Valencia v Villarreal match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 34%Valencia win
- 27%Draw
- 39%Villarreal win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
ValenciaLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
VillarrealLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- La Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 251 of 316.
- Villarreal won 34 of 50 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
- Villarreal won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
- Valencia without a win in their last 5 home games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Valencia 2, draws 3, Villarreal 5
Goals: Valencia 10, Villarreal 13
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb 2026 | Villarreal v Valencia | 2–1 |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Valencia v Villarreal | 0–2 |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Villarreal v Valencia | 1–1 |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Valencia v Villarreal | 1–1 |
| 17 Mar 2024 | Villarreal v Valencia | 1–0 |
| 2 Jan 2024 | Valencia v Villarreal | 3–1 |
| 3 May 2023 | Valencia v Villarreal | 1–1 |
| 31 Dec 2022 | Villarreal v Valencia | 2–1 |
| 19 Apr 2022 | Villarreal v Valencia | 2–0 |
| 30 Oct 2021 | Valencia v Villarreal | 2–0 |
Home and away
ValenciaValencia at home
Last 5: 0 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost
- DrawnAthletic Club17 Oct 20260–0
- LostReal Sociedad20 Sep 20262–3
- LostBarcelona6 Sep 20260–5
- LostReal Betis25 Aug 20260–1
- DrawnCelta Vigo22 Aug 20260–0
Valencia: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 10 scored, 17 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
VillarrealVillarreal away
Last 5: 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost
- LostLiverpoolUEFA Champions League20 Oct 20263–4
- LostReal Madrid10 Oct 20260–1
- WonMalaga17 Sep 20263–1
- LostBorussia DortmundUEFA Champions League8 Sep 20262–3
- LostAlaves28 Aug 20260–1
Villarreal: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 13 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Valencia- Last match
- 7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Athletic Club · La Liga
- Next match
- 8 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Elche · La Liga
Villarreal- Last match
- 4 days before20 Oct 2026 · v Liverpool · UEFA Champions League
- Next match
- 3 days after27 Oct 2026 · v Manacor · Copa del Rey
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 26 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Villarreal
| Score | Villarreal | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 34 won, 10 drawn, 6 lost in 50 matches | 765 won, 248 drawn, 143 lost in 1156 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 5 drawn, 23 lost in 34 matches | 143 won, 248 drawn, 765 lost in 1156 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 15 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches | 328 won, 127 drawn, 60 lost in 515 matches |
| Level at half-time | 11 won, 8 drawn, 11 lost in 30 matches | 344 won, 376 drawn, 344 lost in 1064 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 9 won, 7 drawn, 5 lost in 21 matches | 264 won, 384 drawn, 264 lost in 912 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 1 won, 4 drawn, 16 lost in 21 matches | 38 won, 121 drawn, 366 lost in 525 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 70 minutes | 20 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches | 278 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 286 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 10 drawn, 5 lost in 22 matches | 206 won, 422 drawn, 206 lost in 834 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 16 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches | 411 won, 90 drawn, 12 lost in 513 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 28 won, 14 drawn, 19 lost in 61 matches | 644 won, 490 drawn, 644 lost in 1778 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 22 won, 10 drawn, 14 lost in 46 matches | 474 won, 426 drawn, 474 lost in 1374 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Villarreal | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 28 scored, 26 conceded (86) | 796 scored, 796 conceded (2462) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 13 scored, 13 conceded (37) | 284 scored, 278 conceded (835) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 7 conceded (21) | 234 scored, 234 conceded (792) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 6 conceded (28) | 278 scored, 284 conceded (835) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 19(league sides: 1,297 times, within 15 minutes 212, by full time 605)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Valencia | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| 75Since 27 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 75Since 26 Oct 2024 |
| 94.47 | xG for | 127.27 |
| 89 | Goals scored | 138 |
| 96.38 | xG against | 87.99 |
| 108 | Goals conceded | 92 |
Valencia
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | v Athletic Club | 1.49 | 0.65 | 0–0 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Racing Santander | 1.80 | 1.28 | 2–2 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Real Sociedad | 1.55 | 2.65 | 2–3 |
| 15 Sep 2026 | at Alaves | 0.65 | 1.05 | 1–0 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | at Sevilla | 0.10 | 0.93 | 0–1 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Barcelona | 0.66 | 4.08 | 0–5 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Deportivo La Coruna | 1.40 | 1.42 | 1–3 |
| 25 Aug 2026 | v Real Betis | 1.12 | 0.71 | 0–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Celta Vigo | 0.58 | 0.66 | 0–0 |
| 23 May 2026 | v Barcelona | 1.48 | 1.52 | 3–1 |
Villarreal
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | v Elche | 2.23 | 0.31 | 0–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Real Madrid | 0.59 | 1.43 | 0–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Levante | 4.27 | 0.45 | 3–1 |
| 17 Sep 2026 | at Malaga | 3.33 | 0.63 | 3–1 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | v Real Betis | 1.89 | 3.52 | 1–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Deportivo La Coruna | 1.14 | 0.79 | 2–3 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | at Alaves | 1.40 | 0.81 | 0–1 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at Atletico Madrid | 3.60 | 0.78 | 2–2 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | at Racing Santander | 0.67 | 1.87 | 2–2 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Atletico Madrid | 2.48 | 1.16 | 5–1 |
This league season
La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.
| Valencia | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 6 | Points in those matches | 9 |
| 10.41 | xPts | 16.32 |
| 9.35 | xG for | 19.12 |
| 13.43 | xG against | 10.59 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Valencia and Villarreal
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- S. Canos (Knee Injury) · J. Copete (Knee Injury) · D. Foulquier (Knee Injury) · D. Lopez (Knee Injury) · U. Sadiq (Muscle Injury)
- Ruled out
- N. Pepe (Eye injury) · C. Romero (Injury)
Published 24 Oct 2026, 16:28 BST · not changed since
All fixtures