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Eredivisie
Utrecht
3–1Finished
Willem II
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 11:15 BST

Utrecht v Willem II match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 11 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 62%Utrecht win
  • 22%Draw
  • 16%Willem II win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

UtrechtUtrecht

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

Willem IIWillem II

Last 5: no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Utrecht won 29 of 40 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
  • Eredivisie, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 159 of 217.
  • Utrecht won 3 of the last 4 meetings.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

4 meetings: Utrecht 3, draws 0, Willem II 1

Goals: Utrecht 11, Willem II 8

DateMatchScore
9 Mar 2025Willem II v Utrecht2–3
21 Sep 2024Utrecht v Willem II3–2
15 May 2022Willem II v Utrecht3–0
31 Oct 2021Utrecht v Willem II5–1

Home and away

Utrecht

Utrecht at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnGO Ahead Eagles5 Sep 20263–3
  • LostPSV Eindhoven30 Aug 20261–6
  • LostAZ Alkmaar15 Aug 20261–4
  • WonHeerenveen21 May 20263–2
  • WonFortuna Sittard17 May 20262–0

Utrecht: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
21 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Willem II

Willem II away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostAjax15 Sep 20261–5
  • DrawnAZ Alkmaar11 Sep 20261–1
  • LostGO Ahead Eagles8 Aug 20261–4
  • WonFC VolendamEerste Divisie23 May 20262–1 PEN
  • WonAlmere City FCEerste Divisie13 May 20261–0

Willem II: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Utrecht
Last match
21 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Feyenoord · Eredivisie
Next match
7 days after18 Oct 2026 · v Twente · Eredivisie
Willem II
Last match
22 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie
Next match
6 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 20 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Utrecht

ScoreUtrechtLeague sides
Scored first29 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost in 40 matches639 won, 222 drawn, 116 lost in 977 matches
Conceded first5 won, 10 drawn, 24 lost in 39 matches116 won, 222 drawn, 639 lost in 977 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 16 drawn, 6 lost in 31 matches227 won, 294 drawn, 227 lost in 748 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 13 drawn, 4 lost in 23 matches163 won, 284 drawn, 163 lost in 610 matches
Level after 70 minutes4 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 20 matches118 won, 318 drawn, 118 lost in 554 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches18 won, 93 drawn, 272 lost in 383 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 5 drawn, 15 lost in 20 matches4 won, 91 drawn, 302 lost in 397 matches
Level after 15 minutes27 won, 17 drawn, 15 lost in 59 matches477 won, 392 drawn, 477 lost in 1346 matches
Level after 30 minutes19 won, 12 drawn, 10 lost in 41 matches337 won, 312 drawn, 337 lost in 986 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes3 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 22 matches58 won, 97 drawn, 258 lost in 413 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreUtrechtLeague sides
All matches33 scored, 32 conceded (84)744 scored, 744 conceded (2036)
When leading after 75 minutes13 scored, 12 conceded (35)328 scored, 236 conceded (758)
When trailing after 75 minutes15 scored, 11 conceded (31)236 scored, 328 conceded (758)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 25(league sides: 1,160 times, within 15 minutes 196, by full time 533)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 20 Oct 2024

UtrechtWillem II
68Matches with xG—
102.48xG for—
115Goals scored—
95.91xG against—
104Goals conceded—

Utrecht

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Utrecht: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026at Feyenoord0.583.410–5
13 Sep 2026at Excelsior1.420.612–1
5 Sep 2026v GO Ahead Eagles2.471.793–3
30 Aug 2026v PSV Eindhoven0.303.581–6
22 Aug 2026at Sparta Rotterdam1.921.733–3
15 Aug 2026v AZ Alkmaar0.912.101–4
9 Aug 2026at Groningen2.271.551–2
21 May 2026v Heerenveen2.081.263–2
17 May 2026v Fortuna Sittard2.090.482–0
2 May 2026v NAC Breda2.900.452–0

Utrecht: 2 without xG left out

This league season

Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

UtrechtWillem II
7 of 7Matches with xG7 of 7
5Points in those matches2
8.00xPts6.09
9.87xG for9.02
14.77xG against15.95

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Utrecht and Willem II

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • UtrechtUtrechtA. Engwanda (Hamstring Injury) · V. Jensen (Knee Injury) · M. Jonathans (Knee Injury) · N. Ohio (Knee Injury) · K. Paredes (Knee Injury) · A. Stepanov (Ankle Injury)
  • Willem IIWillem IIA. Culum (Foot Injury) · T. Didillon Hodl (Hamstring Injury)

Published 11 Oct 2026, 00:02 BST · not changed since

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