Udinese v AC Milan match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 25 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
AC Milan hold a 49% chance of victory against Udinese, who are winless in five games. Both teams face significant injury absences, and the model expects around 2.56 goals in total.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 24%Udinese win
- 27%Draw
- 49%AC Milan win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
UdineseLast 5: no wins, no draws, 5 defeats
AC MilanLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Udinese won 20 of 34 matches in which they scored first, since 30 Oct 2024.
- AC Milan won 34 of 46 matches in which they scored first, since 29 Oct 2024.
- AC Milan won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
- Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Udinese's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Udinese 3, draws 2, AC Milan 5
Goals: Udinese 13, AC Milan 18
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2026 | AC Milan v Udinese | 0–3 |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Udinese v AC Milan | 0–3 |
| 11 Apr 2025 | Udinese v AC Milan | 0–4 |
| 19 Oct 2024 | AC Milan v Udinese | 1–0 |
| 20 Jan 2024 | Udinese v AC Milan | 2–3 |
| 4 Nov 2023 | AC Milan v Udinese | 0–1 |
| 18 Mar 2023 | Udinese v AC Milan | 3–1 |
| 13 Aug 2022 | AC Milan v Udinese | 4–2 |
| 25 Feb 2022 | AC Milan v Udinese | 1–1 |
| 11 Dec 2021 | Udinese v AC Milan | 1–1 |
Home and away
UdineseUdinese at home
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- LostLecce18 Oct 20260–3
- LostCagliari19 Sep 20260–1
- LostLazio7 Sep 20261–2
- WonVeneziaCoppa Italia2 Sep 20262–1
- DrawnComo22 Aug 20261–1
Udinese: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 7 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 2 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
AC MilanAC Milan away
Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost
- LostBournemouthUEFA Europa League22 Oct 20260–3
- WonRed Bull SalzburgUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20264–0
- DrawnSassuolo11 Oct 20261–1
- DrawnLazio12 Sep 20262–2
- DrawnJuventus6 Sep 20261–1
AC Milan: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Udinese- Last match
- 7 days before18 Oct 2026 · v Lecce · Serie A
- Next match
- 3 days after28 Oct 2026 · v Parma · Serie A
AC Milan- Last match
- 3 days before22 Oct 2026 · v Bournemouth · UEFA Europa League
- Next match
- 3 days after28 Oct 2026 · v Bologna · Serie A
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Udinese
Since 30 Oct 2024
| Score | Udinese | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 20 won, 6 drawn, 8 lost in 34 matches | 760 won, 238 drawn, 125 lost in 1123 matches |
| Conceded first | 2 won, 6 drawn, 28 lost in 36 matches | 125 won, 238 drawn, 760 lost in 1123 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 10 won, 5 drawn, 6 lost in 21 matches | 335 won, 123 drawn, 56 lost in 514 matches |
| Level at half-time | 8 won, 8 drawn, 13 lost in 29 matches | 323 won, 394 drawn, 323 lost in 1040 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 4 won, 11 drawn, 10 lost in 25 matches | 239 won, 406 drawn, 239 lost in 884 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 1 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 22 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 1 won, 14 drawn, 6 lost in 21 matches | 109 won, 488 drawn, 109 lost in 706 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 2 drawn, 20 lost in 22 matches | 12 won, 85 drawn, 433 lost in 530 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 17 won, 14 drawn, 26 lost in 57 matches | 620 won, 538 drawn, 620 lost in 1778 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 13 won, 10 drawn, 19 lost in 42 matches | 453 won, 424 drawn, 453 lost in 1330 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Udinese | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 12 scored, 26 conceded (74) | 708 scored, 708 conceded (2436) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 4 conceded (23) | 248 scored, 229 conceded (828) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 3 scored, 12 conceded (22) | 231 scored, 231 conceded (780) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 2 scored, 10 conceded (29) | 229 scored, 248 conceded (828) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 41 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 13(league sides: 1,254 times, within 15 minutes 185, by full time 557)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
AC Milan
Since 29 Oct 2024
| Score | AC Milan | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 34 won, 10 drawn, 2 lost in 46 matches | 760 won, 238 drawn, 125 lost in 1123 matches |
