 7 drawn, 7 lost in 51 matches | 670 won, 198 drawn, 146 lost in 1014 matches |
| Conceded first | 7 won, 8 drawn, 17 lost in 32 matches | 146 won, 198 drawn, 670 lost in 1014 matches |
| Level at half-time | 19 won, 10 drawn, 11 lost in 40 matches | 273 won, 326 drawn, 273 lost in 872 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 18 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches | 341 won, 100 drawn, 43 lost in 484 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 13 won, 13 drawn, 10 lost in 36 matches | 199 won, 338 drawn, 199 lost in 736 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 19 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches | 336 won, 86 drawn, 26 lost in 448 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 10 won, 14 drawn, 7 lost in 31 matches | 159 won, 380 drawn, 159 lost in 698 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 80 minutes | 20 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches | 329 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 333 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 21 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches | 357 won, 71 drawn, 11 lost in 439 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 3 won, 15 drawn, 6 lost in 24 matches | 119 won, 416 drawn, 119 lost in 654 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 32 won, 11 drawn, 17 lost in 60 matches | 548 won, 460 drawn, 548 lost in 1556 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 22 won, 8 drawn, 15 lost in 45 matches | 397 won, 356 drawn, 397 lost in 1150 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Beşiktaş | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 28 scored, 22 conceded (86) | 746 scored, 746 conceded (2198) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 7 conceded (40) | 294 scored, 260 conceded (764) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 9 conceded (27) | 192 scored, 192 conceded (670) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 36 times, equalised within 15 minutes 11, by full time 19(league sides: 1,170 times, within 15 minutes 204, by full time 523)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Trabzonspor | Beşiktaş | |
|---|---|---|
| 69Since 26 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 70Since 20 Oct 2024 |
| 105.73 | xG for | 126.66 |
| 127 | Goals scored | 119 |
| 96.26 | xG against | 71.89 |
| 83 | Goals conceded | 79 |
Trabzonspor
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Samsunspor | 2.02 | 1.66 | 3–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Galatasaray | 2.20 | 0.96 | 4–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Konyaspor | 0.83 | 1.01 | 0–1 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 3.21 | 0.86 | 5–0 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | at Amed | 0.93 | 2.69 | 1–2 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | v Başakşehir | 2.27 | 1.95 | 2–1 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Kasımpaşa | 0.85 | 1.86 | 1–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 0.57 | 1.58 | 0–3 |
| 9 May 2026 | at Beşiktaş | 0.69 | 2.22 | 2–1 |
| 2 May 2026 | v Göztepe | 0.79 | 1.54 | 1–1 |
Beşiktaş
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Kocaelispor | 2.21 | 1.65 | 2–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Amed | 2.04 | 1.54 | 2–3 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | v Erzurumspor FK | 2.29 | 0.50 | 3–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Fenerbahçe | 1.75 | 0.59 | 2–1 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | v Çorum FK | 2.97 | 0.67 | 6–2 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at Alanyaspor | 0.74 | 0.54 | 0–1 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | v Eyüpspor | 1.28 | 0.09 | 1–0 |
| 15 May 2026 | at Rizespor | 1.82 | 2.87 | 2–2 |
| 9 May 2026 | v Trabzonspor | 2.22 | 0.69 | 1–2 |
| 1 May 2026 | at Gaziantep FK | 1.46 | 1.68 | 2–0 |
This league season
Süper Lig matches since 14 Aug 2026.
| Trabzonspor | Beşiktaş | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 7 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 13 | Points in those matches | 15 |
| 10.31 | xPts | 14.56 |
| 12.31 | xG for | 13.28 |
| 10.99 | xG against | 5.58 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- A. Batagov (Knee Injury) · M. Kabasakal (Red Card) · O. Yokuslu (Knee Injury)
- Doubtful
- O. Cevikkan (Tendon Injury) · P. Onuachu (Injury)
- Ruled out
- V. Cerny (Muscle Injury) · M. Rashica (Injury)
Published 19 Oct 2026, 16:57 BST · not changed since
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