Utrecht v PEC Zwolle match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Utrecht are clear favourites in the model's assessment, given a 61% chance of winning. Expected goals favour the hosts by 1.03, with an anticipated total of 3.35. Both teams are dealing with multiple injury concerns ahead of this fixture.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 61%Utrecht win
- 21%Draw
- 18%PEC Zwolle win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
UtrechtLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
PEC ZwolleLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Utrecht won 29 of 40 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
- PEC Zwolle won 17 of 33 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
- Utrecht won 4 of the last 8 meetings.
- Over 2.5 goals in 7 of PEC Zwolle's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
8 meetings: Utrecht 4, draws 3, PEC Zwolle 1
Goals: Utrecht 18, PEC Zwolle 8
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb 2026 | Utrecht v PEC Zwolle | 1–1 |
| 31 Aug 2025 | PEC Zwolle v Utrecht | 0–2 |
| 1 Feb 2025 | PEC Zwolle v Utrecht | 3–3 |
| 11 Aug 2024 | Utrecht v PEC Zwolle | 1–0 |
| 3 Apr 2024 | Utrecht v PEC Zwolle | 5–1 |
| 27 Aug 2023 | PEC Zwolle v Utrecht | 1–0 |
| 7 May 2022 | PEC Zwolle v Utrecht | 1–1 |
| 25 Sep 2021 | Utrecht v PEC Zwolle | 5–1 |
Home and away
UtrechtUtrecht at home
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- WonWillem II11 Oct 20263–1
- DrawnGO Ahead Eagles5 Sep 20263–3
- LostPSV Eindhoven30 Aug 20261–6
- LostAZ Alkmaar15 Aug 20261–4
- WonHeerenveen21 May 20263–2
Utrecht: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 23 scored, 17 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle away
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- LostGroningen18 Sep 20260–3
- DrawnSparta Rotterdam4 Sep 20262–2
- WonHeerenveen22 Aug 20262–0
- LostTwente16 Aug 20261–3
- LostFortuna Sittard10 May 20262–3
PEC Zwolle: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 28 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Utrecht- Last match
- 6 days before18 Oct 2026 · v Twente · Eredivisie
- Next match
- 5 days after29 Oct 2026 · v Kozakken Boys · KNVB Beker
PEC Zwolle- Last match
- 6 days before18 Oct 2026 · v GO Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie
- Next match
- 4 days after28 Oct 2026 · v FC OSS · KNVB Beker
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Utrecht
Since 27 Oct 2024
| Score | Utrecht | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 29 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost in 40 matches | 646 won, 225 drawn, 120 lost in 991 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 10 drawn, 24 lost in 40 matches | 120 won, 225 drawn, 646 lost in 991 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 16 drawn, 6 lost in 32 matches | 230 won, 298 drawn, 230 lost in 758 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 4 won, 3 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches | 53 won, 103 drawn, 296 lost in 452 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 8 won, 13 drawn, 4 lost in 25 matches | 167 won, 286 drawn, 167 lost in 620 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 5 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 21 matches | 121 won, 320 drawn, 121 lost in 562 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches | 18 won, 95 drawn, 275 lost in 388 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 5 drawn, 15 lost in 20 matches | 4 won, 93 drawn, 306 lost in 403 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 28 won, 17 drawn, 15 lost in 60 matches | 484 won, 394 drawn, 484 lost in 1362 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 20 won, 12 drawn, 10 lost in 42 matches | 339 won, 316 drawn, 339 lost in 994 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 4 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 23 matches | 62 won, 98 drawn, 263 lost in 423 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Utrecht | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 34 scored, 32 conceded (85) | 755 scored, 755 conceded (2064) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 12 conceded (36) | 333 scored, 240 conceded (769) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 15 scored, 11 conceded (31) | 240 scored, 333 conceded (769) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 26(league sides: 1,181 times, within 15 minutes 200, by full time 545)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