| Conceded first | 9 won, 7 drawn, 19 lost in 35 matches | 125 won, 238 drawn, 760 lost in 1123 matches |
| Level at half-time | 22 won, 12 drawn, 8 lost in 42 matches | 323 won, 394 drawn, 323 lost in 1040 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 17 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches | 372 won, 112 drawn, 34 lost in 518 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 13 won, 13 drawn, 6 lost in 32 matches | 239 won, 406 drawn, 239 lost in 884 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 21 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 27 matches | 391 won, 96 drawn, 23 lost in 510 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 8 won, 13 drawn, 4 lost in 25 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 23 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches | 433 won, 85 drawn, 12 lost in 530 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 5 won, 16 drawn, 2 lost in 23 matches | 109 won, 488 drawn, 109 lost in 706 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 35 won, 14 drawn, 11 lost in 60 matches | 620 won, 538 drawn, 620 lost in 1778 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 32 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 52 matches | 453 won, 424 drawn, 453 lost in 1330 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 4 won, 4 drawn, 12 lost in 20 matches | 58 won, 111 drawn, 292 lost in 461 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | AC Milan | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 29 scored, 19 conceded (85) | 708 scored, 708 conceded (2436) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 9 conceded (36) | 248 scored, 229 conceded (828) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 7 conceded (30) | 231 scored, 231 conceded (780) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 37 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 22(league sides: 1,254 times, within 15 minutes 185, by full time 557)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Udinese | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| 74Since 30 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 75Since 29 Oct 2024 |
| 80.99 | xG for | 120.94 |
| 83 | Goals scored | 112 |
| 107.04 | xG against | 85.86 |
| 109 | Goals conceded | 76 |
Udinese
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | v Lecce | 0.54 | 3.47 | 0–3 |
| 12 Oct 2026 | at Torino | 0.76 | 2.62 | 1–2 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Cagliari | 2.13 | 1.12 | 0–1 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | at Inter | 0.92 | 3.05 | 3–5 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | v Lazio | 0.85 | 1.83 | 1–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Monza | 0.98 | 1.70 | 3–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Como | 2.14 | 1.50 | 1–1 |
| 24 May 2026 | at Napoli | 0.37 | 1.76 | 0–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Cremonese | 0.35 | 0.45 | 0–1 |
| 9 May 2026 | at Cagliari | 2.47 | 1.47 | 2–0 |
AC Milan
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | v Atalanta | 2.58 | 1.74 | 3–2 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Sassuolo | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Lecce | 2.19 | 0.21 | 3–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Lazio | 1.25 | 2.01 | 2–2 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at Juventus | 0.11 | 1.59 | 1–1 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | v Venezia | 2.21 | 0.80 | 2–0 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at Torino | 2.15 | 1.29 | 2–1 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Cagliari | 1.74 | 2.78 | 1–2 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Genoa | 1.75 | 1.32 | 2–1 |
| 10 May 2026 | v Atalanta | 2.21 | 1.38 | 2–3 |
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| Udinese | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 7 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 4 | Points in those matches | 15 |
| 6.34 | xPts | 11.26 |
| 8.32 | xG for | 11.67 |
| 15.29 | xG against | 8.83 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Udinese and AC Milan
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- D. Alaba (Calf Injury) · V. Bayo (Thigh Injury) · I. Gueye (Ankle Injury) · A. Zanoli (Muscle Injury)
- Doubtful
- O. Solet (Muscle Injury)
- Ruled out
- S. Chukwueze (Hip Injury) · M. Gabbia (Thigh Injury) · M. Gila (Ankle Injury) · D. Moreira (Thigh Injury) · A. Rabiot (Calf Injury) · A. Saelemaekers (Ankle Injury)
Published 25 Oct 2026, 18:42 GMT · not changed since
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