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Bundesliga
Union Berlin
0–0Finished
Borussia Dortmund
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:30 BSTMatchday 6

Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Dortmund are heavy favourites with a 56% win probability and an expected goals advantage of 0.84. Union Berlin have struggled in recent weeks and face defensive injury concerns, while Dortmund have won their last four matches and dominated the head-to-head record.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 21%Union Berlin win
  • 23%Draw
  • 56%Borussia Dortmund win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Union BerlinUnion Berlin

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Union Berlin won 15 of 23 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
  • Borussia Dortmund won 44 of 62 matches in which they scored first, since 18 Oct 2024.
  • Borussia Dortmund won 8 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of Union Berlin's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Union Berlin 2, draws 0, Borussia Dortmund 8

Goals: Union Berlin 9, Borussia Dortmund 28

DateMatchScore
24 Jan 2026Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund0–3
31 Aug 2025Borussia Dortmund v Union Berlin3–0
22 Feb 2025Borussia Dortmund v Union Berlin6–0
5 Oct 2024Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund2–1
2 Mar 2024Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund0–2
7 Oct 2023Borussia Dortmund v Union Berlin4–2
8 Apr 2023Borussia Dortmund v Union Berlin2–1
16 Oct 2022Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund2–0
13 Feb 2022Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund0–3
19 Sep 2021Borussia Dortmund v Union Berlin4–2

Home and away

Union Berlin

Union Berlin at home

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonSV Elversberg10 Oct 20261–0
  • LostFC Schalke 0411 Sep 20261–3
  • DrawnEintracht Frankfurt29 Aug 20263–3
  • WonFC Augsburg16 May 20264–0
  • Drawn1. FC Köln2 May 20262–2

Union Berlin: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund away

Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostBodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League14 Oct 20260–1
  • WonVfB Stuttgart19 Sep 20261–0
  • Won1899 Hoffenheim5 Sep 20263–2
  • WonHEBCDFB Pokal1 Sep 20265–0
  • WonWerder Bremen16 May 20262–0

Borussia Dortmund: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 9 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Union Berlin
Last match
7 days before10 Oct 2026 · v SV Elversberg · Bundesliga
Next match
7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v FC Augsburg · Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund
Last match
3 days before14 Oct 2026 · v Bodo/Glimt · UEFA Champions League
Next match
3 days after20 Oct 2026 · v Sabah FA · UEFA Champions League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Union Berlin

Since 20 Oct 2024

ScoreUnion BerlinLeague sides
Scored first15 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost in 23 matches599 won, 195 drawn, 125 lost in 919 matches
Conceded first3 won, 10 drawn, 26 lost in 39 matches125 won, 195 drawn, 599 lost in 919 matches
Level at half-time6 won, 11 drawn, 4 lost in 21 matches200 won, 286 drawn, 200 lost in 686 matches
1 goal down at half-time2 won, 7 drawn, 11 lost in 20 matches55 won, 92 drawn, 266 lost in 413 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 11 drawn, 5 lost in 22 matches151 won, 284 drawn, 151 lost in 586 matches
2+ goals down after 60 minutes0 won, 0 drawn, 20 lost in 20 matches6 won, 14 drawn, 294 lost in 314 matches
Level after 70 minutes6 won, 13 drawn, 4 lost in 23 matches102 won, 290 drawn, 102 lost in 494 matches
2+ goals down after 70 minutes0 won, 3 drawn, 20 lost in 23 matches3 won, 7 drawn, 327 lost in 337 matches
Level after 15 minutes14 won, 15 drawn, 19 lost in 48 matches483 won, 354 drawn, 483 lost in 1320 matches
Level after 30 minutes9 won, 11 drawn, 13 lost in 33 matches317 won, 308 drawn, 317 lost in 942 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreUnion BerlinLeague sides
All matches27 scored, 22 conceded (67)700 scored, 700 conceded (1940)
When trailing after 75 minutes13 scored, 14 conceded (35)262 scored, 295 conceded (728)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 43 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 15(league sides: 1,114 times, within 15 minutes 192, by full time 508)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Borussia Dortmund

