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Serie A
Udinese
0–3Finished
Lecce
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 11:30 BSTMatchday 7 · Bluenergy Stadium, Udine

Udinese v Lecce match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Udinese are slight favourites at home with a 51% chance of victory, compared to Lecce's 21%. Both teams are in poor form with just one win in their last five matches each, and both are missing several players through injury.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 51%Udinese win
  • 28%Draw
  • 21%Lecce win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

UdineseUdinese

Last 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats

LecceLecce

Last 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Udinese won 21 of 35 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Lecce won 18 of 28 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
  • Udinese won 4 of the last 8 meetings.
  • Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Udinese's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: Udinese 4, draws 2, Lecce 2

Goals: Udinese 10, Lecce 7

DateMatchScore
8 Feb 2026Lecce v Udinese2–1
25 Oct 2025Udinese v Lecce3–2
21 Feb 2025Lecce v Udinese0–1
5 Oct 2024Udinese v Lecce1–0
13 May 2024Lecce v Udinese0–2
23 Oct 2023Udinese v Lecce1–1
28 Apr 2023Lecce v Udinese1–0
4 Nov 2022Udinese v Lecce1–1

Home and away

Udinese

Udinese at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostCagliari19 Sep 20260–1
  • LostLazio7 Sep 20261–2
  • WonVeneziaCoppa Italia2 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnComo22 Aug 20261–1
  • WonPadovaCoppa Italia15 Aug 20261–0

Udinese: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
8 scored, 9 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
3 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
3 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Lecce

Lecce away

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostAC Milan20 Sep 20260–3
  • LostCagliari7 Sep 20260–1
  • WonVenezia23 Aug 20262–0
  • LostPalermoCoppa Italia17 Aug 20260–2
  • WonSassuolo17 May 20263–2

Lecce: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
9 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Udinese
Last match
6 days before12 Oct 2026 · v Torino · Serie A
Next match
7 days after25 Oct 2026 · v AC Milan · Serie A
Lecce
Last match
7 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Bologna · Serie A
Next match
7 days after25 Oct 2026 · v Juventus · Serie A

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Udinese

Since 19 Oct 2024

ScoreUdineseLeague sides
Scored first21 won, 6 drawn, 8 lost in 35 matches749 won, 236 drawn, 124 lost in 1109 matches
Conceded first2 won, 6 drawn, 28 lost in 36 matches124 won, 236 drawn, 749 lost in 1109 matches
1 goal up at half-time11 won, 5 drawn, 6 lost in 22 matches330 won, 121 drawn, 56 lost in 507 matches
Level at half-time8 won, 8 drawn, 13 lost in 29 matches319 won, 394 drawn, 319 lost in 1032 matches
Level after 60 minutes4 won, 11 drawn, 10 lost in 25 matches237 won, 406 drawn, 237 lost in 880 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes0 won, 1 drawn, 19 lost in 20 matches34 won, 111 drawn, 369 lost in 514 matches
Level after 70 minutes1 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 22 matches179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches
Level after 80 minutes1 won, 14 drawn, 6 lost in 21 matches109 won, 486 drawn, 109 lost in 704 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 2 drawn, 21 lost in 23 matches11 won, 84 drawn, 432 lost in 527 matches
Level after 15 minutes18 won, 14 drawn, 26 lost in 58 matches610 won, 534 drawn, 610 lost in 1754 matches
Level after 30 minutes14 won, 10 drawn, 19 lost in 43 matches445 won, 424 drawn, 445 lost in 1314 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreUdineseLeague sides
All matches13 scored, 25 conceded (75)696 scored, 696 conceded (2408)
When leading after 75 minutes8 scored, 4 conceded (24)244 scored, 223 conceded (815)
When level after 75 minutes3 scored, 12 conceded (22)229 scored, 229 conceded (778)
When trailing after 75 minutes2 scored, 9 conceded (29)223 scored, 244 conceded (815)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 41 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 13(league sides: 1,236 times, within 15 minutes 182, by full time 550)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Lecce

Since 20 Oct 2024

ScoreLecceLeague sides
Scored first18 won, 4 drawn, 6 lost in 28 matches749 won, 236 drawn, 124 lost in 1109 matches
Conceded first1 won, 4 drawn, 34 lost in 39 matches124 won, 236 drawn, 749 lost in 1109 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 12 drawn, 13 lost in 34 matches319 won, 394 drawn, 319 lost in 1032 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 12 drawn, 12 lost in 30 matches237 won, 406 drawn, 237 lost in 880 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes0 won, 3 drawn, 18 lost in 21 matches34 won, 111 drawn, 369 lost in 514 matches
Level after 70 minutes2 won, 13 drawn, 10 lost in 25 matches179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes0 won, 3 drawn, 19 lost in 22 matches22 won, 94 drawn, 388 lost in 504 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 2 drawn, 23 lost in 25 matches11 won, 84 drawn, 432 lost in 527 matches
Level after 15 minutes13 won, 15 drawn, 27 lost in 55 matches610 won, 534 drawn, 610 lost in 1754 matches
Level after 30 minutes11 won, 12 drawn, 17 lost in 40 matches445 won, 424 drawn, 445 lost in 1314 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreLecceLeague sides
All matches12 scored, 20 conceded (75)696 scored, 696 conceded (2408)
When level after 75 minutes1 scored, 6 conceded (20)229 scored, 229 conceded (778)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 12 conceded (37)223 scored, 244 conceded (815)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 43 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 9(league sides: 1,236 times, within 15 minutes 182, by full time 550)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

UdineseLecce
75Since 19 Oct 2024Matches with xG75Since 20 Oct 2024
81.92xG for65.11
85Goals scored58
105.18xG against118.21
107Goals conceded108

Udinese

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Udinese: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
12 Oct 2026at Torino0.762.621–2
19 Sep 2026v Cagliari2.131.120–1
14 Sep 2026at Inter0.923.053–5
7 Sep 2026v Lazio0.851.831–2
29 Aug 2026at Monza0.981.703–2
22 Aug 2026v Como2.141.501–1
24 May 2026at Napoli0.371.760–1
17 May 2026v Cremonese0.350.450–1
9 May 2026at Cagliari2.471.472–0
2 May 2026v Torino2.000.832–0

Lecce

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Lecce: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
11 Oct 2026v Bologna1.491.981–2
20 Sep 2026at AC Milan0.212.190–3
13 Sep 2026v Monza1.082.793–2
7 Sep 2026at Cagliari0.501.610–1
31 Aug 2026v AS Roma0.803.270–4
23 Aug 2026at Venezia2.702.052–0
24 May 2026v Genoa1.430.681–0
17 May 2026at Sassuolo0.862.023–2
9 May 2026v Juventus0.882.290–1
1 May 2026at Pisa0.882.232–1

This league season

Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.

UdineseLecce
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
4Points in those matches6
6.18xPts4.42
7.78xG for6.78
11.82xG against13.89

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Udinese and Lecce

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • UdineseUdinese
    Ruled out
    J. Abankwah (Injury) · V. Bayo (Thigh Injury) · I. Gueye (Ankle Injury) · N. Zaniolo (Thigh Injury)
    Doubtful
    J. Piotrowski (Heart Problems) · A. Zanoli (Muscle Injury)
  • LecceLecce
    Ruled out
    I. Ilic (Thigh Injury)
    Doubtful
    M. Berisha (Lacking Match Fitness) · N. Stulic (Muscle Injury)

Published 18 Oct 2026, 10:27 BST · not changed since

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