Watford v Burnley match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 36%Watford win
- 29%Draw
- 35%Burnley win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
WatfordLast 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats
BurnleyLast 5: no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Watford won 19 of 29 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Burnley won 22 of 31 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Burnley won 3 of the last 6 meetings.
- Burnley without a win in their last 5 away games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
6 meetings: Watford 1, draws 2, Burnley 3
Goals: Watford 5, Burnley 7
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2025 | Watford v Burnley | 1–2 |
| 21 Dec 2024 | Burnley v Watford | 2–1 |
| 14 Feb 2023 | Burnley v Watford | 1–1 |
| 12 Aug 2022 | Watford v Burnley | 1–0 |
| 30 Apr 2022 | Watford v BurnleyPremier League | 1–2 |
| 5 Feb 2022 | Burnley v WatfordPremier League | 0–0 |
Home and away
WatfordWatford at home
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- LostStoke City12 Sep 20261–2
- WonPreston8 Sep 20262–1
- DrawnWest Ham29 Aug 20261–1
- LostPeterboroughLeague Cup25 Aug 20261–5
- WonSouthampton16 Aug 20262–1
Watford: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 10 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
BurnleyBurnley away
Last 5: 0 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost
- LostSwansea12 Sep 20261–3
- DrawnWrexham8 Sep 20261–1
- LostNorwich29 Aug 20261–4
- DrawnBradfordLeague Cup26 Aug 20260–0 PEN
- LostWest Brom23 Aug 20261–3
Burnley: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 8 scored, 25 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Watford- Last match
- 22 days before18 Sep 2026 · v Bristol City · Championship
- Next match
- 3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Cardiff · Championship
Burnley- Last match
- 21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Derby · Championship
- Next match
- 3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Charlton · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Watford
| Score | Watford | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 19 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 29 matches | 1090 won, 342 drawn, 211 lost in 1643 matches |
| Conceded first | 8 won, 13 drawn, 36 lost in 57 matches | 211 won, 342 drawn, 1090 lost in 1643 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 39 matches | 450 won, 572 drawn, 450 lost in 1472 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 5 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 26 matches | 93 won, 162 drawn, 496 lost in 751 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 7 won, 16 drawn, 6 lost in 29 matches | 336 won, 576 drawn, 336 lost in 1248 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 2 won, 3 drawn, 19 lost in 24 matches | 64 won, 167 drawn, 525 lost in 756 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 8 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches | 271 won, 624 drawn, 271 lost in 1166 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 4 drawn, 20 lost in 25 matches | 43 won, 147 drawn, 553 lost in 743 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 19 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches | 629 won, 115 drawn, 17 lost in 761 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 2 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches | 170 won, 696 drawn, 170 lost in 1036 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 1 won, 4 drawn, 20 lost in 25 matches | 17 won, 115 drawn, 629 lost in 761 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 15 won, 20 drawn, 27 lost in 62 matches | 898 won, 730 drawn, 898 lost in 2526 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 10 won, 18 drawn, 18 lost in 46 matches | 638 won, 622 drawn, 638 lost in 1898 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 6 won, 7 drawn, 14 lost in 27 matches | 104 won, 144 drawn, 430 lost in 678 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Watford | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 26 scored, 20 conceded (91) | 1017 scored, 1017 conceded (3534) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 4 scored, 6 conceded (25) | 336 scored, 365 conceded (1227) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 5 conceded (25) | 316 scored, 316 conceded (1080) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 9 conceded (41) | 365 scored, 336 conceded (1227) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 59 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 23(league sides: 1,851 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 822)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Burnley
| Score | Burnley | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 22 won, 4 drawn, 5 lost in 31 matches | 1090 won, 342 drawn, 211 lost in 1643 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 11 drawn, 24 lost in 40 matches | 211 won, 342 drawn, 1090 lost in 1643 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 18 drawn, 8 lost in 35 matches | 450 won, 572 drawn, 450 lost in 1472 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches | 93 won, 162 drawn, 496 lost in 751 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 3 won, 21 drawn, 5 lost in 29 matches | 336 won, 576 drawn, 336 lost in 1248 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 3 won, 22 drawn, 6 lost in 31 matches | 271 won, 624 drawn, 271 lost in 1166 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 2 won, 22 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches | 170 won, 696 drawn, 170 lost in 1036 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 17 won, 20 drawn, 16 lost in 53 matches | 898 won, 730 drawn, 898 lost in 2526 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 11 won, 19 drawn, 15 lost in 45 matches | 638 won, 622 drawn, 638 lost in 1898 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Burnley | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 21 scored, 22 conceded (83) | 1017 scored, 1017 conceded (3534) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 5 conceded (26) | 336 scored, 365 conceded (1227) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 9 conceded (30) | 316 scored, 316 conceded (1080) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 8 conceded (27) | 365 scored, 336 conceded (1227) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 23(league sides: 1,851 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 822)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Watford | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|
| 91 | Matches with xG | 83 |
| 105.21 | xG for | 91.62 |
| 99 | Goals scored | 102 |
| 116.10 | xG against | 118.78 |
| 122 | Goals conceded | 104 |
Watford
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | at Bristol City | 0.52 | 1.56 | 0–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Stoke City | 0.39 | 1.50 | 1–2 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | v Preston | 1.26 | 2.44 | 2–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at West Brom | 1.26 | 1.14 | 0–1 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | at Swansea | 0.88 | 2.71 | 0–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v West Ham | 1.60 | 0.89 | 1–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Wrexham | 0.65 | 1.92 | 1–1 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | v Southampton | 0.81 | 1.71 | 2–1 |
| 2 May 2026 | v Coventry | 1.70 | 1.39 | 0–4 |
| 25 Apr 2026 | at Middlesbrough | 0.85 | 2.30 | 1–5 |
Burnley
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Derby | 0.45 | 1.75 | 1–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Swansea | 1.73 | 2.63 | 1–3 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | at Wrexham | 1.50 | 1.28 | 1–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Bristol City | 0.26 | 1.06 | 1–2 |
| 2 Sep 2026 | v Middlesbrough | 0.64 | 1.22 | 1–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Norwich | 1.38 | 2.30 | 1–4 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at West Brom | 1.18 | 1.63 | 1–3 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | v West Ham | 2.33 | 1.33 | 2–2 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Wolves | 0.98 | 2.09 | 1–1 |
| 18 May 2026 | at Arsenal | 0.19 | 1.29 | 0–1 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Watford | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 8 | Points in those matches | 4 |
| 6.96 | xPts | 8.36 |
| 7.37 | xG for | 9.47 |
| 13.87 | xG against | 13.20 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Watford and Burnley
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Published 10 Oct 2026, 14:03 BST · not changed since
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