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Jupiler Pro League
Union St. Gilloise
5–2Finished
Cercle Brugge
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 18:15 GMTMatchday 9 · Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels

Union St. Gilloise v Cercle Brugge match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 25 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Union St. Gilloise are strong favourites with a 75% chance of winning. The model expects them to generate 2.41 shots on target to Cercle Brugge's 0.74, but their visitors have shown they can produce shocks in recent meetings.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 75%Union St. Gilloise win
  • 17%Draw
  • 8%Cercle Brugge win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise

Last 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats

Cercle BruggeCercle Brugge

Last 5: no wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Union St. Gilloise won 55 of 63 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
  • Cercle Brugge won 18 of 30 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
  • Union St. Gilloise won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Union St. Gilloise unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Union St. Gilloise 5, draws 3, Cercle Brugge 2

Goals: Union St. Gilloise 15, Cercle Brugge 11

DateMatchScore
26 Dec 2025Cercle Brugge v Union St. Gilloise1–1
22 Nov 2025Union St. Gilloise v Cercle Brugge2–0
8 Dec 2024Cercle Brugge v Union St. Gilloise0–0
27 Oct 2024Union St. Gilloise v Cercle Brugge1–3
19 May 2024Cercle Brugge v Union St. Gilloise1–2
7 Apr 2024Union St. Gilloise v Cercle Brugge2–3
3 Dec 2023Union St. Gilloise v Cercle Brugge2–1
24 Sep 2023Cercle Brugge v Union St. Gilloise0–2
18 Jan 2023Cercle Brugge v Union St. Gilloise1–1
9 Oct 2022Union St. Gilloise v Cercle Brugge2–1

Home and away

Union St. Gilloise

Union St. Gilloise at home

Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonHapoel Beer ShevaUEFA Europa League22 Oct 20264–0
  • DrawnReal SociedadUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20261–1
  • DrawnOH Leuven11 Oct 20261–1
  • WonLommel United12 Sep 20265–0
  • WonAnderlecht30 Aug 20263–0

Union St. Gilloise: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
22 scored, 3 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
3 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
7 of 10
Cercle Brugge

Cercle Brugge away

Last 5: 0 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostCharleroi19 Sep 20262–3
  • DrawnOH Leuven12 Sep 20261–1
  • LostClub Brugge KV23 Aug 20260–1
  • DrawnStandard Liege8 Aug 20262–2
  • LostRAAL La Louvière9 May 20261–4

Cercle Brugge: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 18 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Union St. Gilloise
Last match
3 days before22 Oct 2026 · v Hapoel Beer Sheva · UEFA Europa League
Next match
6 days after31 Oct 2026 · v SK Beveren · Jupiler Pro League
Cercle Brugge
Last match
9 days before16 Oct 2026 · v Sporting Hasselt · Cup
Next match
7 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Antwerp · Jupiler Pro League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 27 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Union St. Gilloise

ScoreUnion St. GilloiseLeague sides
Scored first55 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 63 matches638 won, 195 drawn, 121 lost in 954 matches
Conceded first6 won, 8 drawn, 12 lost in 26 matches121 won, 195 drawn, 638 lost in 954 matches
1 goal up at half-time25 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 29 matches303 won, 99 drawn, 43 lost in 445 matches
Level at half-time18 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 38 matches241 won, 328 drawn, 241 lost in 810 matches
2+ goals up after 60 minutes23 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches231 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 247 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes23 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches324 won, 105 drawn, 30 lost in 459 matches
Level after 60 minutes15 won, 13 drawn, 3 lost in 31 matches170 won, 304 drawn, 170 lost in 644 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes28 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 28 matches285 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 293 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes26 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 29 matches335 won, 94 drawn, 21 lost in 450 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 15 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches117 won, 336 drawn, 117 lost in 570 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes35 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 35 matches322 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 327 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes19 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches323 won, 81 drawn, 9 lost in 413 matches
Level after 80 minutes7 won, 18 drawn, 1 lost in 26 matches105 won, 366 drawn, 105 lost in 576 matches
Level after 15 minutes42 won, 19 drawn, 12 lost in 73 matches525 won, 410 drawn, 525 lost in 1460 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes19 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 23 matches253 won, 90 drawn, 49 lost in 392 matches
Level after 30 minutes30 won, 15 drawn, 10 lost in 55 matches378 won, 342 drawn, 378 lost in 1098 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreUnion St. GilloiseLeague sides
All matches40 scored, 23 conceded (97)682 scored, 682 conceded (2056)
When leading after 75 minutes23 scored, 10 conceded (58)264 scored, 243 conceded (740)
When level after 75 minutes10 scored, 6 conceded (23)175 scored, 175 conceded (576)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 28 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 16(league sides: 1,088 times, within 15 minutes 162, by full time 479)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Cercle Brugge

