Union St. Gilloise v OH Leuven match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 11 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Union St. Gilloise are strong favourites with a 69% win probability, buoyed by five consecutive victories. OH Leuven have won just once in their last five matches. The model expects Union to create significantly more chances.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 69%Union St. Gilloise win
- 20%Draw
- 11%OH Leuven win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
Union St. GilloiseLast 5: 5 wins, no draws, no defeats
OH LeuvenLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Union St. Gilloise won 54 of 62 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- OH Leuven won 15 of 28 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- Union St. Gilloise won 7 of the last 10 meetings.
- Union St. Gilloise unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Union St. Gilloise 7, draws 2, OH Leuven 1
Goals: Union St. Gilloise 23, OH Leuven 6
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | OH Leuven v Union St. Gilloise | 0–0 |
| 3 Aug 2025 | Union St. Gilloise v OH Leuven | 5–0 |
| 19 Jan 2025 | Union St. Gilloise v OH Leuven | 1–0 |
| 24 Nov 2024 | OH Leuven v Union St. Gilloise | 1–1 |
| 2 Mar 2024 | OH Leuven v Union St. Gilloise | 0–2 |
| 12 Aug 2023 | Union St. Gilloise v OH Leuven | 5–1 |
| 21 Jan 2023 | Union St. Gilloise v OH Leuven | 1–0 |
| 1 Oct 2022 | OH Leuven v Union St. Gilloise | 0–3 |
| 11 Mar 2022 | OH Leuven v Union St. Gilloise | 1–4 |
| 26 Nov 2021 | Union St. Gilloise v OH Leuven | 1–3 |
Home and away
Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise at home
Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost
- WonLommel United12 Sep 20265–0
- WonAnderlecht30 Aug 20263–0
- DrawnZulte Waregem15 Aug 20260–0
- DrawnBodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League4 Aug 20263–3
- WonAnderlecht24 May 20265–1
Union St. Gilloise: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 23 scored, 3 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 3 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 10
OH LeuvenOH Leuven away
Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost
- LostSK Beveren6 Sep 20260–3
- LostGent3 Sep 20260–1
- LostCharleroi9 Aug 20261–3
- DrawnCharleroi19 May 20261–1
- LostStandard Liege8 May 20261–2
OH Leuven: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 9 scored, 20 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Union St. Gilloise- Last match
- 21 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Antwerp · Jupiler Pro League
- Next match
- 4 days after15 Oct 2026 · v Real Sociedad · UEFA Europa League
OH Leuven- Last match
- 22 days before19 Sep 2026 · v RAAL La Louvière · Jupiler Pro League
- Next match
- 6 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Francs Borains · Cup
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Union St. Gilloise
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Score | Union St. Gilloise | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 54 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 62 matches | 632 won, 192 drawn, 120 lost in 944 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 25 matches | 120 won, 192 drawn, 632 lost in 944 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 24 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 28 matches | 301 won, 96 drawn, 43 lost in 440 matches |
| Level at half-time | 18 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 38 matches | 239 won, 328 drawn, 239 lost in 806 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 60 minutes | 22 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches | 230 won, 11 drawn, 4 lost in 245 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 23 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches | 318 won, 103 drawn, 30 lost in 451 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 15 won, 14 drawn, 3 lost in 32 matches | 170 won, 304 drawn, 170 lost in 644 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 70 minutes | 27 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 27 matches | 283 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 291 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 26 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 29 matches | 331 won, 92 drawn, 21 lost in 444 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 15 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches | 116 won, 334 drawn, 116 lost in 566 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 80 minutes | 34 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 34 matches | 318 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 323 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 19 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches | 320 won, 79 drawn, 9 lost in 408 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 7 won, 18 drawn, 1 lost in 26 matches | 105 won, 364 drawn, 105 lost in 574 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 41 won, 18 drawn, 13 lost in 72 matches | 519 won, 406 drawn, 519 lost in 1444 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 19 