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Serie A
Venezia
1–0Finished
Napoli
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:00 BSTMatchday 7

Venezia v Napoli match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Napoli hold a 50% chance of victory at Venezia, who are in sharp decline with five straight defeats. Expected goals stand at 2.62 total, with Napoli projected to dominate possession and chances.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 23%Venezia win
  • 27%Draw
  • 50%Napoli win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

VeneziaVenezia

Last 5: no wins, no draws, 5 defeats

NapoliNapoli

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Serie A, since 19 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 214 of 269.
  • Napoli won 41 of 52 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
  • Napoli won 3 of the last 4 meetings.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

4 meetings: Venezia 0, draws 1, Napoli 3

Goals: Venezia 0, Napoli 5

DateMatchScore
16 Mar 2025Venezia v Napoli0–0
29 Dec 2024Napoli v Venezia1–0
6 Feb 2022Venezia v Napoli0–2
22 Aug 2021Napoli v Venezia2–0

Home and away

Venezia

Venezia at home

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostLazio19 Sep 20260–2
  • LostFiorentina11 Sep 20262–4
  • LostLecce23 Aug 20260–2
  • WonModenaCoppa Italia15 Aug 20263–2
  • WonPalermoSerie B · Italy8 May 20262–0

Venezia: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
21 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Napoli

Napoli away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostVillarrealUEFA Champions League13 Oct 20261–3
  • DrawnFiorentina20 Sep 20261–1
  • LostInter5 Sep 20262–3
  • WonGenoa22 Aug 20262–0
  • WonPisa17 May 20263–0

Napoli: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Venezia
Last match
5 days before12 Oct 2026 · v Atalanta · Serie A
Next match
8 days after25 Oct 2026 · v Genoa · Serie A
Napoli
Last match
4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Villarreal · UEFA Champions League
Next match
3 days after20 Oct 2026 · v Bodo/Glimt · UEFA Champions League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 20 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Napoli

ScoreNapoliLeague sides
Scored first41 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost in 52 matches747 won, 236 drawn, 123 lost in 1106 matches
Conceded first6 won, 6 drawn, 15 lost in 27 matches123 won, 236 drawn, 747 lost in 1106 matches
1 goal up at half-time21 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 27 matches330 won, 121 drawn, 56 lost in 507 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 12 drawn, 7 lost in 30 matches316 won, 394 drawn, 316 lost in 1026 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes14 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches367 won, 111 drawn, 34 lost in 512 matches
Level after 60 minutes18 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 37 matches236 won, 406 drawn, 236 lost in 878 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes16 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches386 won, 94 drawn, 22 lost in 502 matches
Level after 70 minutes14 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 34 matches179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes25 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 29 matches430 won, 84 drawn, 11 lost in 525 matches
Level after 15 minutes30 won, 15 drawn, 13 lost in 58 matches608 won, 534 drawn, 608 lost in 1750 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes21 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 27 matches289 won, 109 drawn, 57 lost in 455 matches
Level after 30 minutes20 won, 10 drawn, 10 lost in 40 matches443 won, 424 drawn, 443 lost in 1310 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreNapoliLeague sides
All matches20 scored, 21 conceded (85)695 scored, 695 conceded (2402)
When leading after 75 minutes3 scored, 9 conceded (41)243 scored, 223 conceded (812)
When level after 75 minutes12 scored, 5 conceded (27)229 scored, 229 conceded (778)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 31 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 18(league sides: 1,232 times, within 15 minutes 182, by full time 549)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 20 Oct 2024

VeneziaNapoli
37Matches with xG75
40.73xG for104.96
32Goals scored113
60.22xG against70.84
60Goals conceded64

Venezia

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Venezia: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
12 Oct 2026at Atalanta2.482.191–3
19 Sep 2026v Lazio1.891.600–2
11 Sep 2026v Fiorentina0.493.312–4
6 Sep 2026at Frosinone2.171.902–3
28 Aug 2026at AC Milan0.802.210–2
23 Aug 2026v Lecce2.052.700–2
25 May 2025v Juventus0.881.962–3
18 May 2025at Cagliari0.681.520–3
12 May 2025v Fiorentina1.870.942–1
2 May 2025at Torino0.662.131–1

Napoli

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Napoli: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026v Frosinone3.121.013–0
20 Sep 2026at Fiorentina1.401.141–1
13 Sep 2026v Bologna1.190.291–0
5 Sep 2026at Inter2.433.862–3
30 Aug 2026v Como1.391.051–2
22 Aug 2026at Genoa0.770.672–0
24 May 2026v Udinese1.760.371–0
17 May 2026at Pisa1.090.823–0
11 May 2026v Bologna0.801.262–3
2 May 2026at Como0.661.790–0

This league season

Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.

VeneziaNapoli
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
0Points in those matches10
6.46xPts9.95
9.88xG for10.30
13.91xG against8.02

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Venezia and Napoli

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • VeneziaVenezia
    Ruled out
    A. Adorante (Hernia) · A. Bella-Kotchap (Thigh Injury) · G. Busio (Thigh Injury) · T. Correia (Thigh Injury) · B. Franjic (Shoulder Injury) · M. Sverko (Hip Injury)
  • NapoliNapoli
    Ruled out
    A. Buongiorno (Knee Injury) · David Neres (Thigh Injury) · C. Favasuli (Thigh Injury) · A. Vergara (Calf Injury)

Published 17 Oct 2026, 12:57 BST · not changed since

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