Utrecht v NEC Nijmegen · analysis and preview
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Most likely: Utrecht win
Utrecht are slight favourites at home with a 42% estimated chance of winning versus NEC Nijmegen's 34%, though a draw is plausible at 24%. The model expects Utrecht to create slightly more (1.73 expected goals to 1.56), a gap of 0.17 in their favour. Head-to-head results are mixed: Utrecht won 3-1 away in February but lost 1-0 at home in November.
How the match could end · our estimate
- 42%Utrecht win
- 24%Draw
- 34%NEC Nijmegen win
PRO analysis
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Form · newest first
UtrechtLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
- lost2–4at Telstar
- won1–0at Kozakken Boys
- drew1–1v PEC Zwolle
- won2–1at Twente
- won3–1v Willem II
NEC NijmegenLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
- won3–1v Omonia Nicosia
- lost0–1at Heerenveen
- drew2–2v Groningen
- won4–2at Dinamo Zagreb
- drew2–2v Fortuna Sittard
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Utrecht won 29 of 40 matches in which they scored first, since 8 Nov 2024.
- NEC Nijmegen won 23 of 32 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
- Utrecht won 6 of the last 10 meetings.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Utrecht's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Utrecht 6, draws 2, NEC Nijmegen 2
Goals: Utrecht 13, NEC Nijmegen 8
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb 2026 | NEC Nijmegen v Utrecht | 1–3 |
| 2 Nov 2025 | Utrecht v NEC Nijmegen | 1–0 |
| 15 Mar 2025 | Utrecht v NEC Nijmegen | 0–1 |
| 24 Nov 2024 | NEC Nijmegen v Utrecht | 1–2 |
| 17 Mar 2024 | Utrecht v NEC Nijmegen | 1–0 |
| 23 Sep 2023 | NEC Nijmegen v Utrecht | 3–0 |
| 12 Mar 2023 | NEC Nijmegen v Utrecht | 2–2 |
| 16 Sep 2022 | Utrecht v NEC Nijmegen | 0–0 |
| 29 Apr 2022 | Utrecht v NEC Nijmegen | 1–0 |
| 22 Sep 2021 | NEC Nijmegen v Utrecht | 0–3 |
Home and away
UtrechtUtrecht at home
Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost
- DrawnPEC Zwolle24 Oct 20261–1
- WonWillem II11 Oct 20263–1
- DrawnGO Ahead Eagles5 Sep 20263–3
- LostPSV Eindhoven30 Aug 20261–6
- LostAZ Alkmaar15 Aug 20261–4
Utrecht: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 22 scored, 18 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen away
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- LostHeerenveen31 Oct 20260–1
- WonDinamo ZagrebUEFA Europa League22 Oct 20264–2
- DrawnAjax10 Oct 20261–1
- LostJuventusUEFA Europa League17 Sep 20260–5
- LostCambuur12 Sep 20260–3
NEC Nijmegen: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 16 scored, 13 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Utrecht- Last match
- 7 days before1 Nov 2026 · v Telstar · Eredivisie
- Next match
- Not known
NEC Nijmegen- Last match
- 3 days before5 Nov 2026 · v Omonia Nicosia · UEFA Europa League
- Next match
- Not known
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Utrecht
Since 8 Nov 2024
| Score | Utrecht | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 29 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost in 40 matches | 658 won, 229 drawn, 121 lost in 1008 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 11 drawn, 24 lost in 41 matches | 121 won, 229 drawn, 658 lost in 1008 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 17 drawn, 6 lost in 33 matches | 234 won, 302 drawn, 234 lost in 770 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 8 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 26 matches | 171 won, 290 drawn, 171 lost in 632 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 5 won, 13 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches | 124 won, 324 drawn, 124 lost in 572 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches | 18 won, 97 drawn, 279 lost in 394 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 6 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches | 4 won, 95 drawn, 311 lost in 410 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 29 won, 18 drawn, 15 lost in 62 matches | 492 won, 400 drawn, 492 lost in 1384 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 21 won, 13 drawn, 10 lost in 44 matches | 344 won, 320 drawn, 344 lost in 1008 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 4 won, 5 drawn, 13 lost in 22 matches | 62 won, 100 drawn, 268 lost in 430 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Utrecht | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 32 scored, 31 conceded (86) | 767 scored, 767 conceded (2098) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 11 conceded (36) | 338 scored, 243 conceded (781) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 16 scored, 11 conceded (32) | 243 scored, 338 conceded (781) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 27(league sides: 1,198 times, within 15 minutes 202, by full time 552)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