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 23 matches | 251 won, 88 drawn, 48 lost in 387 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 29 won, 15 drawn, 10 lost in 54 matches | 375 won, 340 drawn, 375 lost in 1090 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Union St. Gilloise | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 37 scored, 23 conceded (96) | 673 scored, 673 conceded (2036) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 21 scored, 10 conceded (57) | 260 scored, 239 conceded (732) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 6 conceded (23) | 174 scored, 174 conceded (572) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 27 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 14(league sides: 1,075 times, within 15 minutes 162, by full time 472)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
OH Leuven
Since 20 Oct 2024
| Score | OH Leuven | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 15 won, 9 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches | 632 won, 192 drawn, 120 lost in 944 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 8 drawn, 31 lost in 42 matches | 120 won, 192 drawn, 632 lost in 944 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 15 drawn, 15 lost in 39 matches | 239 won, 328 drawn, 239 lost in 806 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 9 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 29 matches | 170 won, 304 drawn, 170 lost in 644 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 1 won, 4 drawn, 20 lost in 25 matches | 30 won, 103 drawn, 318 lost in 451 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 5 won, 15 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches | 116 won, 334 drawn, 116 lost in 566 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 3 drawn, 21 lost in 25 matches | 21 won, 92 drawn, 331 lost in 444 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 2 won, 18 drawn, 3 lost in 23 matches | 105 won, 364 drawn, 105 lost in 574 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 1 won, 3 drawn, 19 lost in 23 matches | 9 won, 79 drawn, 320 lost in 408 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 14 won, 19 drawn, 24 lost in 57 matches | 519 won, 406 drawn, 519 lost in 1444 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 15 won, 17 drawn, 18 lost in 50 matches | 375 won, 340 drawn, 375 lost in 1090 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | OH Leuven | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 19 scored, 26 conceded (77) | 673 scored, 673 conceded (2036) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 6 conceded (24) | 174 scored, 174 conceded (572) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 14 conceded (36) | 239 scored, 260 conceded (732) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 18(league sides: 1,075 times, within 15 minutes 162, by full time 472)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 28 Jul 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Union St. Gilloise | OH Leuven | |
|---|---|---|
| 77Since 19 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 77Since 20 Oct 2024 |
| 137.39 | xG for | 92.06 |
| 147 | Goals scored | 75 |
| 72.68 | xG against | 123.33 |
| 50 | Goals conceded | 110 |
Union St. Gilloise
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Antwerp | 3.34 | 0.41 | 2–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Lommel United | 3.27 | 0.65 | 5–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Charleroi | 1.24 | 2.18 | 3–2 |
| 2 Sep 2026 | at St. Truiden | 2.49 | 0.85 | 3–0 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Anderlecht | 1.60 | 1.34 | 3–0 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v Zulte Waregem | 0.89 | 0.98 | 0–0 |
| 8 Aug 2026 | at KVC Westerlo | 1.79 | 0.76 | 5–1 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Anderlecht | 2.40 | 0.87 | 5–1 |
| 21 May 2026 | at Gent | 1.17 | 1.46 | 0–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Club Brugge KV | 1.52 | 2.12 | 0–5 |
OH Leuven
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | v RAAL La Louvière | 0.86 | 0.47 | 2–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Cercle Brugge | 0.92 | 1.60 | 1–1 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at SK Beveren | 0.88 | 2.68 | 0–3 |
| 3 Sep 2026 | at Gent | 0.52 | 0.98 | 0–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Standard Liege | 1.89 | 1.36 | 1–2 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v Club Brugge KV | 0.72 | 2.92 | 0–3 |
| 9 Aug 2026 | at Charleroi | 1.30 | 3.15 | 1–3 |
| 23 May 2026 | v Genk | 1.09 | 1.47 | 0–2 |
| 19 May 2026 | at Charleroi | 0.82 | 1.83 | 1–1 |
| 15 May 2026 | v Antwerp | 1.28 | 1.02 | 3–0 |
This league season
Jupiler Pro League matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Union St. Gilloise | OH Leuven | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 7 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 19 | Points in those matches | 4 |
| 13.58 | xPts | 6.47 |
| 14.62 | xG for | 7.09 |
| 7.17 | xG against | 13.16 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 11 Oct 2026, 14:18 BST · not changed since
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