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La Liga
Valencia
0–0Finished
Athletic Club
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 20:00 BSTMatchday 9 · Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia

Valencia v Athletic Club match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Valencia are favoured at 40% to win this tight La Liga encounter, though Athletic Club remain competitive at 31%. The model expects 2.47 goals, with Valencia projected ahead of Athletic in expected goals by 0.17. Both sides face significant injury concerns heading into the match.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 40%Valencia win
  • 29%Draw
  • 31%Athletic Club win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

ValenciaValencia

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

Athletic ClubAthletic Club

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • La Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 248 of 313.
  • Athletic Club won 31 of 38 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Athletic Club won 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Valencia 3, draws 1, Athletic Club 6

Goals: Valencia 9, Athletic Club 12

DateMatchScore
10 May 2026Athletic Club v Valencia0–1
4 Feb 2026Valencia v Athletic ClubCopa del Rey1–2
20 Sep 2025Valencia v Athletic Club2–0
18 May 2025Valencia v Athletic Club0–1
28 Aug 2024Athletic Club v Valencia1–0
20 Jan 2024Valencia v Athletic Club1–0
29 Oct 2023Athletic Club v Valencia2–2
11 Feb 2023Valencia v Athletic Club1–2
26 Jan 2023Valencia v Athletic ClubCopa del Rey1–3
21 Aug 2022Athletic Club v Valencia1–0

Home and away

Valencia

Valencia at home

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostReal Sociedad20 Sep 20262–3
  • LostBarcelona6 Sep 20260–5
  • LostReal Betis25 Aug 20260–1
  • DrawnCelta Vigo22 Aug 20260–0
  • WonBarcelona23 May 20263–1

Valencia: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10
Athletic Club

Athletic Club away

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • WonCelta Vigo30 Aug 20262–0
  • LostBarcelona27 Aug 20260–2
  • LostReal Madrid23 May 20262–4
  • LostEspanyol13 May 20260–2
  • WonAlaves2 May 20264–2

Athletic Club: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 20 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Valencia
Last match
6 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Racing Santander · La Liga
Next match
7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Villarreal · La Liga
Athletic Club
Last match
Not known
Next match
4 days after21 Oct 2026 · v Levante · La Liga

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Athletic Club

ScoreAthletic ClubLeague sides
Scored first31 won, 1 drawn, 6 lost in 38 matches758 won, 246 drawn, 143 lost in 1147 matches
Conceded first8 won, 11 drawn, 26 lost in 45 matches143 won, 246 drawn, 758 lost in 1147 matches
Level at half-time13 won, 15 drawn, 17 lost in 45 matches343 won, 374 drawn, 343 lost in 1060 matches
Level after 60 minutes14 won, 16 drawn, 11 lost in 41 matches264 won, 380 drawn, 264 lost in 908 matches
Level after 70 minutes10 won, 18 drawn, 8 lost in 36 matches206 won, 418 drawn, 206 lost in 830 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes2 won, 4 drawn, 14 lost in 20 matches26 won, 104 drawn, 394 lost in 524 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes20 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches409 won, 89 drawn, 12 lost in 510 matches
Level after 80 minutes6 won, 20 drawn, 4 lost in 30 matches152 won, 450 drawn, 152 lost in 754 matches
Level after 15 minutes28 won, 18 drawn, 24 lost in 70 matches640 won, 486 drawn, 640 lost in 1766 matches
Level after 30 minutes17 won, 18 drawn, 18 lost in 53 matches472 won, 422 drawn, 472 lost in 1366 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes7 won, 3 drawn, 11 lost in 21 matches61 won, 101 drawn, 291 lost in 453 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreAthletic ClubLeague sides
All matches31 scored, 32 conceded (93)789 scored, 789 conceded (2442)
When leading after 75 minutes12 scored, 8 conceded (31)280 scored, 275 conceded (827)
When level after 75 minutes12 scored, 8 conceded (32)234 scored, 234 conceded (788)
When trailing after 75 minutes7 scored, 16 conceded (30)275 scored, 280 conceded (827)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 51 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 25(league sides: 1,287 times, within 15 minutes 212, by full time 602)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

ValenciaAthletic Club
75Since 21 Oct 2024Matches with xG73Since 19 Oct 2024
94.63xG for101.46
91Goals scored91
96.87xG against76.40
111Goals conceded83

Valencia

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Valencia: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
11 Oct 2026at Racing Santander1.801.282–2
20 Sep 2026v Real Sociedad1.552.652–3
15 Sep 2026at Alaves0.651.051–0
11 Sep 2026at Sevilla0.100.930–1
6 Sep 2026v Barcelona0.664.080–5
30 Aug 2026at Deportivo La Coruna1.401.421–3
25 Aug 2026v Real Betis1.120.710–1
22 Aug 2026v Celta Vigo0.580.660–0
23 May 2026v Barcelona1.481.523–1
17 May 2026at Real Sociedad1.671.154–3

Athletic Club

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Athletic Club: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026v Alaves1.620.050–0
12 Sep 2026v Elche2.390.841–1
5 Sep 2026v Atletico Madrid1.411.023–0
30 Aug 2026at Celta Vigo2.780.752–0
27 Aug 2026at Barcelona0.254.230–2
22 Aug 2026v Sevilla1.250.411–3
23 May 2026at Real Madrid0.811.902–4
17 May 2026v Celta Vigo2.490.151–1
13 May 2026at Espanyol0.820.760–2
10 May 2026v Valencia0.931.190–1

This league season

La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.

ValenciaAthletic Club
8 of 8Matches with xG6 of 6
5Points in those matches8
8.42xPts11.12
7.86xG for9.70
12.78xG against7.30

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Valencia and Athletic Club

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • ValenciaValencia
    Ruled out
    S. Canos (Knee Injury) · J. Copete (Knee Injury) · D. Foulquier (Injury) · D. Lopez (Knee Injury) · U. Sadiq (Muscle Injury)
  • Athletic ClubAthletic Club
    Ruled out
    A. Djalo (Illness) · U. Egiluz (Knee Injury) · O. Sancet (Muscle Injury) · N. Williams (Thigh Injury)

Published 17 Oct 2026, 19:12 BST · not changed since

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