NEC Nijmegen
Since 9 Nov 2024
| Score | NEC Nijmegen | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 23 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 32 matches | 658 won, 229 drawn, 121 lost in 1008 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 17 drawn, 21 lost in 42 matches | 121 won, 229 drawn, 658 lost in 1008 matches |
| Level at half-time | 11 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 31 matches | 234 won, 302 drawn, 234 lost in 770 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 1 won, 9 drawn, 10 lost in 20 matches | 53 won, 104 drawn, 300 lost in 457 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 9 won, 14 drawn, 3 lost in 26 matches | 171 won, 290 drawn, 171 lost in 632 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 5 won, 17 drawn, 1 lost in 23 matches | 124 won, 324 drawn, 124 lost in 572 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 3 won, 18 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches | 78 won, 344 drawn, 78 lost in 500 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 18 won, 18 drawn, 16 lost in 52 matches | 492 won, 400 drawn, 492 lost in 1384 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 13 won, 15 drawn, 13 lost in 41 matches | 344 won, 320 drawn, 344 lost in 1008 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | NEC Nijmegen | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 35 scored, 15 conceded (76) | 767 scored, 767 conceded (2098) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 13 scored, 6 conceded (24) | 338 scored, 243 conceded (781) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 3 conceded (22) | 186 scored, 186 conceded (536) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 15 scored, 6 conceded (30) | 243 scored, 338 conceded (781) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 58 times, equalised within 15 minutes 16, by full time 36(league sides: 1,198 times, within 15 minutes 202, by full time 552)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Utrecht | NEC Nijmegen | |
|---|---|---|
| 69Since 8 Nov 2024 | Matches with xG | 68Since 9 Nov 2024 |
| 106.15 | xG for | 113.98 |
| 118 | Goals scored | 129 |
| 97.60 | xG against | 98.77 |
| 108 | Goals conceded | 108 |
Utrecht
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov 2026 | at Telstar | 1.31 | 2.49 | 2–4 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | v PEC Zwolle | 1.66 | 0.95 | 1–1 |
| 18 Oct 2026 | at Twente | 1.25 | 1.36 | 2–1 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Willem II | 1.25 | 0.71 | 3–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Feyenoord | 0.58 | 3.41 | 0–5 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Excelsior | 1.42 | 0.61 | 2–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v GO Ahead Eagles | 2.47 | 1.79 | 3–3 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v PSV Eindhoven | 0.30 | 3.58 | 1–6 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Sparta Rotterdam | 1.92 | 1.73 | 3–3 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v AZ Alkmaar | 0.91 | 2.10 | 1–4 |
NEC Nijmegen
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | at Heerenveen | 1.33 | 1.46 | 0–1 |
| 25 Oct 2026 | v Groningen | 1.80 | 1.45 | 2–2 |
| 18 Oct 2026 | v Fortuna Sittard | 3.06 | 0.45 | 2–2 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Ajax | 1.05 | 1.78 | 1–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v GO Ahead Eagles | 1.04 | 2.31 | 1–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Cambuur | 0.93 | 3.12 | 0–3 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | v Excelsior | 1.36 | 1.81 | 2–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Feyenoord | 0.74 | 1.11 | 1–3 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at PEC Zwolle | 1.94 | 2.03 | 3–1 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Willem II | 2.99 | 1.43 | 4–1 |
Utrecht: 2 without xG left outNEC Nijmegen: 1 without xG left out
This league season
Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Utrecht | NEC Nijmegen | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 of 11 | Matches with xG | 11 of 11 |
| 12 | Points in those matches | 11 |
| 13.67 | xPts | 14.93 |
| 15.34 | xG for | 18.39 |
| 20.28 | xG against | 18.61 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news not available yet.
Updated 6 Nov 2026, 19:03 GMT
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