ScoreCercle BruggeLeague sides
Scored first18 won, 5 drawn, 7 lost in 30 matches638 won, 195 drawn, 121 lost in 954 matches
Conceded first1 won, 13 drawn, 22 lost in 36 matches121 won, 195 drawn, 638 lost in 954 matches
Level at half-time3 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 20 matches241 won, 328 drawn, 241 lost in 810 matches
1 goal down at half-time1 won, 9 drawn, 12 lost in 22 matches43 won, 99 drawn, 303 lost in 445 matches
Level after 60 minutes2 won, 13 drawn, 5 lost in 20 matches170 won, 304 drawn, 170 lost in 644 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes0 won, 8 drawn, 12 lost in 20 matches30 won, 105 drawn, 324 lost in 459 matches
Level after 15 minutes8 won, 18 drawn, 20 lost in 46 matches525 won, 410 drawn, 525 lost in 1460 matches
Level after 30 minutes5 won, 8 drawn, 14 lost in 27 matches378 won, 342 drawn, 378 lost in 1098 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes1 won, 12 drawn, 12 lost in 25 matches49 won, 90 drawn, 253 lost in 392 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreCercle BruggeLeague sides
All matches21 scored, 25 conceded (71)682 scored, 682 conceded (2056)
When leading after 75 minutes7 scored, 11 conceded (22)264 scored, 243 conceded (740)
When trailing after 75 minutes12 scored, 11 conceded (30)243 scored, 264 conceded (740)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 20(league sides: 1,088 times, within 15 minutes 162, by full time 479)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 28 Jul 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 27 Oct 2024

Union St. GilloiseCercle Brugge
77Matches with xG69
137.19xG for110.49
148Goals scored90
73.41xG against102.83
51Goals conceded111

Union St. Gilloise

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Union St. Gilloise: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
11 Oct 2026v OH Leuven1.141.461–1
20 Sep 2026at Antwerp3.340.412–0
12 Sep 2026v Lommel United3.270.655–0
5 Sep 2026at Charleroi1.242.183–2
2 Sep 2026at St. Truiden2.490.853–0
30 Aug 2026v Anderlecht1.601.343–0
15 Aug 2026v Zulte Waregem0.890.980–0
8 Aug 2026at KVC Westerlo1.790.765–1
24 May 2026v Anderlecht2.400.875–1
21 May 2026at Gent1.171.460–0

Cercle Brugge

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Cercle Brugge: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026v Anderlecht1.021.061–2
19 Sep 2026at Charleroi2.082.042–3
12 Sep 2026at OH Leuven1.600.921–1
6 Sep 2026v Gent0.491.220–3
29 Aug 2026v Lommel United1.251.630–1
23 Aug 2026at Club Brugge KV1.001.760–1
14 Aug 2026v St. Truiden4.152.043–3
8 Aug 2026at Standard Liege1.472.602–2
9 May 2026at RAAL La Louvière1.521.551–4
1 May 2026v Zulte Waregem2.541.522–3

Cercle Brugge: 2 without xG left out

This league season

Jupiler Pro League matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

Union St. GilloiseCercle Brugge
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
20Points in those matches3
14.73xPts10.47
15.76xG for13.06
8.63xG against13.27

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

Team news was not available for this match.

Published 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 GMT · not changed since

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