Watford v Charlton match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Watford hold a narrow advantage at 38% to win, though Charlton's 33% chance means this is competitive. The model expects just 2.47 goals. Both sides are depleted by injuries heading into this Championship match.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 38%Watford win
- 29%Draw
- 33%Charlton win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
WatfordLast 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats
CharltonLast 5: no wins, 4 draws, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Watford won 19 of 29 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Charlton won 15 of 25 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Aug 2025.
- Charlton without a win in their last 5 away games.
- Both teams scored in 8 of Charlton's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
2 meetings: Watford 0, draws 1, Charlton 1
Goals: Watford 1, Charlton 2
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 6 Apr 2026 | Watford v Charlton | 1–1 |
| 9 Aug 2025 | Charlton v Watford | 1–0 |
Home and away
WatfordWatford at home
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- LostBurnley10 Oct 20260–4
- LostStoke City12 Sep 20261–2
- WonPreston8 Sep 20262–1
- DrawnWest Ham29 Aug 20261–1
- LostPeterboroughLeague Cup25 Aug 20261–5
Watford: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 10 scored, 17 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
CharltonCharlton away
Last 5: 0 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost
- DrawnBurnley13 Oct 20262–2
- LostCardiff19 Sep 20261–3
- LostStoke City5 Sep 20260–4
- DrawnWest Brom2 Sep 20261–1
- LostTottenhamLeague Cup26 Aug 20261–5
Charlton: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 17 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Watford- Last match
- 4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Cardiff · Championship
- Next match
- 7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Wolves · Championship
Charlton- Last match
- 4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Burnley · Championship
- Next match
- 7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Norwich · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Watford
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Score | Watford | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 19 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 29 matches | 1108 won, 345 drawn, 214 lost in 1667 matches |
| Conceded first | 8 won, 13 drawn, 38 lost in 59 matches | 214 won, 345 drawn, 1108 lost in 1667 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 39 matches | 457 won, 574 drawn, 457 lost in 1488 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 5 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 26 matches | 94 won, 164 drawn, 504 lost in 762 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 7 won, 16 drawn, 6 lost in 29 matches | 342 won, 578 drawn, 342 lost in 1262 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 2 won, 3 drawn, 19 lost in 24 matches | 64 won, 169 drawn, 534 lost in 767 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 8 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches | 277 won, 626 drawn, 277 lost in 1180 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 4 drawn, 20 lost in 25 matches | 44 won, 149 drawn, 560 lost in 753 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 19 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches | 640 won, 117 drawn, 17 lost in 774 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 2 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches | 173 won, 698 drawn, 173 lost in 1044 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 1 won, 4 drawn, 20 lost in 25 matches | 17 won, 117 drawn, 640 lost in 774 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 15 won, 20 drawn, 27 lost in 62 matches | 917 won, 732 drawn, 917 lost in 2566 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 10 won, 18 drawn, 18 lost in 46 matches | 651 won, 626 drawn, 651 lost in 1928 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 6 won, 7 drawn, 15 lost in 28 matches | 106 won, 145 drawn, 434 lost in 685 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Watford | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 27 scored, 22 conceded (93) | 1036 scored, 1036 conceded (3582) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 4 scored, 6 conceded (25) | 344 scored, 373 conceded (1247) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 5 conceded (25) | 319 scored, 319 conceded (1088) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 15 scored, 11 conceded (43) | 373 scored, 344 conceded (1247) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 61 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 23(league sides: 1,878 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 833)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Charlton
Since 9 Aug 2025
| Score | Charlton | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 15 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 25 matches | 1108 won, 345 drawn, 214 lost in 1667 matches |
| Conceded first | 1 won, 8 drawn, 18 lost in 27 matches | 214 won, 345 drawn, 1108 lost in 1667 matches |
| Level at half-time | 11 won, 12 drawn, 9 lost in 32 matches | 457 won, 574 drawn, 457 lost in 1488 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 7 won, 6 drawn, 7 lost in 20 matches | 342 won, 578 drawn, 342 lost in 1262 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 11 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches | 277 won, 626 drawn, 277 lost in 1180 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 15 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches | 173 won, 698 drawn, 173 lost in 1044 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 15 won, 17 drawn, 11 lost in 43 matches | 917 won, 732 drawn, 917 lost in 2566 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 12 won, 16 drawn, 9 lost in 37 matches | 651 won, 626 drawn, 651 lost in 1928 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Charlton | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 14 scored, 15 conceded (56) | 1036 scored, 1036 conceded (3582) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 3 conceded (20) | 319 scored, 319 conceded (1088) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 8 conceded (22) | 373 scored, 344 conceded (1247) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 31 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 14(league sides: 1,878 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 833)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Watford | Charlton | |
|---|---|---|
| 93Since 19 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 56Since 9 Aug 2025 |
| 107.31 | xG for | 57.13 |
| 100 | Goals scored | 54 |
| 121.71 | xG against | 78.06 |
| 131 | Goals conceded | 71 |
Watford
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | at Cardiff | 1.46 | 3.67 | 1–5 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Burnley | 0.64 | 1.94 | 0–4 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | at Bristol City | 0.52 | 1.56 | 0–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Stoke City | 0.39 | 1.50 | 1–2 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | v Preston | 1.26 | 2.44 | 2–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at West Brom | 1.26 | 1.14 | 0–1 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | at Swansea | 0.88 | 2.71 | 0–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v West Ham | 1.60 | 0.89 | 1–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Wrexham | 0.65 | 1.92 | 1–1 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | v Southampton | 0.81 | 1.71 | 2–1 |
Charlton
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | at Burnley | 2.13 | 1.08 | 2–2 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Bristol City | 1.78 | 1.47 | 1–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Cardiff | 1.26 | 2.60 | 1–3 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Portsmouth | 0.82 | 0.40 | 0–0 |
| 9 Sep 2026 | v QPR | 0.48 | 1.10 | 0–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Stoke City | 0.61 | 2.14 | 0–4 |
| 2 Sep 2026 | at West Brom | 0.39 | 0.57 | 1–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Preston | 0.74 | 1.32 | 1–0 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at West Ham | 0.62 | 2.84 | 2–1 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v Derby | 0.97 | 1.00 | 2–1 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Watford | Charlton | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 of 10 | Matches with xG | 10 of 10 |
| 8 | Points in those matches | 14 |
| 7.94 | xPts | 10.85 |
| 9.47 | xG for | 9.80 |
| 19.48 | xG against | 14.52 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Watford and Charlton
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Doubtful
- T. Akomeah (Lacking Match Fitness) · M. Antonio (Inactive) · K. Baah (Knock) · E. Bove (Knee Injury) · J. Ngakia (Thigh Injury)
- Ruled out
- R. Apter (Knee Injury) · C. Sichenje (Knee Injury)
- Doubtful
- N. Chalobah (Muscle Injury) · M. Godden (Muscle Injury)
Published 17 Oct 2026, 11:27 BST · not changed since
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