Since 18 Oct 2024

ScoreBorussia DortmundLeague sides
Scored first44 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 62 matches599 won, 195 drawn, 125 lost in 919 matches
Conceded first7 won, 2 drawn, 19 lost in 28 matches125 won, 195 drawn, 599 lost in 919 matches
1 goal up at half-time25 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 32 matches266 won, 92 drawn, 55 lost in 413 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 10 drawn, 6 lost in 27 matches200 won, 286 drawn, 200 lost in 686 matches
2+ goals up after 60 minutes23 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches294 won, 14 drawn, 6 lost in 314 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes17 won, 8 drawn, 2 lost in 27 matches244 won, 90 drawn, 29 lost in 363 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes23 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches327 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 337 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes20 won, 10 drawn, 1 lost in 31 matches270 won, 94 drawn, 22 lost in 386 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes30 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 31 matches355 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 358 matches
Level after 80 minutes8 won, 10 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches72 won, 334 drawn, 72 lost in 478 matches
Level after 15 minutes36 won, 15 drawn, 18 lost in 69 matches483 won, 354 drawn, 483 lost in 1320 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes19 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost in 26 matches246 won, 82 drawn, 60 lost in 388 matches
Level after 30 minutes24 won, 12 drawn, 10 lost in 46 matches317 won, 308 drawn, 317 lost in 942 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBorussia DortmundLeague sides
All matches51 scored, 36 conceded (91)700 scored, 700 conceded (1940)
When leading after 75 minutes28 scored, 16 conceded (48)295 scored, 262 conceded (728)
When level after 75 minutes13 scored, 11 conceded (21)143 scored, 143 conceded (484)
When trailing after 75 minutes10 scored, 9 conceded (22)262 scored, 295 conceded (728)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 33 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 16(league sides: 1,114 times, within 15 minutes 192, by full time 508)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Union BerlinBorussia Dortmund
67Since 20 Oct 2024Matches with xG67Since 18 Oct 2024
83.23xG for125.21
79Goals scored140
106.49xG against76.87
121Goals conceded78

Union Berlin

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Union Berlin: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026v SV Elversberg1.130.241–0
18 Sep 2026at Bayern München0.343.710–7
11 Sep 2026v FC Schalke 041.952.521–3
5 Sep 2026at Bayer Leverkusen0.393.110–4
29 Aug 2026v Eintracht Frankfurt1.841.473–3
16 May 2026v FC Augsburg3.680.614–0
10 May 2026at FSV Mainz 052.681.573–1
2 May 2026v 1. FC Köln1.151.752–2
24 Apr 2026at RB Leipzig0.194.491–3
18 Apr 2026v VfL Wolfsburg1.790.191–2

Borussia Dortmund

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Borussia Dortmund: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
9 Oct 2026v Werder Bremen2.421.132–2
19 Sep 2026at VfB Stuttgart1.340.871–0
12 Sep 2026v SC Paderborn 071.760.493–0
5 Sep 2026at 1899 Hoffenheim2.021.173–2
29 Aug 2026v Hamburger SV1.530.912–0
16 May 2026at Werder Bremen2.740.492–0
8 May 2026v Eintracht Frankfurt1.941.123–2
3 May 2026at Borussia Mönchengladbach0.492.200–1
26 Apr 2026v SC Freiburg3.370.764–0
18 Apr 2026at 1899 Hoffenheim0.702.251–2

This league season

Bundesliga matches since 28 Aug 2026.

Union BerlinBorussia Dortmund
5 of 5Matches with xG5 of 5
4Points in those matches13
5.06xPts9.87
5.65xG for9.07
11.05xG against4.57

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Union BerlinUnion Berlin
    Ruled out
    A. Ilic (Illness) · J. Juranovic (Achilles Tendon Injury) · A. Markgraf (Knee Injury) · S. Nsoki (Muscle Injury)
    Doubtful
    E. Latte Lath (Muscle Injury)
  • Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
    Ruled out
    E. Can (Knee Injury) · G. Konstantelias (Knee Injury) · J. Lerma (Muscle Injury)

Published 17 Oct 2026, 13:27 BST · not changed since

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