PEC Zwolle
Since 26 Oct 2024
| Score | PEC Zwolle | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 17 won, 11 drawn, 5 lost in 33 matches | 646 won, 225 drawn, 120 lost in 991 matches |
| Conceded first | 2 won, 7 drawn, 24 lost in 33 matches | 120 won, 225 drawn, 646 lost in 991 matches |
| Level at half-time | 4 won, 13 drawn, 10 lost in 27 matches | 230 won, 298 drawn, 230 lost in 758 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 2 won, 13 drawn, 9 lost in 24 matches | 167 won, 286 drawn, 167 lost in 620 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 1 won, 12 drawn, 7 lost in 20 matches | 121 won, 320 drawn, 121 lost in 562 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 13 won, 14 drawn, 18 lost in 45 matches | 484 won, 394 drawn, 484 lost in 1362 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 9 won, 12 drawn, 8 lost in 29 matches | 339 won, 316 drawn, 339 lost in 994 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | PEC Zwolle | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 15 scored, 29 conceded (68) | 755 scored, 755 conceded (2064) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 6 conceded (23) | 333 scored, 240 conceded (769) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 3 scored, 12 conceded (21) | 182 scored, 182 conceded (526) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 4 scored, 11 conceded (24) | 240 scored, 333 conceded (769) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 37 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 15(league sides: 1,181 times, within 15 minutes 200, by full time 545)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Utrecht | PEC Zwolle | |
|---|---|---|
| 69Since 27 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 67Since 26 Oct 2024 |
| 104.46 | xG for | 78.78 |
| 119 | Goals scored | 86 |
| 97.26 | xG against | 118.98 |
| 106 | Goals conceded | 128 |
Utrecht
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | at Twente | 1.25 | 1.36 | 2–1 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Willem II | 1.25 | 0.71 | 3–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Feyenoord | 0.58 | 3.41 | 0–5 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Excelsior | 1.42 | 0.61 | 2–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v GO Ahead Eagles | 2.47 | 1.79 | 3–3 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v PSV Eindhoven | 0.30 | 3.58 | 1–6 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Sparta Rotterdam | 1.92 | 1.73 | 3–3 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v AZ Alkmaar | 0.91 | 2.10 | 1–4 |
| 9 Aug 2026 | at Groningen | 2.27 | 1.55 | 1–2 |
| 21 May 2026 | v Heerenveen | 2.08 | 1.26 | 3–2 |
PEC Zwolle
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | v GO Ahead Eagles | 1.81 | 2.76 | 4–1 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Cambuur | 0.98 | 0.82 | 0–1 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | at Groningen | 0.43 | 1.39 | 0–3 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v Feyenoord | 0.19 | 3.40 | 0–7 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | at Sparta Rotterdam | 1.07 | 2.23 | 2–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v NEC Nijmegen | 2.03 | 1.94 | 1–3 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Heerenveen | 1.55 | 0.85 | 2–0 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | at Twente | 0.68 | 2.08 | 1–3 |
| 9 Aug 2026 | v Ajax | 0.59 | 1.54 | 0–2 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Feyenoord | 0.80 | 3.21 | 0–2 |
Utrecht: 2 without xG left outPEC Zwolle: 1 without xG left out
This league season
Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Utrecht | PEC Zwolle | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 11 | Points in those matches | 7 |
| 11.06 | xPts | 8.28 |
| 12.37 | xG for | 9.33 |
| 16.84 | xG against | 17.01 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Utrecht and PEC Zwolle
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- A. Engwanda (Hamstring Injury) · V. Jensen (Knee Injury) · M. Jonathans (Knee Injury) · N. Ohio (Knee Injury) · K. Paredes (Knee Injury)
- Doubtful
- V. Barkas (Inactive) · M. Broholm (Inactive) · A. Stepanov (Ankle Injury)
- Ruled out
- S. Floranus (Injury) · F. Krastev (Achilles Tendon Injury) · Y. Namli (Knee Injury)
Published 24 Oct 2026, 14:27 BST · not changed since
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