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La Liga
Villarreal
0–0Finished
Elche
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:15 BSTMatchday 9

Villarreal v Elche match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Villarreal are strong favourites at home with a 60.5% win probability, bolstered by two wins over Elche this season. The hosts expect nearly twice as many goals as their visitors, though injuries to key attacking players may dampen that advantage.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 61%Villarreal win
  • 22%Draw
  • 17%Elche win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

VillarrealVillarreal

Last 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats

ElcheElche

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Villarreal won 34 of 50 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
  • Elche avoided defeat in 9 of 27 matches in which their opponent scored first, since 18 Aug 2025.
  • Villarreal won 4 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 10 of Villarreal's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

6 meetings: Villarreal 4, draws 0, Elche 2

Goals: Villarreal 14, Elche 7

DateMatchScore
8 Mar 2026Villarreal v Elche2–1
3 Jan 2026Elche v Villarreal1–3
4 Feb 2023Elche v Villarreal3–1
4 Sep 2022Villarreal v Elche4–0
16 Jan 2022Elche v Villarreal1–0
22 Sep 2021Villarreal v Elche4–1

Home and away

Villarreal

Villarreal at home

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonNapoliUEFA Champions League13 Oct 20263–1
  • WonLevante20 Sep 20263–1
  • LostReal Betis14 Sep 20261–2
  • LostDeportivo La Coruna5 Sep 20262–3
  • WonAtletico Madrid24 May 20265–1

Villarreal: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
27 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
10 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
10 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10
Elche

Elche away

Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonEspanyol18 Sep 20263–1
  • DrawnAthletic Club12 Sep 20261–1
  • LostRacing Santander28 Aug 20262–3
  • DrawnDeportivo La Coruna17 Aug 20261–1
  • DrawnGirona23 May 20261–1

Elche: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 18 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
9 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Villarreal
Last match
4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Napoli · UEFA Champions League
Next match
3 days after20 Oct 2026 · v Liverpool · UEFA Champions League
Elche
Last match
6 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Celta Vigo · La Liga
Next match
7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Rayo Vallecano · La Liga

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Villarreal

Since 20 Oct 2024

ScoreVillarrealLeague sides
Scored first34 won, 11 drawn, 5 lost in 50 matches757 won, 246 drawn, 143 lost in 1146 matches
Conceded first6 won, 5 drawn, 23 lost in 34 matches143 won, 246 drawn, 757 lost in 1146 matches
1 goal up at half-time15 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches326 won, 125 drawn, 60 lost in 511 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 7 drawn, 10 lost in 28 matches342 won, 372 drawn, 342 lost in 1056 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes14 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches363 won, 120 drawn, 38 lost in 521 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes1 won, 4 drawn, 16 lost in 21 matches38 won, 120 drawn, 363 lost in 521 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes20 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches274 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 282 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 9 drawn, 5 lost in 21 matches205 won, 416 drawn, 205 lost in 826 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes16 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches409 won, 89 drawn, 12 lost in 510 matches
Level after 15 minutes28 won, 14 drawn, 19 lost in 61 matches639 won, 484 drawn, 639 lost in 1762 matches
Level after 30 minutes22 won, 10 drawn, 14 lost in 46 matches471 won, 420 drawn, 471 lost in 1362 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreVillarrealLeague sides
All matches27 scored, 27 conceded (85)788 scored, 788 conceded (2438)
When leading after 75 minutes13 scored, 14 conceded (38)280 scored, 275 conceded (827)
When level after 75 minutes10 scored, 7 conceded (20)233 scored, 233 conceded (784)
When trailing after 75 minutes4 scored, 6 conceded (27)275 scored, 280 conceded (827)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 43 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 19(league sides: 1,287 times, within 15 minutes 212, by full time 602)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Elche

Since 18 Aug 2025

ScoreElcheLeague sides
Conceded first2 won, 7 drawn, 18 lost in 27 matches143 won, 246 drawn, 757 lost in 1146 matches
Level at half-time5 won, 10 drawn, 7 lost in 22 matches342 won, 372 drawn, 342 lost in 1056 matches
Level after 15 minutes7 won, 13 drawn, 9 lost in 29 matches639 won, 484 drawn, 639 lost in 1762 matches
Level after 30 minutes6 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 25 matches471 won, 420 drawn, 471 lost in 1362 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreElcheLeague sides
All matches15 scored, 22 conceded (46)788 scored, 788 conceded (2438)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 30 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 17(league sides: 1,287 times, within 15 minutes 212, by full time 602)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

VillarrealElche
75Since 20 Oct 2024Matches with xG46Since 18 Aug 2025
125.95xG for51.68
139Goals scored60
89.66xG against77.46
93Goals conceded74

Villarreal

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Villarreal: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026at Real Madrid0.591.430–1
20 Sep 2026v Levante4.270.453–1
17 Sep 2026at Malaga3.330.633–1
14 Sep 2026v Real Betis1.893.521–2
5 Sep 2026v Deportivo La Coruna1.140.792–3
28 Aug 2026at Alaves1.400.810–1
23 Aug 2026at Atletico Madrid3.600.782–2
16 Aug 2026at Racing Santander0.671.872–2
24 May 2026v Atletico Madrid2.481.165–1
17 May 2026at Rayo Vallecano0.971.490–2

Elche

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Elche: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
11 Oct 2026v Celta Vigo0.780.470–0
18 Sep 2026at Espanyol1.611.053–1
15 Sep 2026v Real Madrid0.783.612–3
12 Sep 2026at Athletic Club0.842.391–1
7 Sep 2026v Real Sociedad2.470.582–3
28 Aug 2026at Racing Santander1.031.722–3
23 Aug 2026v Barcelona0.704.380–5
17 Aug 2026at Deportivo La Coruna1.230.341–1
23 May 2026at Girona0.180.581–1
17 May 2026v Getafe0.660.111–0

This league season

La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.

VillarrealElche
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
8Points in those matches6
13.72xPts9.69
16.89xG for9.44
10.28xG against14.54

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Villarreal and Elche

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • VillarrealVillarreal
    Ruled out
    T. Buchanan (Muscle Injury) · N. Pepe (Eye injury)
  • ElcheElcheNo injuries or suspensions reported.

Published 17 Oct 2026, 14:12 BST · not changed since

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