Watford v Lincoln match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Tue 3 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
The model gives Lincoln a 39% chance to win this Championship match, with Watford at 33% and a draw at 28%. Expected goals are close at 2.65 total, with a 0.15 gap in Lincoln's favour. Watford have won just one of their last five matches, while Lincoln have one win, one draw and three losses in the same period.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 33%Watford win
- 28%Draw
- 39%Lincoln win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
WatfordLast 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats
- lost2–3at Norwich
- lost0–1at Wolves
- won2–0v Charlton
- lost1–5at Cardiff
- lost0–4v Burnley
LincolnLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
- lost1–3v Birmingham
- won4–1v Burnley
- drew2–2at Millwall
- lost0–6v West Ham
- lost0–3at Sheffield Utd
Head-to-head
Head-to-head data was not available for this match.
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Watford won 19 of 30 matches in which they scored first, since 5 Nov 2024.
- Lincoln won 40 of 52 matches in which they scored first, since 1 Mar 2025.
Home and away
WatfordWatford at home
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- WonCharlton17 Oct 20262–0
- LostBurnley10 Oct 20260–4
- LostStoke City12 Sep 20261–2
- WonPreston8 Sep 20262–1
- DrawnWest Ham29 Aug 20261–1
Watford: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 9 scored, 16 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
LincolnLincoln away
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- DrawnMillwall17 Oct 20262–2
- LostSheffield Utd10 Oct 20260–3
- WonBristol City15 Sep 20261–0
- WonPreston12 Sep 20261–0
- LostBournemouthLeague Cup8 Sep 20260–4
Lincoln: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 14 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Watford- Last match
- 3 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Norwich · Championship
- Next match
- 4 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Middlesbrough · Championship
Lincoln- Last match
- 3 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Birmingham · Championship
- Next match
- 4 days after7 Nov 2026 · v QPR · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Watford
Since 5 Nov 2024
| Score | Watford | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 19 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost in 30 matches | 1131 won, 350 drawn, 219 lost in 1700 matches |
| Conceded first | 8 won, 13 drawn, 40 lost in 61 matches | 219 won, 350 drawn, 1131 lost in 1700 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 39 matches | 465 won, 584 drawn, 465 lost in 1514 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 5 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 26 matches | 95 won, 165 drawn, 515 lost in 775 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 13 won, 6 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches | 545 won, 171 drawn, 67 lost in 783 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 7 won, 16 drawn, 6 lost in 29 matches | 343 won, 588 drawn, 343 lost in 1274 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 2 won, 3 drawn, 19 lost in 24 matches | 67 won, 171 drawn, 545 lost in 783 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 8 won, 16 drawn, 5 lost in 29 matches | 279 won, 636 drawn, 279 lost in 1194 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 4 drawn, 21 lost in 26 matches | 46 won, 152 drawn, 572 lost in 770 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 19 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches | 649 won, 120 drawn, 18 lost in 787 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 3 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 23 matches | 175 won, 708 drawn, 175 lost in 1058 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 1 won, 4 drawn, 22 lost in 27 matches | 18 won, 120 drawn, 649 lost in 787 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 15 won, 20 drawn, 28 lost in 63 matches | 931 won, 746 drawn, 931 lost in 2608 matches |
| 1 goal down after 15 minutes | 5 won, 2 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches | 73 won, 99 drawn, 302 lost in 474 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 11 won, 18 drawn, 19 lost in 48 matches | 663 won, 638 drawn, 663 lost in 1964 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 6 won, 7 drawn, 15 lost in 28 matches | 108 won, 147 drawn, 444 lost in 699 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Watford | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 27 scored, 21 conceded (96) | 1056 scored, 1056 conceded (3654) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 3 scored, 5 conceded (24) | 353 scored, 380 conceded (1276) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 5 conceded (26) | 323 scored, 323 conceded (1102) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 15 scored, 11 conceded (46) | 380 scored, 353 conceded (1276) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 64 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 23(league sides: 1,916 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 846)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Lincoln
Since 1 Mar 2025
| Score | Lincoln | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 40 won, 8 drawn, 4 lost in 52 matches | 1131 won, 350 drawn, 219 lost in 1700 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 23 matches | 219 won, 350 drawn, 1131 lost in 1700 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 25 won, 6 drawn, 3 lost in 34 matches | 515 won, 165 drawn, 95 lost in 775 matches |
| Level at half-time | 13 won, 6 drawn, 5 lost in 24 matches | 465 won, 584 drawn, 465 lost in 1514 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 22 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 29 matches | 545 won, 171 drawn, 67 lost in 783 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 21 won, 6 drawn, 1 lost in 28 matches | 572 won, 152 drawn, 46 lost in 770 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 19 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches | 649 won, 120 drawn, 18 lost in 787 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 32 won, 8 drawn, 13 lost in 53 matches | 931 won, 746 drawn, 931 lost in 2608 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 19 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 26 matches | 444 won, 147 drawn, 108 lost in 699 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 22 won, 6 drawn, 10 lost in 38 matches | 663 won, 638 drawn, 663 lost in 1964 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Lincoln | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 27 scored, 23 conceded (78) | 1056 scored, 1056 conceded (3654) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 15 scored, 13 conceded (45) | 353 scored, 380 conceded (1276) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 25 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 11(league sides: 1,916 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 846)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 5 Nov 2024
| Watford | Lincoln | |
|---|---|---|
| 92 | Matches with xG | — |
| 104.06 | xG for | — |
| 96 | Goals scored | — |
| 120.48 | xG against | — |
| 128 | Goals conceded | — |
Watford
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | at Norwich | 1.00 | 1.19 | 2–3 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | at Wolves | 0.15 | 1.88 | 0–1 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | v Charlton | 2.87 | 1.31 | 2–0 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | at Cardiff | 1.46 | 3.67 | 1–5 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Burnley | 0.64 | 1.94 | 0–4 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | at Bristol City | 0.52 | 1.56 | 0–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Stoke City | 0.39 | 1.50 | 1–2 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | v Preston | 1.26 | 2.44 | 2–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at West Brom | 1.26 | 1.14 | 0–1 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | at Swansea | 0.88 | 2.71 | 0–2 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Watford | Lincoln | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 of 13 | Matches with xG | 13 of 13 |
| 11 | Points in those matches | 15 |
| 11.64 | xPts | 17.24 |
| 13.49 | xG for | 17.34 |
| 23.86 | xG against | 19.61 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Watford and Lincoln
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- M. Antonio (Inactive) · K. Baah (Knock) · E. Bove (Knee Injury) · S. Coulibaly (Hamstring Injury) · J. Ngakia (Thigh Injury)
- Ruled out
- T. Darikwa (Knee Injury) · M. Melia (Thigh Injury) · E. Wheatley (Inactive)
Published 3 Nov 2026, 18:43 GMT · not changed since
All fixtures