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Eredivisie
Twente
1–2Finished
Utrecht
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 19:00 BSTMatchday 9 · De Grolsch Veste, Enschede

Twente v Utrecht match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Twente are favoured to win with a 56% chance against Utrecht's 21%, though a draw is possible at 23%. Expected goals favour Twente with a gap of 0.79. Utrecht arrive depleted by injuries, while both sides show mixed recent form.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 56%Twente win
  • 23%Draw
  • 21%Utrecht win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

TwenteTwente

Last 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats

UtrechtUtrecht

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Twente won 29 of 47 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Utrecht won 30 of 41 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
  • Utrecht won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Utrecht's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Twente 3, draws 3, Utrecht 4

Goals: Twente 10, Utrecht 10

DateMatchScore
15 Mar 2026Twente v Utrecht0–2
13 Jan 2026Utrecht v TwenteKNVB Beker1–2
7 Dec 2025Utrecht v Twente1–1
11 May 2025Twente v Utrecht2–0
1 Sep 2024Utrecht v Twente2–1
18 Feb 2024Twente v Utrecht0–1
5 Nov 2023Utrecht v Twente1–1
16 Apr 2023Utrecht v Twente1–0
22 Jan 2023Twente v Utrecht2–0
22 Dec 2021Utrecht v Twente1–1

Home and away

Twente

Twente at home

Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonFC ThunUEFA Europa Conference League15 Oct 20261–0
  • WonPSV Eindhoven20 Sep 20263–2
  • WonADO Den Haag12 Sep 20262–0
  • WonTelstar9 Sep 20261–0
  • LostQarabagUEFA Europa Conference League20 Aug 20260–1

Twente: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
20 scored, 8 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Utrecht

Utrecht away

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostFeyenoord20 Sep 20260–5
  • WonExcelsior13 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnSparta Rotterdam22 Aug 20263–3
  • LostGroningen9 Aug 20261–2
  • DrawnAjax24 May 20260–0 PEN 1–1

Utrecht: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 21 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Twente
Last match
3 days before15 Oct 2026 · v FC Thun · UEFA Europa Conference League
Next match
4 days after22 Oct 2026 · v Lincoln Red Imps FC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Utrecht
Last match
7 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Willem II · Eredivisie
Next match
6 days after24 Oct 2026 · v PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Twente

Since 19 Oct 2024

ScoreTwenteLeague sides
Scored first29 won, 13 drawn, 5 lost in 47 matches645 won, 224 drawn, 119 lost in 988 matches
Conceded first5 won, 10 drawn, 15 lost in 30 matches119 won, 224 drawn, 645 lost in 988 matches
1 goal up at half-time11 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches296 won, 103 drawn, 52 lost in 451 matches
Level at half-time12 won, 15 drawn, 6 lost in 33 matches230 won, 296 drawn, 230 lost in 756 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 24 matches166 won, 286 drawn, 166 lost in 618 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes12 won, 8 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches274 won, 94 drawn, 18 lost in 386 matches
Level after 70 minutes4 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 21 matches121 won, 320 drawn, 121 lost in 562 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes14 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches305 won, 92 drawn, 4 lost in 401 matches
Level after 80 minutes3 won, 14 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches75 won, 340 drawn, 75 lost in 490 matches
Level after 15 minutes27 won, 17 drawn, 10 lost in 54 matches483 won, 392 drawn, 483 lost in 1358 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes13 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches262 won, 98 drawn, 61 lost in 421 matches
Level after 30 minutes14 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 35 matches339 won, 314 drawn, 339 lost in 992 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreTwenteLeague sides
All matches31 scored, 25 conceded (80)753 scored, 753 conceded (2058)
When leading after 75 minutes13 scored, 12 conceded (36)333 scored, 238 conceded (766)
When level after 75 minutes7 scored, 7 conceded (21)182 scored, 182 conceded (526)
When trailing after 75 minutes11 scored, 6 conceded (23)238 scored, 333 conceded (766)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 38 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 22(league sides: 1,176 times, within 15 minutes 199, by full time 542)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Utrecht

Since 20 Oct 2024

ScoreUtrechtLeague sides
Scored first30 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost in 41 matches645 won, 224 drawn, 119 lost in 988 matches
Conceded first5 won, 10 drawn, 24 lost in 39 matches119 won, 224 drawn, 645 lost in 988 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 16 drawn, 6 lost in 32 matches230 won, 296 drawn, 230 lost in 756 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 13 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches166 won, 286 drawn, 166 lost in 618 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 21 matches121 won, 320 drawn, 121 lost in 562 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches18 won, 94 drawn, 274 lost in 386 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 5 drawn, 15 lost in 20 matches4 won, 92 drawn, 305 lost in 401 matches
Level after 15 minutes28 won, 17 drawn, 15 lost in 60 matches483 won, 392 drawn, 483 lost in 1358 matches
Level after 30 minutes20 won, 12 drawn, 10 lost in 42 matches339 won, 314 drawn, 339 lost in 992 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes3 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 22 matches61 won, 98 drawn, 262 lost in 421 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreUtrechtLeague sides
All matches34 scored, 32 conceded (85)753 scored, 753 conceded (2058)
When leading after 75 minutes14 scored, 12 conceded (36)333 scored, 238 conceded (766)
When trailing after 75 minutes15 scored, 11 conceded (31)238 scored, 333 conceded (766)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 25(league sides: 1,176 times, within 15 minutes 199, by full time 542)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

TwenteUtrecht
69Since 19 Oct 2024Matches with xG69Since 20 Oct 2024
124.23xG for103.73
125Goals scored118
84.18xG against96.62
93Goals conceded105

Twente

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Twente: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026at Fortuna Sittard1.150.951–1
20 Sep 2026v PSV Eindhoven2.401.023–2
12 Sep 2026v ADO Den Haag2.810.542–0
9 Sep 2026v Telstar2.650.521–0
6 Sep 2026at Groningen2.301.482–2
30 Aug 2026at Cambuur1.760.474–1
16 Aug 2026v PEC Zwolle2.080.683–1
9 Aug 2026at Heerenveen1.780.390–1
17 May 2026at PSV Eindhoven1.412.491–5
10 May 2026v Sparta Rotterdam3.920.864–0

Utrecht

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Utrecht: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
11 Oct 2026v Willem II1.250.713–1
20 Sep 2026at Feyenoord0.583.410–5
13 Sep 2026at Excelsior1.420.612–1
5 Sep 2026v GO Ahead Eagles2.471.793–3
30 Aug 2026v PSV Eindhoven0.303.581–6
22 Aug 2026at Sparta Rotterdam1.921.733–3
15 Aug 2026v AZ Alkmaar0.912.101–4
9 Aug 2026at Groningen2.271.551–2
21 May 2026v Heerenveen2.081.263–2
17 May 2026v Fortuna Sittard2.090.482–0

Twente: 1 without xG left outUtrecht: 2 without xG left out

This league season

Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

TwenteUtrecht
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
17Points in those matches8
17.77xPts9.77
16.93xG for11.12
6.05xG against15.48

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Twente and Utrecht

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • TwenteTwente
    Ruled out
    M. Bruns (Inactive) · S. Lemkin (Muscle Injury) · L. Unnerstall (Inactive)
  • UtrechtUtrecht
    Ruled out
    A. Engwanda (Hamstring Injury) · V. Jensen (Knee Injury) · M. Jonathans (Knee Injury) · N. Ohio (Knee Injury) · A. Stepanov (Ankle Injury)
    Doubtful
    K. Paredes (Knee Injury)

Published 18 Oct 2026, 18:23 BST · not changed since

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