Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07 match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Werder Bremen are expected to win at home with a 49% chance against Paderborn's 26%, though a draw at 25% is also plausible. Bremen are missing eight players to injury, which could affect their ability to control proceedings. The model expects 2.95 goals overall.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 49%Werder Bremen win
- 25%Draw
- 26%SC Paderborn 07 win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
Werder BremenLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
SC Paderborn 07Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Werder Bremen won 17 of 25 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- Bundesliga, since 18 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 148 of 197.
- Werder Bremen won 2 of the last 4 meetings.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
4 meetings: Werder Bremen 2, draws 1, SC Paderborn 07 1
Goals: Werder Bremen 8, SC Paderborn 07 9
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2024 | SC Paderborn 07 v Werder BremenDFB Pokal | 0–1 |
| 19 Oct 2022 | SC Paderborn 07 v Werder BremenDFB Pokal | 2–2 PEN |
| 22 Jan 2022 | SC Paderborn 07 v Werder Bremen2. Bundesliga | 3–4 |
| 15 Aug 2021 | Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga | 1–4 |
Home and away
Werder BremenWerder Bremen at home
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- WonFC Augsburg19 Sep 20263–2
- WonRB Leipzig5 Sep 20263–1
- LostBorussia Dortmund16 May 20260–2
- LostFC Augsburg2 May 20261–3
- WonHamburger SV18 Apr 20263–1
Werder Bremen: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 14 scored, 17 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07 away
Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- LostBorussia Dortmund12 Sep 20260–3
- DrawnFSV Mainz 0529 Aug 20260–0
- WonPhönix LübeckDFB Pokal23 Aug 20264–2
- DrawnVfL Wolfsburg21 May 20260–0
- WonSV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga17 May 20262–0
SC Paderborn 07: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 10 scored, 12 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Werder Bremen- Last match
- 8 days before9 Oct 2026 · v Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga
- Next match
- 7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga
SC Paderborn 07- Last match
- 7 days before10 Oct 2026 · v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Next match
- 7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Hamburger SV · Bundesliga
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 20 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Werder Bremen
| Score | Werder Bremen | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 17 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 25 matches | 599 won, 195 drawn, 125 lost in 919 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 8 drawn, 26 lost in 39 matches | 125 won, 195 drawn, 599 lost in 919 matches |
| Level at half-time | 8 won, 9 drawn, 5 lost in 22 matches | 200 won, 286 drawn, 200 lost in 686 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 2 won, 5 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches | 55 won, 92 drawn, 266 lost in 413 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 15 won, 11 drawn, 17 lost in 43 matches | 483 won, 354 drawn, 483 lost in 1320 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 7 won, 10 drawn, 12 lost in 29 matches | 317 won, 308 drawn, 317 lost in 942 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 5 won, 4 drawn, 12 lost in 21 matches | 60 won, 82 drawn, 246 lost in 388 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Werder Bremen | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 33 scored, 27 conceded (67) | 700 scored, 700 conceded (1940) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 6 conceded (20) | 295 scored, 262 conceded (728) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 15 scored, 16 conceded (34) | 262 scored, 295 conceded (728) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 17(league sides: 1,114 times, within 15 minutes 192, by full time 508)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 20 Oct 2024
| Werder Bremen | SC Paderborn 07 | |
|---|---|---|
| 67 | Matches with xG | — |
| 91.30 | xG for | — |
| 93 | Goals scored | — |
| 104.45 | xG against | — |
| 115 | Goals conceded | — |
Werder Bremen
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | at Borussia Dortmund | 1.13 | 2.42 | 2–2 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v FC Augsburg | 2.78 | 1.12 | 3–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at 1. FC Köln | 1.12 | 1.65 | 1–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v RB Leipzig | 0.95 | 1.50 | 3–1 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at SC Freiburg | 0.54 | 2.37 | 1–4 |
| 16 May 2026 | v Borussia Dortmund | 0.49 | 2.74 | 0–2 |
| 9 May 2026 | at 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.07 | 1.52 | 0–1 |
| 2 May 2026 | v FC Augsburg | 1.35 | 2.57 | 1–3 |
| 26 Apr 2026 | at VfB Stuttgart | 0.93 | 1.82 | 1–1 |
| 18 Apr 2026 | v Hamburger SV | 1.74 | 0.57 | 3–1 |
This league season
Bundesliga matches since 28 Aug 2026.
| Werder Bremen | SC Paderborn 07 | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of 5 | Matches with xG | 5 of 5 |
| 8 | Points in those matches | 4 |
| 5.33 | xPts | 4.35 |
| 6.52 | xG for | 4.63 |
| 9.06 | xG against | 8.20 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- F. Agu (Calf Injury) · S. Alvero (Calf Injury) · S. Lynen (Hip Injury) · S. Musah (Muscle Injury) · M. N'Diaye (Groin Injury) · J. Njinmah (Thigh Injury) · J. Stage (Muscle Injury) · K. Topp (Knee Injury)
- Ruled out
- N. Awortwie-Grant (Knee Injury) · T. Gayret (Knee Injury) · S. Klaas (Muscle Injury)
Published 17 Oct 2026, 13:27 BST · not changed since
All fixtures